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Impact of NOx Emissions in Georgia on Annual PM2.5

Impact of NOx Emissions in Georgia on Annual PM2.5. Jim Boylan, Byeong-Uk Kim, Michelle Bergin, Jim Kelly Georgia Department of Natural Resources 9 th Annual CMAS Conference October 12, 2010. Nonattainment in Georgia. 1997 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Design value of < 15.0 m g/m 3

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Impact of NOx Emissions in Georgia on Annual PM2.5

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  1. Impact of NOx Emissions in Georgia on Annual PM2.5 Jim Boylan, Byeong-Uk Kim, Michelle Bergin, Jim Kelly Georgia Department of Natural Resources 9th Annual CMAS Conference October 12, 2010

  2. Nonattainment in Georgia

  3. 1997 Annual PM2.5 NAAQS • Design value of < 15.0 mg/m3 • Average of 2007, 2008, and 2009 observations • State Implementation Plans • GA EPD has submitted annual PM2.5 SIPs for Atlanta, Macon, Rome/Floyd, and Chattanooga • Fine PM Implementation Rule (72 FR 20586) • “The final rule retains provisions for the State or EPA to conduct a technical demonstration to reverse the presumptive inclusion of NOx” as a PM2.5 attainment plan precursor.

  4. 2002 Design Values for Georgia SANDWICH technique has been applied to 5-year weighted FRM measurements

  5. CMAQ Modeling Scenarios • CMAQ modeling scenarios: • 2009 base case with all emissions included • 100% state-wide NOx reduction (all sources) • 50% state-wide NOx reduction (all sources) • 30% state-wide NOx reduction (all sources) • NOx emission sources include: • Point, Area, On-road, Non-road, Fires, Biogenic

  6. Evaluation Approach • Monitor specific impacts were determined by taking the difference between the 2009 future design value (with all emissions included) and the sensitivity run design value. • The modeling results were processed in accordance with EPA’s modeling guidance • SMAT, SANDWICH, and RRFs • Impacts compared against PSD Significant Impact Levels (SILs) for PM2.5 emissions from a single stationary source • Annual SILs  0.3 mg/m3 (which is 2% of the NAAQS)

  7. 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domain

  8. 100% NOx Reduction in Georgia - -EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)

  9. 100% NOx Reduction in Georgia

  10. Hourly Model Performance for OCYorkville – July 2002

  11. OC Model Performance • The CMAQ model shows poor hourly model performance with unrealistically high OC predictions in the early morning hours when the mixing height is low. • It is during these same hours that the model shows large OC sensitivities to NOx reductions. • OC modeling is still developing and does not include many import pathways. • Smog chamber studies at Caltech have shown that reducing NOx emissions can lead to higher SOA production from isoprene, monoterpenes, and aromatic VOC. None of these pathways are currently included in the model.

  12. 30% and 50% NOx Scenario

  13. 50% NOx Reduction in Georgia - -EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)

  14. 30% NOx Reduction in Georgia - -EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)

  15. 30% NOx Reduction in Georgia

  16. EPA’s PSAT Modeling - -EPA’s Annual NSR Significant Impact Level (SIL)

  17. 100% NOx Scenario • The 100% NOx reduction modeling scenario has a number of issues: • This scenario models unrealistic emission reduction that are far greater than can be realistically achieved • Most of the modeling response (75% - 85%) is due to reductions in secondary organic carbon • SOA pathways are highly uncertain and the model does a poor job of simulating hourly OC temporal variations

  18. Conclusions • GA EPD feels it is inappropriate to evaluate the impacts from a brute force 100% statewide NOx sensitivity • GA EPD feels that a 30% statewide NOx sensitivity, a 50% statewide NOx sensitivity, or a 100% PSAT source apportionment run would be more appropriate to evaluate NOx impacts. • 30% statewide NOx  0.11 mg/m3 (max. impact) • 50% statewide NOx  0.22 mg/m3 (max. impact) • 100% statewide PSAT NOx  0.12 mg/m3 (max. impact) • The above modeling scenarios show impacts below the annual PSD SIL and indicate that NOx is “insignificant” as a precursor to PM2.5 in the Georgia nonattainment areas.

  19. Contact Information Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354James.Boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851

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