Grain and Oilseed Weather Update 2013 - U.S. & South America

1. U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013Mike TannuraMeteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and OwnerTransportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants AssociationJanuary 24, 2013

2. U.S. Drought Monitor • As of Tuesday, January 15 • Source: National Weather Service

3. U.S. Streamflow • Monday, January 21, 2013 • Source: United States Geological Survey

4. Upper-Mississippi Streamflow • Monday, January 21, 2013 • Source: United States Geological Survey

5. Missouri Streamflow • Monday, January 21, 2013 • Source: United States Geological Survey

6. Precipitation • Percent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Monday • A tale of two grain belts – one very dry, one wet • Source: National Weather Service

7. U.S. Winter Wheat Production • 2007 - 2011 Average

8. Precipitation (Percent of Normal) • Weighted By U.S. Crop Production • 180-Day Period Ending Monday • 68% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to only 10% of SRW wheat

9. Neutral Conditions Exist • (Neither El Niño nor La Niña)

10. Neutral Conditions To Continue • Through Summer • Data source: Climate Prediction Center

11. U.S. Temperature Probability • March-April-May

12. U.S. Precipitation Probability • March-April-May

13. 10 Driest May-December Periods • In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • 1895 - 2012 • Data source: National Climatic Data Center

14. March-April Precipitation After The 10 Driest May-December Periods • In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Data source: National Climatic Data Center

15. U.S. Winter Wheat Yield • 1950 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

16. U.S. Winter Wheat Yield After The 10 Driest May-December Periods • In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

17. U.S. Corn Production • 2007 - 2011 Average

18. U.S. Soybean Production • 2007 - 2011 Average

19. Ideal Weather For • Highest U.S. Corn Yield

20. Ideal Weather For • Highest U.S. Soybean Yield

21. U.S. Corn Yield • 1960 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

22. U.S. Corn Yield • (Departure From Trend) • 1960 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

23. U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* • 1960 - 2012 • * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

24. U.S. Soybean Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* • 1960 - 2012 • * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

25. Summary • A large-scale and intense drought is in progress • May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period • The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 • Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields

26. U.S. Earthquakes • Do you live in the Midwest or Mississippi Delta? • Have you ever felt an earthquake?

27. San Francisco Earthquake • Magnitude 7.9 on April 18, 1906

28. U.S. Earthquake Risk • The risk of a major earthquake in the central U.S. “is as high as for places in California” – United States Geological Survey, 2007 • Source: United States Geological Survey

29. Two Seismic Zones In • The Corn Belt and Delta

30. Halloween Earthquake • Near Cairo, Illinois • Magnitude 6.8 on October 31, 1895 • Source: United States Geological Survey

31. New Madrid Earthquake Sequence • December 1811 – February 1812 • 4 earthquakes of Magnitude 7.8 – 8.1 • 8 earthquakes of at least Magnitude 7.0 (not aftershocks) • “…weeks to months…” of disruption would affect agriculture and its transportation infrastructure if a sequence recurred today – USGS 2009

32. South America • Grains and Oilseeds

33. Argentina Precipitation • Last 90 Days (Ending Monday)

34. Argentina Precipitation • Last 30 Days (Ending Monday)

35. Argentina’s Recent Weather Pattern

36. Summary • Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return • Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

37. Summary • A large-scale and intense drought is in progress • May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period • The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 • Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields • Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return • Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

38. Thank You! • Questions? Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Email: mike@tstorm.net Website: www.tstorm.net Phone: (312) 638-0993 Toll Free Phone: (866) 475-7370 980 North Michigan Avenue Suite 1400 Chicago, IL 60611