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Mulige strategier for en bæredygtig trafikudvikling Linda Christensen Seniorforsker Trafikkens sammensætning og trafikudvikling Fordeling på transportmidler Bilejerskab og brug af kollektiv trafik Udviklingen i transportarbejdet Prisudviklingen på kollektiv trafik og anden transport Den kollektive trafiks tilstand i 1990’erne Er kollektiv rejse mulig? Rejsetid med kollektiv trafik og i bil Rejsetid med kollektiv trafik og i bil Betydningen af rejsetiden for valg af transportmiddel Kollektiv trafik og klimaeffekt Forhold mellem CO2 udslip fra bil og kollektiv trafik Alm. 12 meter bus 5-6 gange 8 tons servicebus 3,5-4,2 gange 3 tons midibus 1,4-17 gange Minibusser 1-1,2 gange med 1,5 – 1,7 passager i personbil skal der sidde 9 mennesker i en 12 m bus for at den er CO2 neutral Midibusser fra Mercedes eller Neoplan er særlig interessante selv om de ikke er udbredte i DK. Har plads til 10-20 siddende og 10-15 stående passagerer Effekt af virkemidler på kollektiv trafik Effekt af halvering af takster Ændring i passagertal ved forbedringer Ændring i biltrafik ved forbedringer Hvor er kollektive forbedringer en god ide, økonomisk og miljømæssigt? Høj hastighed egentlig højklasset trafik, letbaner, metro, S-tog, IC tog. Men bemærk anlægsudgifterne Større fremkommelighed, busbaner, signalstyring, S-busser. Sparer også driftudgifter Bedre koordinering Ventetid ved skift er det mest belastende Cykler som bæredygtig strategi? Distribution of travels (round tours) on modes depending on travel length for people aged 18-84. 60 % of short travels is made by car 22 % of short travels is made by foot or bycicle In Central Copen-hagen it is 43 % 4 % of the over all kilometres are short travels 16. 12. 2009 IATBR 19 Hilliness In the flattest part of Denmark 21 % on bike 66 % by car In the most hilly town, Vejle 10 % on bike 74 % by car Temperature At 20 ºC the cycling share is 21 % At 0 ºC the cycling share is 14 % Car kilometre are 4 % lower in summer than in winter. Daylight is important for women Daylight 5,9 % walking km 18,6 % on bike Dark 4,4 % walking km 15,7 % on bike Women are walking and cycling a bit more km in daylight than men. Wind and rain Wind is barely significant and the difference between no wind and mean wind is 1 %. Rain also is of little importance. Impact – measured in km - of where and under which circumstances the travel is taking place 16. 12. 2009 20 IATBR Effekt af virkemidler til forbedring af cykling Impact of policy measuresTypical policies could be Longer driving times by car, either as a result of regulation or of congestion Prioritising cycle traffic in urban areas to increase the speed Parking fees and restrictions Cycle paths which reduces distances compared to cars More security for cyclist, i.e. as a result of cycle lanes ”Cycle cities”, with a combination of many different improvements to increase the passability for cycles Bike parking facilities Campaigns to increase cycling and walking, i.e. information or competition oriented Arrangements in companies to promote cycling by employees Economic incentives, i.e. tax reduction 16. 12. 2009 22 IATBR 3 separate models is developed to analyse the impact of policy measures on commuting, leisure and shopping travels. 16. 12. 2009 23 IATBR 16. 12. 2009 IATBR 24 Conclusions The effect of the ’grand total’ scenario is relatively small: Maximum possible shift is 16 % of car kilometres on short travels Shift of about 2½ % of the over all car kilometres An improvement of the health situation measured in fatality. 90 % of the increase in walking and cycling will be on cycling. The potential for shifting to walking is very small. So if you want to make a policy for reducing car traffic concentrate on a cycling policy First of all it is the commuting trips which can be shifted, with up to 1/3 Also at shopping car kilometres can be reduced, but to a lesser degree A cycling policy will never be the only policy to make traffic sustainable. It will only be one of many policies Betydningen af bystruktur Conclusions Strong correlation between distances travelled and urban structure. Not due to socio-economic differences Residences ought to be concentrated Best around the city centre of the central city. Else in the bigger towns around the the city Sprawl to villages and rural areas maximises the distances travelled Workplaces/offices ought to be concentrated closely around rail stations - eventually in high rise. Residences should be placed next to them Detailed planning of road network and residential areas is essential to avoid local impacts from traffic ConclusionsCar kilometres - Residences Klimakommissionen Syv forhold, der skal tages udgangspunkt i: reduktion i udledningen af drivhusgasser øget energieffektivitet fortsat høj forsyningssikkerhed samfundsøkonomisk omkostningseffektivitet gennem anvendelse af markeds-baserede løsninger fortsat høj økonomisk vækst gunstig erhvervsudvikling og fremme af erhvervslivets internationale konkurrenceevne miljømæssig bæredygtig udvikling Kommissorium ”Klimakommissionen skal belyse, hvorledes Danmark på lang sigt kan frigøre sig fra afhængigheden af fossile brændstoffer. Kommissionen skal ved belysningen beskrive virkeliggørelsen af den langsigtede vision.” Styrende principper To hovedspor for omstilling af transporten El-drift Udnytte vindbaseret el-produktion, Energi lagring enten i batterier eller kemisk (H2 + brændselscelle) Plug-in hybrid biler vil have et potentiale i overgangsperiode Biobrændstoffer Substitution i benzin- og diesel-biler er uproblematisk Biomasse vil blive en knap ressource På lang sigt primært til luftfart, søfart og til dels vejgods Vejen til 2050? Elbiler som løsning How large will the EV market be if we do not do anything? Basisudvikling i Teknologi batterier Teknologi for udvikling af bilers rækkevidde Udbuddet af biler Ingen udvikling i Bilernes priser (konventionelle og el-biler) Begrænset opstilling af eksterne lademuligheder Konventionelle biler How many EVs with full accessibility in 2020 And if the purchage charge tax excemption is prolonged to 2020… Elbilers krav til infrastruktur Need for charging away from home 0, 1, 2 etc. days during a period of 13 days. Represents a family in Greater Copenhagen. Source: Akta data 10.01.2008 Præsentation 38 Share of cars that need to fast charge during the day in 1, 2 etc number of days over a month. Distribution on average daily kilometres for vans and lorries operating 225 days a year. Whole Denmark. Source: MDCars 10.01.2008 Præsentation 40 Need to charge at home or elsewhere 10.01.2008 Præsentation 41 Share of trips for trips with need for charging compared to all trips 10.01.2008 Præsentation 42 Optimal location of 5 fast charging stations Optimal location of 20 fast charging stations 10.01.2008 Præsentation 44 Tours with need for fast chargingSuccessfull tours / overall detours 1448 Extended trips With all 1288 open stations – succesfull tours = 1441 bad matchings = 7 detours = 6,322 km = 4.4 km / tour Conclusion Only few electric vehicle drivers will need to charge outside home But seen over a period most EV drivers will need to charge elseware Fast charging is needed sometimes for a high share of EV drivers. This will need a great number of fastcharging stations 10.01.2008 Præsentation 46 Min konklusion Biltrafikken skal begrænses, vejafgifter er reelt eneste løsning Kollektiv trafik skal forbedres som reelt alternativ til bil Især i samspil med cykler og dele(el)biler Cykeltrafik skal forbedres i byerne, se til Odense og København, men det breder sig – også i udlandet Alle virkemidler er nødvendige Men teknologiudvikling er det der virkelig batter