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Challenge and response in the East -West migration , in times of crisis

Challenge and response in the East -West migration , in times of crisis. Dumitru Sandu University of Bucharest. Slides for intervention in the D ebate on East-West migration , Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy/ Hollands Spoor , Hague, October 10, 2013.

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Challenge and response in the East -West migration , in times of crisis

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  1. Challenge and response in theEast-West migration, in times of crisis Dumitru SanduUniversity of Bucharest Slides for interventionin theDebate on East-West migration, Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy/ HollandsSpoor, Hague, October 10, 2013. The onlyresponsible for analysis and points of view is the author. Slides could be circulated and used with proper citation. Data on the slides will be presented function of the course of the discussions.

  2. Questions

  3. Answers in a nutshell (1)* • See slides for details and support • ** Stouffer, Samuel A. (1960). Intervening opportunities and competing migrants. Journal of Regional Science, 2(1), 1-26.

  4. Answers in a nutshell (2)

  5. Answers in a nutshell (3)

  6. DESCRIPTIVES: East-West migration in Europe dominated by Romanians, Poles and Bulgarians

  7. DESCRIPTIVES: Share of interviewedRomaniansdeclearingthatthey are having al leastone relative or closefriend in thespecified country Figures are relevant for thedensity of social networksabroad, bydestinationcountries. Hierarchy consistent withtheonereferringtothenumber of emigrants in thepreviousslide. Data source: EUCROSS survey, 2013, weighted data

  8. DESCRIPTIVES: Highlydifferentiatedrates of increase for non-western groups of immigrantstoNetherlands (%) Large groups of high rate of increase POLISH and SOMALIANS Largest group of low rate of increase – MORROCCANS Bulgarians and Romanians , similar size but much lower rate of democraphic increse for Romanians Figures in parenthesis indicate the size of the group in 2013, in thou.

  9. DESCRIPTIVES: Howlargeistheincrease of net immigration of Roamaniansafter lifting theworkrestrictions : Italy, Spain and Denmarkcases • Thereisnot a clearsupport of thehypothesisthat lifting workrestrictions for Romanian immigrantsgenerateswaves of suchincomingimmigrants. • In the period withoutrestrictions in Spain, 2009-2010 was a decline in therates of immigrationincreases. • Anual increse of net immigration of Romanians in Denmark ,a fter lifting restrictionswasbetween 1.4 to 2.5 thou. • The increse of about 20 thou. in the Italian case isnot relevant for onlyoneyear. It isverylikelythat part of thisincreaseisnothingelsethan a conversion of irregulatedintoregulatedwork.

  10. SYSTEM: Migration fields of Romanian recent migration

  11. SYSTEM: A highlyregionalised Romanian migrationbyorigin and destination Data source: NIS, census 2011, Migrants that left the country of less than one year. Capital letters are for the origin county. Percentages indicate the share of emmigrants from a certain cluster of counties towards a certain European destination. Map design and data computations – D.Sandu. *Sandu, D. (2005). Emerging transnational migration from Romanian villages. Current Sociology, 53(4), 555-582.

  12. SYSTEM: Howthemainfieldsof recent Romanian migrationabroad are connected at origin, in Romania Data source NIS, data matrix of Romanians that left the country of less than one year, by origin county and destination country, census data 2011. Each destination has a profile given by the number of emigrants by counties (log transformation). A correlation matrix among all the vectors is the basis for the diagram. Correlations that are significant for p=0.01 are marked by marked lines. Thin lines indicate significant coiefficients for p=0.05.

  13. POLICY: Inputs in the discussion on Roma immigrants in EU coming from Romania More than half of theRoma haveonlyprimaryeducation or less

  14. Annexe 1: Share of emigrants from Romania by origin and destination regions

  15. Annex 2: Age structurer of temporary emigrants for less then one year from Romania and of country population, 2011 Data source: National Institute of Statistics (NIS), 2011

  16. Annex 3.Similarities in terms of the migration profile in post-communist countries1 Reduced immigration, high level of remittance input The external migration profile of Romania resembles most that of Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Slovakia The more the junction segments of the branches starting at the country name are closer to the 0 value on the scale, the more those countries have a more resembling migration profile Low level of remittance input Low level of remittance exiting the country 1. The profile of each country is given by the emigration rate, the immigrant weight, inputs-remittances per capita, volume of input remittances (ln), outputs – remittances per migrant. Cluster analysis, normalized variabileswith z, the methods of the farthest neighbour, Euclidian gaps raised to square 16

  17. Annex 4:Main streams of East- West migrationsystem in European Union Romania and Poland are the key sending countries in this migration system system. Their migrants are in competition especially in Germany. Otherwise, there si a specific domination of the Polish on the labour markets in Germany and UK and for Romanians in Spain and Italy. In all these EU15 destinations there are are also very large segments of competing migrants for Latin America, Africa and Asia. France is another important player in this system but necessary data for analysis are not available.

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