4th MEETING SADMO SEVILLE, SPAIN, FEBRUARY 2008

1. 4th MEETING SADMOSEVILLE, SPAIN, FEBRUARY 2008 WATER RESOURCES INDICATORS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE HYDROLOGICAL DATA EAST OFGUADIANA RIVER AT REGIONAL SCALE HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF RGG WATER RESOURCES AT REGIONAL AND TEMPORAL SCALES P. ANGELIDIS AND N. KOTSOVINOS DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING DEMOCRITUS UNIVERSITY OF THRACE 67100 XANTHI, GREECE

2. DUTH RESEARCH OBJECTIVES • REGIONAL STATISTICAL – HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS OF THE PRECIPITATION DATA • WATER RESOURCES INDICATORS AT REGIONAL SCALES AND VARIOUS TIME SCALES • TEST FOR THE APPROPRIATE PROBABILITY DENSITY DISTRIBUTION TO DERIVE THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) AT REGIONAL SCALE FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES; KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST

3. STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES AT MANY STATIONS COVERING THE REGION UNDER STUDY, USING THREE DIFFERENT PROBABILITY DENSITY DISTRIBUTIONS • TREND LINE OF SPI • REGIONAL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE AND EVAPORATION • ADDITIONAL DROUGHT INDICATORS COMBINING HYDROLOGIC, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND VEGETATION DATA

4. Meteorological stations in the area under study (Guadiana)

5. WE MADETWODIFFERENT STATISTICAL ANALYSIES FOR COMPUTATION OF THESTANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) FOR VARIOUS TIME SCALES AT MANY STATIONS COVERING THE REGION UNDER STUDY: • The precipitation timeseries completed after correlation, but not extended. So timeseries of variant meteorologic stations have not the same time period • The precipitation timeseries completed after correlation, and extended to have all the same chronicle basis 1931 - 2007 THE RESULTS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AS WE WILL SEE NEXT.

6. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

7. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

8. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

9. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

10. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

11. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure), except log-normal

12. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

13. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

14. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

15. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

16. TESTING THREE THEORETICAL CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATIONTheoretical distributions seems to fit better to the larger timeseries (right figure)

17. COMPARISON OF THESTANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEXSPI 12a) Each one of the precipitation timeseries has its own chronicle basis b) The precipitation timeseries have all the same chronicle basis 1931 - 2007

18. ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: a) 1931–1973, b) 1931–2007

19. HERDADE DE VALADA station: a) 1968 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

20. MINAS DE SΓO DOMINGOS station: a) 1931 - 1968, b) 1931–2007

21. MONTE DA TORRE station: a) 1961 - 1971, b) 1931–2007

22. MOURA station: a) 1932 - 1941, b) 1931–2007

23. SANTA IRIA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

24. SOBRAL DA ADIHA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

25. VILA VERDE DE FICALHO station: a) 1980 - 1985, b) 1931–2007

26. SALVADA station: a) 1957 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

27. MESQUITA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

28. COMPARISON OF THESTANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEXSPI 24a) Each one of the precipitation timeseries has its own chronicle basis b) The precipitation timeseries have all the same chronicle basis 1931 - 2007

29. ALDEIA NOVA DE SΓO BENTO station: a) 1931–1973, b) 1931–2007

30. HERDADE DE VALADA station: a) 1968 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

31. MINAS DE SΓO DOMINGOS station: a) 1931 - 1968, b) 1931–2007

32. MONTE DA TORRE station: a) 1961 - 1971, b) 1931–2007

33. MOURA station: a) 1932 - 1941, b) 1931–2007

34. SANTA IRIA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

35. SOBRAL DA ADIHA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

36. VILA VERDE DE FICALHO station: a) 1980 - 1985, b) 1931–2007

37. SALVADA station: a) 1957 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

38. MESQUITA station: a) 1980 - 2007, b) 1931–2007

39. REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF SPI FOR TIME SCALE EQUAL TO: 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS12 MONTHS24 MONTHS

40. LINEAR TREADLINE SLOPE COEFFICIENT FOR GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONOF THE SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 12 and SPI 24Only in 2 stations among 21 stations, possitive treadline slope appears for SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 12 and SPI 24

41. The slope of trend line for the SPI-3 months

42. The slope of trend line for the SPI-6 months

43. The slope of trend line for the SPI-12 months

44. The slope of trend line for the SPI-24 months