The 3rd Hellenic Observatory PhD Symposium LSE, 14 & 15 June 2007 Contemporary Greece: Structures, Context and Chal

1. The 3rd Hellenic Observatory PhD SymposiumLSE, 14 & 15 June 2007Contemporary Greece: Structures, Context and Challenges. “Cyprus’ EU Membership as a Catalyst for the Solution of the Political Problem: Myth or Reality?” Submitted by: MATSOUKA CLEOPATRA PhD Candidate University of Athens Scholar of the PENED Programme 2003 (Ministry of Development/GSRT– 3rd EU Framework Programme /Operational Programme of Competitiveness)

2. I. INTRODUCTION • Cyprus “political problem” remains unresolved. • Cyprus issue  important political and security implications for the regional & international stability. • “ How can such a small island be so important for EU politics?”

3. II. The importance of the Problem • “Peace and stability”: among the main objectives of the EU enlargement policy • Developments on Cyprus and the final character of any solution will determine the political situation in the Easter Mediterranean • De facto partition of the island demonstrates a constant threat to the stability of the region • Contribution to the stability of the Greek -Turkish relations

4. III. The actors involved • The United Nations • The European Union • Republic of Cyprus / Turkish Cypriot Community • Greece • Turkey • UK • USA

5. IV. The United Nations’ role in the process • The island is divided into two zones since 1974 and it has been overseen and patrolled by the United Nations Forces • All efforts by the United Nations to achieve a solution of the Cyprus problem had failed: • The Annan Plan • Rejection of the referendum of April 2004:Turkish Cypriots: accepted with a 2/3 majority, while 76% of the Greek Cypriots rejected it

6. And the EU???

7. V. The European Union’s instruments for conflict response: Sui generis instruments (political, economic, civil and military): 1st and 2nd pillar instruments: Agreements, cooperation programs,humanitarian aid, the Rapid Reaction Mechanism, political dialogue, diplomacy, political statements, observation, fact- finding missions, the Policy Planning, Early Warning Unit, cooperation among Member States in the field of armament, the Rapid Reaction Force and Civil Crisis Management.

8. ..more indirect instruments… EU exerts influence through four procedures: • Enlargement / The prospect of accession into the EU • European integration (support for regional integration) • European Neighbourhood Strategy : “Wider Europe” • Common Foreign and Security Policy (political dialogue and diplomacy, declaration, special representatives, missions, measures)

9. VII. Cyprus’ EU Membership as a Catalyst for a Solution? • The division of Cyprus: one of the most difficult issues to solve in the EU's fifth enlargement round. • The Helsinki Summit (1999): underlined the necessity for a solution before accession of Cyprus and supported the UN initiatives • Though, the Republic of Cyprus became a member state of the European Union on 1st of May 2004 without a solution the EU incorporated the problem!

10. VI. Criticism to the capabilities of the EU • The EU is not always capable of making an effective use of its instruments. • European Union’s action: criticized for being more reactive than preventing • The EU could be more effective through a more focused Foreign Policy Strategy ( lack of coherence, multi-representation of the EU, sovereignty)

11. The European Framework: Offers the perfect opportunity for Turkey, Greece, Cyprus to take a step back (and forward) and rethink their positions vis-a -vis each another Has an important role in creating an atmosphere to all parties involved using its measures and approach for possible progress The objectives of European unification: ensuring peace and political stability

12. The structure of the European Union, the institutions and the Member States can work as pressure mechanisms for a peaceful settlement • The European support helps the Turkish Cypriot Community in various ways: a) to end its isolation b) to approach the European economic standards through financial support and Funding that facilitate the economic development and c) to implement the acquis communitaire • The future of Turkey's accession talks with the EU depend also on the successful conclusion of the Cyprus problem.

13. VIII. Possible positive outcomes of an EU solution • The reunification of the island would be beneficial for all Cypriots and particularly the Turkish Cypriots. • Living standards, Economic activities, Tourism, Services, Industry, Agriculture, the cohesion of the Turkish-Cypriot community • Cyprus: bridge between East and West, between Islam and the EU

14. The benefits for Turkey would be even greater, as Turkey’s road to EU partly goes through Cyprus: • Possible concessions on the Cyprus issue may overcome the anxieties and objections of many of the EU officials (and inhabitants) and convince them that they have nothing to fear from Turkey joining. • Turkey’s national objective is to join the EU. A possible solution of the Cyprus issue will offermore changes for accession and provide the space to carry on with the necessary reforms

15. Three possible scenarios: • the pessimist scenario: low interest for membership by Turkey or freezing of the negotiation process could lead to:  non recognition of Cyprus  no solution  division of the island  weak political union. • the optimistic scenario: strong wiliness for membership could lead to:  recognition of Cyprus  unification of the island  strong political union • alternative scenario: - Turkey’s “privileged partnership” with the EU - Cyprus political conflict finding a workable solution?

16. Thank you