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Caspian energy development -- t he second phase

Caspian energy development -- t he second phase. Jonathan Elkind Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland. Progress to date. Independent resource decisions Endless debates – how much and when? Upstream PSAs agreed Initial field explorations

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Caspian energy development -- t he second phase

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  1. Caspian energy development -- the second phase Jonathan Elkind Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland

  2. Progress to date • Independent resource decisions • Endless debates – how much and when? • Upstream • PSAs agreed • Initial field explorations • Transportation is the key • Multiple pipelines as a commercial need

  3. Status of Caspian energy development • Region is “on the map” • A core part of the global energy scene • Diversification of global energy supply • Potential contributor for well-being • Complicated force • Source of stress as well as benefit for post-Soviet states and Turkey as well

  4. The second phase • Multi-decade relationships • Challenges: • Changing political landscapes • Need to maintain contractual terms • Prominent environmental considerations • Concerns over societal benefit

  5. Oil production • Tengizchevroil– approx. 240K barrels/day in 2000 • Producing as TCO since 1994 • Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli – 117K BBL/day in 5/01 • AIOC producing since 1997 • Moving now on Phase One – 470K BBL/day • Karachaganak – 80K BBL/day; twd. 230K • Recent export woes

  6. Oil production (continued) • Dry holes Absheron • Work ahead Azerbaijan – Nakhicevan, Inam, Alov Russia – Severniy block Kazakhstan – Kashagan, Khvalinskaya

  7. Oil transportation • Early oil pipelines • Baku-Novorossisk – approx. 100K barrels/day • Baku-Supsa – approx. 100K barrels/day • Caspian Pipeline Consortium – 560K barrels/day • Benefits for Russia • How to interpret delayed start of operations – Concerns over quality bank? More? • Implications for Transneft?

  8. Oil transportation (continued) • Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan – 1M BBL/day, projected for 2004 • Sponsors Group participation • BP leadership • Non-AIOC additions -- Eni • Question marks -- Chevron? Lukoil? Exxon-Mobil? • Detailed engineering & sanction decision – summer 2002

  9. Oil transportation (continued) • Implications for Turkish Straits • Baseline of 1.2 million barrels / day • New increments of Russian production • CPC now on-line • Need for other routes out of Black Sea? • Odessa-Brody line? • Other “bypasses”?

  10. Gas production • Azerbaijan • Shah-Deniz – plus others? • Kazakhstan • Turkmenistan • World’s third-largest reserves • Strategic competitors • Isolating itself

  11. Gas transportation • Western European gas demand growth • Uncertain Turkish gas demand • EIA: 4.7% annual growth from 1999 to 2020 • New sources of supply • Blue Stream – 8 BCM to start, 16 later; on-stream 2002? • Baku-Erzurum – 7 BCM to start; on-stream 2004? • Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline – not in our lifetimes • Turkmen and Kazakh gas flow through Russian system to Turkey and Central/Western Europe

  12. The big questions ahead • Russia’s role • Changes in Russian energy sector • Active commercial role in Caspian? • Iran’s role • Delimitation controversy • Oil export line after Baku-Ceyhan? • Production volumes • Direction

  13. The big questions ahead (cont’d) • Environmental challenges • Legitimate issues • Spill response capabilities • Legislation and institutions • Misdirected concerns • Other energy and industrial development • “Blame the oil companies” • Need for transparency, data, NGO dialogue

  14. Contact information: Jonathan Elkind Senior Research Associate Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland 8400 Baltimore Avenue College Park, Maryland 20740 tel.: ++1-301-314-6738 fax: ++1-301-314-6741 e-mail: jelkind@umresearch.umd.edu http://globalchange.umd.edu

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