Lecture Sustainable Investment Model

1. Lecture Sustainable Investment Model Jan H. Jansen E-mail: jan.jansen@han.nl

2. About Jan H Jansen • Senior lecturer • International Finance • Management Accounting • Researcher • Chair of Total Quality Management in Organizational Networks • Chair of Logistics & Alliances • Supervisor • Internships / Placements • Graduation projects / Dissertations

3. Sustainable Investment Model

4. Sustainable Investment Model

5. Problem • Can Sustainable Investments contribute to a better future ecology? • Ecological impact of: • Energy production • Energy consumption

6. Sustainable Investments • Energy production • Traditional • Oil • Gas • Coal • Nuclear • Sustainable • Wind • Hydro • Solar • Biomass • Geothermal

7. Sustainable Investments • Energy consumption • Transport • Inland vessels • Rail • Road • Trucks • Cars • Houses • Use of rainwater & sewage water • Use of solar cells & wind turbines • Insulation & energy management systems • Factories • Re-use of industrial warmth • Geothermic storage of industrial warmth • See also under Houses

8. Some facts about renewable energy in the European Union (EU)

9. Renewable energy in final energy consumption (2020 target) Source: www.energy.eu

10. Renewable electric energy in the EU Resource: www.energy.eu

11. Sustainable Investments • Sustainable • Added value for social welfare • Better & optimal allocation of scarce natural resources • Investment • Capital • Equity • Debts / Loans • Recovery • Repayment Debts • Payment interest • Profitability

12. Sustainable Investment Model

13. DOSIT Model Model developed by: • TNO (Applied Research in Science) • Research Chair of TQMinON • Prof. Gerard Berendsen • Source: • Duurzaaminnoveren met de DOSIT-methodiek, G. Berendsen cs, Sigma Kluwermanagement, June 2006 • http://www.han.nl/onderzoek/kennismaken/ontwikkelen-van-excellente-organisaties/lectoraat/tqm-in-organisatienetwerken/publicaties/_attachments/kip_c2-11_20duurzaam_20innoveren_20met_20de_20dosit_20methodiek.pdf

14. Dutch Duurzaam Ondernemen Selectie Innovatieve Technologie DOSIT English Sustainable Entrepreneurial Selection Innovative Technology SESIT DOSIT Model

15. Why DOSIT? Hot topics in business are: • Innovation • Product innovation • Innovation of processes • Sustainability / CSR • Stewardship / Managership / Bailiff (UK) (Dutch: Rentmeesterschap) • Investments

16. Innovation: • Products • Process Sustainability Investing

17. Sustainability & Entrepreneurship in SME’s • Company meets the requirements from the government and keeps in mind future requirements • Company fulfils its social and cultural role in society • Company plays in an effective way its role in the huge changes in society & economic development for the mid and long term

18. Sustainability & Entrepreneurship in SME’s • The product, the way the product is used and will be used • The production process (including resources) • The way the product is introduced on the market

19. Basic assumptions: DOSIT model • Focus as a company on a limited number of activities connected to sustainability • Intrinsic motivation of staff concerning change in general and sustainability in specific • Communication in the company concerning sustainability: Top Down & Bottom Up • ‘Quick and dirty job’ in SME’s, staff wants to see immediately results • Aspects of sustainability have influence on the continuity of the company • Sound financial base is important for the continuity of the company

20. Profit People Planet 3 P’s

21. Stages in the DOSIT methodology • Preparation • Choice of priorities in the areas of Key Success Factors • Selection of possible Innovations • Final choices of Innovations • Implementation of Innovations

22. Elements of the DOSIT model • Supply Chain & Value Chain • Raw materials • Components • Business development • Logistic Processes (I >T > O) • Production • Packaging • Warehousing & Distribution • Product & Market Development • Product Use / Reversed Logistics

23. DOSIT Matrix (Overview Priorities)

24. Constraints in the process of sustainable innovation • ROI requirement (bottom line) • Requirements clients • How do process interfere in the chain? • Feasibility (in a technical way) • Connection with future developments & ambitions of the company • What is target for the degree of sustainability • How much will be the impact of the innovation (paradigm shift?)

25. Sustainable Investment Model

26. Structure Sustainable Investment model

27. Project Structure Source : Project Finance, Yescombe

28. Ring-fenced project Source : Project Finance, Yescombe

29. Project Risks

30. Investment Equipment Building R&D Environment Sustainability Staff / HR Maintenance Operating costs Funds Equity Loans Financing

31. Cash Outflows Equipment Building R&D Environment Sustainability Staff / HR Maintenance Operating costs Cash Inflows Sales Lower costs Investment recovery

32. Components Capital Budget Model • Investment (Year 0) • Economic Life of the Investment • Years 1 - n • Interest Rate: i = r + π + σ • r = real interest rate • π = inflation • σ = risk (project risk mark-up) • Annual Cash Flows (During economic life) • Expenses • Revenues

33. Decision Criteria • Pay Back Period (PBP) • Return On Investments (ROI) • Break Even Time (BET) • Net Present Value (NPV) • Profitability Index • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)

34. Weighted average cost of capital (kWACC) Cost of equity (ke) with the Cost of debt (kd) in proportion to the relative weight of each in the firm’s optimal long-term financial structure: kWACC = ke* E+ kd * (1-t) *D V = E + D V V

35. Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) CAPM defines the cost of equity (ke) for a firm as : ke = krf + βj * (km – krf) krf= interest rate on risk-free bonds km = expected (required) rate of return on equity βj = firm’s systematic risk coefficient risk free premium

36. Example: Data

37. Example: € 20 million investment

38. Calculations in MS EXCEL

39. Results

40. The complexity of an investment decision Bookkeeper Entrepreneur Present Past Future 20 years of uncertainty