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Caspian Energy Development: Progress, Challenges, and Future Trends

Explore the current status of Caspian energy development, including oil and gas production figures, transportation infrastructure, and future prospects. Learn about the region's potential impact on global energy supply and the challenges it faces in maintaining growth and sustainability.

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Caspian Energy Development: Progress, Challenges, and Future Trends

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  1. Caspian energy development -- the second phase Jonathan Elkind Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland

  2. Progress to date • Independent resource decisions • Endless debates – how much and when? • Upstream • PSAs agreed • Initial field explorations • Transportation is the key • Multiple pipelines as a commercial need

  3. Status of Caspian energy development • Region is “on the map” • A core part of the global energy scene • Diversification of global energy supply • Potential contributor for well-being • Complicated force • Source of stress as well as benefit for post-Soviet states and Turkey as well

  4. The second phase • Multi-decade relationships • Challenges: • Changing political landscapes • Need to maintain contractual terms • Prominent environmental considerations • Concerns over societal benefit

  5. Oil production • Tengizchevroil– approx. 240K barrels/day in 2000 • Producing as TCO since 1994 • Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli – 117K BBL/day in 5/01 • AIOC producing since 1997 • Moving now on Phase One – 470K BBL/day • Karachaganak – 80K BBL/day; twd. 230K • Recent export woes

  6. Oil production (continued) • Dry holes Absheron • Work ahead Azerbaijan – Nakhicevan, Inam, Alov Russia – Severniy block Kazakhstan – Kashagan, Khvalinskaya

  7. Oil transportation • Early oil pipelines • Baku-Novorossisk – approx. 100K barrels/day • Baku-Supsa – approx. 100K barrels/day • Caspian Pipeline Consortium – 560K barrels/day • Benefits for Russia • How to interpret delayed start of operations – Concerns over quality bank? More? • Implications for Transneft?

  8. Oil transportation (continued) • Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan – 1M BBL/day, projected for 2004 • Sponsors Group participation • BP leadership • Non-AIOC additions -- Eni • Question marks -- Chevron? Lukoil? Exxon-Mobil? • Detailed engineering & sanction decision – summer 2002

  9. Oil transportation (continued) • Implications for Turkish Straits • Baseline of 1.2 million barrels / day • New increments of Russian production • CPC now on-line • Need for other routes out of Black Sea? • Odessa-Brody line? • Other “bypasses”?

  10. Gas production • Azerbaijan • Shah-Deniz – plus others? • Kazakhstan • Turkmenistan • World’s third-largest reserves • Strategic competitors • Isolating itself

  11. Gas transportation • Western European gas demand growth • Uncertain Turkish gas demand • EIA: 4.7% annual growth from 1999 to 2020 • New sources of supply • Blue Stream – 8 BCM to start, 16 later; on-stream 2002? • Baku-Erzurum – 7 BCM to start; on-stream 2004? • Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline – not in our lifetimes • Turkmen and Kazakh gas flow through Russian system to Turkey and Central/Western Europe

  12. The big questions ahead • Russia’s role • Changes in Russian energy sector • Active commercial role in Caspian? • Iran’s role • Delimitation controversy • Oil export line after Baku-Ceyhan? • Production volumes • Direction

  13. The big questions ahead (cont’d) • Environmental challenges • Legitimate issues • Spill response capabilities • Legislation and institutions • Misdirected concerns • Other energy and industrial development • “Blame the oil companies” • Need for transparency, data, NGO dialogue

  14. Contact information: Jonathan Elkind Senior Research Associate Joint Global Change Research Institute University of Maryland 8400 Baltimore Avenue College Park, Maryland 20740 tel.: ++1-301-314-6738 fax: ++1-301-314-6741 e-mail: jelkind@umresearch.umd.edu http://globalchange.umd.edu

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