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Effective Load Forecasting Strategies for Energy System Planning

Learn about load projection techniques for system demand forecasting, from feeder to substation levels, incorporating new developments and economic activities. Ensure accuracy using ALDR and CPS Energy Coincidence methods.

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Effective Load Forecasting Strategies for Energy System Planning

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  1. Load Projections / Forecasting Dwain Duke, PE Blake Williams, PE

  2. System Demand

  3. Forecasting • Feeder Forecast Starts at Customer Level • New Subdivisions • New Commercial Development • Small Base Load Growth • Potential Loads from Economic Development Activities • Conservative (larger values) • Feeder Combined to Transformer Forecast • Transformer Combined to Substation Forecast • Substation Forecast entered into ALDR • ALDR • Non-coincident Load is the sum of Substation Forecast • Load Coincident with ERCOT is based on actual coincidence factors

  4. System Forecast

  5. Base Case Load • Substation Loads are adjusted to CPS Energy Coincidence • Coincidence Factor is based on actual System Coincidence

  6. Base Case Load

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