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Em Econ 101

Em Econ 101. Robin Hanson Economics, George Mason University Affiliate, Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Chief Scientist, Consensus Point Blog: Overcoming Bias. Disown Your Descendants?. Parents sometimes disown kids Should at least know lots on what kids up to

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Em Econ 101

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  1. Em Econ 101 Robin Hanson Economics, George Mason University Affiliate, Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Chief Scientist, Consensus Point Blog: Overcoming Bias

  2. Disown Your Descendants? • Parents sometimes disown kids • Should at least know lots on what kids up to • Would our distant ancestors disown us? • E.g., farmers wince at our promiscuity, religion • Your descendants will similarly differ • Don’t disown till you know much detail • If not disown, detail can help you nudge them in directions you like (don’t assume you can more than nudge)

  3. Recent US GDP Growth

  4. World Product, 1950-2006

  5. World Product, 1-2000

  6. World Product, 10K BC-2K AD Singularities!

  7. World Product, 2 Million BC+

  8. Error 9.6% 2.0% 1.7%

  9. Bigger Brains Millions of Years

  10. World Product Growth Rate Could It Happen Again? Industry Farming Hunting Brains

  11. Growth Mode Statistics

  12. Forecasting The Next Mode Sample growth rate transition Transition date

  13. What Could Start New Mode? • Space? • Fusion? • Nanotech? • Robots?

  14. Industry Shares of US GDP

  15. Factor Shares of Income

  16. Needed To Emulate Brains • Model each brain cell type • Scan – freeze, slice, 2D scan • Computers (very parallel)

  17. Key: Which Tech Ready Last? • Computing • Smooth anticipated transition • Many participate as equals • Scanning (least likely?) • Big coalitions, first wins; cross-invest! • Most descend from one human? • Modeling • When and who may be big surprise

  18. My Futurism Method • To see in fog, focus on a big sharp change • Combine 2 fields’ standard methods/beliefs: • Brain research, Economics • Focus on see next key era, not eras after • Assume mostly-opaque brain ems • Seek typical, post transition equilbrium • Look 1st at low regulation compete scenario • Sign parameters as market failure directions • Make tentative estimates in all life areas

  19. Generic BIG Future • Better techs, institutions, org design • Bigger orgs & contracts, more coordination • More work specialization, niche products • Better/cheaper music, stories, art, games • More unequal cities, firms, achievement • Generic Fast Grow Future: • Less transport, more local produce • Premium on fast flexible ways, governance

  20. Robot Implications • Immortality- yet maybe can’t afford • Travel– transmit to new body (but is secure?) • Nature – don’t need ecosystems • Labor – work gets less tool intensive • Copies! • Train once, use many times • One source can dominate a profession • Malthusian population explosion, rapid growth • Wages fall to fast-falling hardware cost • Happens if slave or free; only Draconian law can stop

  21. Emulations Feel Human • They remember a human life • Retain human styles/personalities • love, gossip, argue, sing, play, laugh, … • More alienated worlds (as were farms, factories) • Office work, leisure in virtual reality (VR) • Physical work (~20%?) in physical bodies • More unequal abilities, like our fantasy • Can have very different bodies, mind speeds • Loyalty testable via sims, shallow mind reading • Many humans not think are conscious, “is me” • But same social implications, a few do it is plenty

  22. Humans Eclipsed • Wages < human subsistence • Except as direct demand for humans, e.g., servants • But rich if held non-wage assets • Investments double as fast as economy • Robot-Human war unlikely if integrate, same law • E.g., we don’t kill retirees, take their stuff • Most emulationsare of the few best humans • Workaholic, ok with alienation & oft lose memories • First movers win? Billionaires? No kids? Few fems? • Most copies of <~300 “one names”?

