NACLIM CT1/CT3 1 st CT workshop 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg (DE) Johann Jungclaus

1. NACLIM CT1/CT31st CT workshop 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg (DE)Johann Jungclaus

2. NACLIM structure

3. WP1.1: Predictability of the North Atl./Arctic ocean surface state & key oceanic quantities MPI-M (30 PM), NERSC (24 PM) Objectives: • To assess, in a multi-model approach, the predictability of the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean surface state and of key ocean parameters controlling it • To quantify the uncertainty in predictions of the near-future North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean surface state Tools: CMIP5 climate change/dec. pred. simulations

4. WP1.1: Predictability of the North Atl./Arctic ocean surface state & key oceanic quantities: Deliverables D11.25) Multi-model assessment of the hindcast predictability of NA/Arctic ocean surface state: Assessment on the hindcast predictability of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state including SST, SSS and Arctic sea ice cover [month 24] D11.36) Quantification of uncertainty in predictions of near-future NA/Arctic ocean surface state: Report on the quantification of the uncertainty in predictions of the near-future North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state including SST, SSS and Arctic sea ice cover [month 36] D11.56) Multi-model assessment of hindcast predictability of key oceanic quantities controlling North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state. Assessment on the hindcast predictability of the key oceanic quantities controlling the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surface state including SST, SSS and Arctic sea ice cover [month 44]

5. WP1.2: Predictability of the atmosphere related to the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surfacestate UPMC (48 PM), UHAM (48), NERSC (18) Objectives: • Identify the sea surface temperature (SST), surface salinity, and sea ice patterns that optimally influence the atmosphere in the North Atlantic/European sector on seasonal to decadal time scales and quantify their climatic impacts. • Assess the ability of climate models to reproduce these impacts, identify their potential predictability, and use observations to downscale the model predictions from global to local scales. • Quantify the impact of Arctic changes on polar meso-cyclone activity. Tools: THOR Adjoint Assimilation system, observational data sets, NACLIM obs., reanalysis products, atmosphere & climate model simulations

6. WP1.2: Predictability of the atmosphere related to the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean surfacestate: Deliverables D12.18) Report on the identification of NA/Arctic ocean surface state changes that most affect atmosphere: i.e. report on the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere, which processes and mechanisms are involved and which observations need to be taken to represent those processes best. [month 18] D12.37) Assessment of the ability of climate models to reproduce response to boundary forcing: i.e. assessment of the ability of climate models used in CMIP5 to reproduce the response in the North Atlantic/European sector to changes in boundary forcing identified in the observations. [month 36] D12.48) Report on the establishment of the climate impacts of surface state forcing: i.e. report on the establishment of the climate impacts of surface state forcing, including sea surface temperature and Arctic sea ice cover [month 44] D12.49) Assessment on the link between weather regimes and Polar low developments in present &future climate: Assessment on the associations between dominant modes of variability (surface and atmospheric) and polar low developments in present climate as well as in future projections. [month 44]

7. WP1.3: Mechanisms of ocean surface state variability UPMC (48 PM), UHAM (36) Objektives: •Characterize the time-space sea surface variability in the Arctic/North Atlantic region. • Identify the mechanisms underpinning this variability and link them to indices of variability of the ocean circulation. • Provide information on the respective roles of the atmosphere and the ocean in this variability and identify feedback mechanisms between ocean anomalies and the overlaying atmosphere. Tools: THOR Adjoint Assimilation System, observational data sets, NACLIM obs., reanalysis products, ocean & climate model simulations

8. WP1.3: Mechanisms of ocean surface state variability: Deliverables D13.19) Description of the Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface variability over the last decades: The report will describe the most important patterns of ocean surface (sea ice, SST) variability and regional indices of this variability as retrieved from observations and state-of-the-art models. The description will include assessment of model skills against independent observations. [month 18] D13.38) Report on identification of most relevant ocean mechanisms controlling the S2D variability of the Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface state. The report will provide and discuss the statistical relationships between the surface state variability and the ocean variability based on a variety of model simulations and reanalyses and on available observations [month 36] D13.50) Report on characterization of back-interaction of atmosphere on Arctic/North Atlantic ocean surface state. The report will provide a description of the key modes of atmospheric variability which influence the surface state changes and an evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. [month 44]

9. CT1/CT3 workshop Each WP: Describestateofwork/progress Status andsuitabilityofthetools Anychangesneeded? Cross WP / Cross-CT activities WPs 1.1, 1.2., 1.3, 3.2 overlaps/synergy Need forcoordinationofjointmodelexperiments? Liaison withobservations (CT2): Availability, NACLIM dataportal; WP1.2: „joint model-observation datacomparison“: UHAM/NERC See deliverables D23XX Liaison with WP4: Information/dataexchange Focus on CT1/CT3: Initialization, Focus on Arctic Connections tootherprojects (e.g. RACE) Plans forjointpublications

10. CT1/CT3 workshop Additions: data policy, select CT1 data manager

11. CT1/CT3 workshop Additions:

12. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu