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Kenya's Ethnic Dynamics and the Challenges of Responsibility to Protect (R2P)

Kenya, with a population of 34.5 million and over 40 ethnic groups, showcases deep-rooted ethnic complexities. The Kikuyu, though the largest group at 22%, have historically been dominant due to their partnership with British colonial rule. Events like the 2007 elections led to severe violence, resulting in 1,300 deaths and 600,000 displaced. The subsequent mediation by figures like Kofi Annan led to a power-sharing agreement, yet issues of ethnic tension and humanitarian intervention challenges remain, highlighting the relevance of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine in Africa.

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Kenya's Ethnic Dynamics and the Challenges of Responsibility to Protect (R2P)

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  1. Kenya & R2P Great Decisions, February 13, 2010

  2. KENYA'S ETHNIC GROUPS Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups

  3. KENYA: Context •  Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups; • Kikuyu largest but not majority (22%), traditionally dominant, converted to Christianity, western education, partners with British colonial rule; • Mau Mau, strong role in governing, left Kikuyu as dominant group at independence

  4. KENYA: Event OUTLINE OF EVENTS: • 1990: multiparty riots, donor demands for liberalization; • 1992, 1997: election violence; • 2002: Kibaki wins presidency, with Odinga’s support; some election violence; • December 2007: election, RailaOdinga was leading by 1.2 mil votes when MwaiKibaki’s reelection victory was announced; • (Opposition 99 seats in Parliament, President’s party 43 seats) • Tampering immediately denounced by international observers; • Immediately, rioting begins across the nation; Luo in west, Kalenjin in central highlands; Kikuyu response violent, with little control by police, army; • ~1,300 dead, 600,000 displaced. ~ethnic cleansing?

  5. KENYA: Mediation Regional Authorities, Moral Authority & Respected Leaders: • Pressure from Desmond Tutu, other African leaders, including Tanzania leaders; • AU requested mediation by Kofi Annan • Team: Annan, Benjamin Mkapa (Tanz), Graca Machel (Mozambique & S.Africa) • Support for settlement from donors & allies

  6. Power Sharing Agreement • Post of Prime Minister with real powers created; • Two deputy PMs, one from each party, protected from arbitrary dismissal; • Results? Violence ended; systematic changes have not been made, Odinga’s supporters few gains, • tensions remain

  7. R2P? • Memories of Rwanda and Bosnia clear to Annan; • Destruction & disintegration in Region (Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan) created a sense of Urgency; • R2P an implicit, not explicit issue

  8. What is R2P? • A recently developed concept in IR which attempts to enforce a State’s responsibilities toward its own population, and to codify the circumstances which justify humanitarian intervention • Includes violence, especially war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity

  9. Issues? • State Sovereignty • UN Charter: “Domestic Jurisdiction” • Eroding distinction between International and Domestic issues • Failure of most attempts to “internationalize” domestic policy • Obstacles to “peace keeping” and humanitarian intervention

  10. Obstacles to Humanitarian Intervention: • Institutional Obstacles • Neutrality of IGO • suspicion of interveners’ motives • “Will” of members • Cost, in money and political capital

  11. Obstacles, cont’d • Pragmatic Obstacles • Uncertainty re: actual situation • Local assistance • Numbers of refugees, incidence of disease or famine • Resources: remote areas & supply lines language skilled workers

  12. Where does this leave us with R2P?

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