  23. Varieties of Lives Time

  24. SEDT = Subjective economy doubling time X1 Talk: Earth+ Height: 1.7m Year in: Year SEDT: month Talking Circles x24 Talk: 1200km Height: 7cm Year in: ½ month SEDT: 2yr x15 Talk: 80km Height: 5mm Year in: day SEDT: 35yr x15 Talk: 5km Height: 0.3mm Year in: 95min SEDT: 500yr (billions fit in a skyscraper)

  25. HumanBosses 4 per boss, 5 levels, => 341 Employees: 256 Line workers 64 Line bosses 21 Higher bosses • Often fail to • coordinate • Crucial to put • best at top

  26. Fast EmBosses • Let one ~x21 speed em • do all 21 boss jobs • Boss cost to switch jobs • Temp fast to meet boss • Coordinate better! Rich fast boss can own big % of firm, lowering agency failures

  27. Typical “Weekly” Activities Example • Lots more work • Less sleep • In virtual reality, less shop, personal care, housework, meds • No kid/elderly care • Socialize is functional • Need clean, eat rituals? Mind alter?

  28. A Team Cycle of “Life” • Bid: Teams & investors bid to do new job • Futarchy, combo auctions to pick, govern? • Train: maybe many copies, keep best • Vacation: Best rests, then copied lots • Job: team does job, socialize inside more • Metrics -> investor payoff, leisure, reputation • Retire: archive, revive for fun, ritual, judge • Spawn: Investors may pick for new bids

  29. “Death” • Few hour spur is like no-memory party • For longer tasks, select folks not mind end • Precaution: outside control to evict mind • Incentives to work well near end: • Pride, leisure in task, chance of new task • $, reputation of clan, save diaries/art/writing • Archived, falling frequency of revival • Gives them “me-now” immortality • Can compress archives if many similar copies

  30. Friends & Family Issues Solutions More men, homosexuality Men share fewer women Sex more fun, less moral Friends in copy/end team Idea folks suffer friend net No copies in same team Limit who meets spurs Teams have newbies? • Top workers mostly men • Most men need fem love • Don’t reproduce via sex • Sad when friends end • Ideas via friend networks • Copy competes for friend • Friend tiff changes mood • Awkward to meet copies • Feel paternal to whom?

  31. Em Need for Speed Issues Solutions Leisure > work speeds Mix meet: slow is temp fast Social speeds clump A clump: fastest linear cost It splits spatially Social speeds are classes Faster is higher class (But slow ancestors hold power?) Rich, old, boss, win argue, stable world, premium place • CPU cost ~ linear to x106 • Memory cost ~ constant • Fast costs premium land • Best speed varies by task • Meets want same speed • Fast play => work uptime • Fast boss can coordinate • ASAP tasks: max speed • Outwit, software develop

  32. Cities & Governance • City congestion barriers fall, allow bigger • If most net traffic VR interact, not move brains • Most economy in few dense city-states? • Huge gains to coordinate new em cities • Power, cool, support, comm, copy protect • Wins to first fast flexible cities, firms, etc. • During big change, might try new institutions • e.g., private law, futarchy, combo auctions • Iron grip via all fast recent copies of same

  33. α = 0.5, most in big Size More Unequal 105 most in small α = 2 104 103 2012 Firm – α ~ 1 α < 1 per product City-States – most in <10, each 10T+ out of 100T total Family – most in ~200, of 0.5T Income – α ~ 1 (live long) max holds 3%, ~$150T/yr 50% in top 10-7, =10M, each ~$1M/yr = 200K x ave of $4/yr 2046 102 α = 1 101 • Firm – α ~ 1 (was >1) α < 1 per product • City, States – α ~ 1 (was >1) • Family – α ~ 2 • Wealth – α ~ 1.4 max holds 0.02%, ~$50B 40% in top 1%, =70M, ea. ~$0.5M = 20x ave of $30K 104 105 101 102 103 Frequency

  34. Law & Regulation • Copy property: gift, loan, stock, or slave? • Min wage, no-evict, gift rules risk secret slaves • Ancestors own descendants? Recall to judge? • Clan of related copies regulate each other: • Law holds co-responsible for some crimes • Limit wages to recoup training costs • Behavior of each effects reputation of all • Fund common show-offs, e.g., art, science, sport

  35. Mind Theft Security Approaches • Open Source (10%?) • Resist – can resist/report theft/torture? • Clan Castles – only leave via virtual reality • High Monitoring • All sites, traffic watched for stolen copies • Detailed audits check IP usage • Copies leave clan for firm, allows fast boss

  36. In Summary • Don’t disown descendants till know them • Next era likely driven by brain emulations • Combine standard econ, brain research • To estimate basic outline of em world • Can give directions to nudge

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