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Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan

Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan. June 5, 2007 Jeongim Park. Outline. 1. Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP). 2. Study Scope and Methods. 3. Premature Deaths–Related Benefits from SAQMP. 4. Summary and Future Improvements.

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Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan

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  1. Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan June 5, 2007 Jeongim Park

  2. Outline 1 Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP) 2 Study Scope and Methods 3 Premature Deaths–Related Benefits from SAQMP 4 Summary and Future Improvements

  3. Seoul Metropolitan Area

  4. 11.7 % 46.6 % 4 times 44.7 % 46.3 % Seoul Metropolitan Area Gyeonggi

  5. Air Pollution Trends in Seoul Tokyo New York

  6. SAQMP’s PM10 Goal Statement

  7. Special Law for Improving Air Quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area (2004) You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the center of Seoul!

  8. SAQMP measures (partial list)

  9. Emission Reduction Potentials from SAQMP

  10. Study Goal • To estimate the health benefits from implementing the SAQMP in 2014 • PM10 reduction • Premature mortality (acute effect)

  11. BenMAP Framework Data Input to BenMAP Results from BenMAP Data Input to BenMAP Population Estimates Population Data Geographic Grid Definitions Population Exposure Air Quality Monitoring Air Quality Modeling Health Functions Incidence Prevalence Adverse Health Effects Valuation Functions Economic Benefits

  12. Analysis Materials

  13. Population (year 2001) 9,200 ~ 347,780

  14. PM10 Distribution: 2001 Monitoring 49~88 ug/m3

  15. MM5 (Meteorological Modeling System) CAPSS, ACE-ASIA EMISSION Gas Phase chemistry Air Quality Modeling : MM5/CMAQ

  16. PM10 Distribution : 2001 Modeling 24~106 ug/m3

  17. PM10 Distribution : 2014 BAU 27~122 ug/m3

  18. PM10 Distribution : 2014 Control 12~54 ug/m3

  19. PM10 (2014 BAU –2014 Control) 15~75 ug/m3

  20. Health Impact Functions CHANGE in health effects (Δy) from the baseline to the control scenario CHANGE in pollution (ΔPM) from the baseline to the control scenario

  21. Health Effects Change-required data Health Effects Change Air Quality Change Effect Estimate Population Incidence = * * * • Concentration Units: ppm, ppb, μg/m3 • Measurements: maximum, average • Measurement Intervals: hourly, daily, annual • Data Sources: Air Quality Monitoring data (NIER) Air Quality Modeling (using CAPSS)

  22. Health Effects Change-required data Health Effects Change Air Quality Change Effect Estimate Population Incidence = * * * • Pollution Effect Units: • change in health effect rate per μg/m3, ppm, ppb; • unit change in health effect per μg/m3, ppm, ppb • Measurements Interval: hourly, daily, annual • Data Sources: epidemiological studies

  23. Health Effects Change-required data Health Effects Change Air Quality Change Effect Estimate Population Incidence = * * * • Health Effects Units: • mortality: number of deaths per 100,000; individual risk of death • morbidity: number of new bronchitis cases per 100,000; annual risk of an asthma attack; number of hospital admissions per 100,000 • Measurements Interval: daily, annual • Data sources: National Statistical Office; National Health Institutes; Published papers, etc.

  24. Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

  25. Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

  26. Value of Statistical Life (VSL) • Valuation Methods • Revealed preference approaches • Hedonic pricing (ex) labor market, property markets • Averting behavior (ex) smoke alarms • Stated preference approaches • Contingent valuation method: • Choice Modeling: Choice experiment(or Conjoint analysis) • Resource Cost techniques • Cost of Illness(COI) • Human Capital Approach(HCA) • Benefit Transfer • The transfer of existing estimates (STUDY CASE) to a new study which is different from the study for which the values were originally estimated(POLICY CASE)

  27. Benefit Transfer • Benefit Transfer Method VSL(Korea, 2001) = VSL(USA,2000)*Radj Radj = (ppp(2000)kOREA /ppp(2000)USA )  [per capita GDP(2000)kOREA/per capita GDP(2000)USA]  [GDP deflator(2001)kOREA/GDP deflator(2000)KOREA] PPP: Purchasing power parity

  28. Summary • PM10-related health benefits from implementing the SAQMP were analyzed using the BenMAP software • More than 2,000 avoided premature deaths were estimated with putting the SAQMP into action (short-term effects only) • The economic value of the deaths avoided was estimated to $4.8billion.

  29. Thank you!!Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan

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