Part IB. Descriptive Statistics

1. Part IB. Descriptive Statistics Multivariate Statistics (多變量統計) Focus: Multiple regression Spring 2007

2. Regression Analysis (迴歸分析) • Y = f(X): Y is a function of X • Regression analysis: a method of determining the specific function relating Y to X • Linear Regression (線性迴歸分析): a popular model in social science • A brief review offered here • Can see ppt files on the course website

3. Example: summarize the relationship with a straight line

4. Draw a straight line, but how? (怎麼畫那條直線?)

5. Notice that some predictions are not completely accurate.

6. How to draw the line? • Purpose: draw the regression line to give the most accurate predictions of y given x • Criteria for “accurate”: Sum of (observed y – predicted y)2 = sum of (prediction errors) 2 [觀察值與估計值之差的平方和] Called the sum of squared errors or sum of the squared residuals (SSE)

7. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression (普通最小平方法) • The regression line is drawn so as to minimize the sum of the squared vertical distances from the points to the line (讓SSE最小) • This line minimize squared predictive error • This line will pass through the middle of the point cloud (迴歸線從資料群中間穿過)(think as a nice choice to describe the relationship)

8. To describe a regression line (equation): • Algebraically, line described by its intercept (截距) and slope (斜率) • Notation: y = the dependent variable x = the independent variable y_hat = predicted y, based on the regression line β = slope of the regression line α= intercept of the regression line

9. The meaning of slope and intercept: slope = change in (y_hat) for a 1 unit change in x (x一單位的改變導致y估計值的變化) intercept = value of (y_hat) when x is 0 解釋截距與斜率時要注意到x and y的單位

10. General equation of a regression line: (y_hat) = α +βx where α and β are chosen to minimize: sum of (observed y – predicted y)2 A formula for α and β which minimize this sum is programmed into statistical programs and calculators

11. An example of a regression line

12. Fit: how much can regression explain? (迴歸能解釋y多少的變異？) • Look at the regression equation again: (y_hat) = α +βx y = α +βx + ε • Data = what we explain + what we don’t explain • Data = predicted + residual (資料有我們不能解釋的與可解釋的部分，即能預估的與誤差的部分）

13. In regression, we can think “fit” in this way: • Total variation = sum of squares of y • explained variation = total variation explained by our predictions • unexplained variation = sum of squares of residuals • R2 = (explained variation)/ (total variation) （判定係數） [y 全部的變易量中迴歸分析能解釋的部分]

14. R2 = r2 NOTE: a special feature of simple regression (OLS), this is not true for multiple regression or other regression methods. [注意：這是簡單迴歸分析的特性，不適用於多元迴歸分析或其他迴歸分析]

15. Some cautions about regression and R2 • It’s dangerous to use R2 to judge how “good” a regression is. (不要用R2來判斷迴歸的適用性) • The “appropriateness” of regression is not a function of R2 • When to use regression? • Not suitable for non-linear shapes [you can modify non-linear shapes] • regression is appropriate when r (correlation) is appropriate as a measure

16. 補充: Proportional Reduction of Error (PRE)(消減錯誤的比例) • PRE measures compare the errors of predictions under different prediction rules; contrasts a naïve to sophisticated rule • R2 is a PRE measure • Naïve rule = predict y_bar • Sophisticated rule = predict y_hat • R2 measures reduction in predictive error from using regression predictions as contrasted to predicting the mean of y

17. Cautions about correlation and regression: • Extrapolation is not appropriate • Regression: pay attention to lurking or omitted variables • Lurking (omitted) variables: having influence on the relationship between two variables but is not included among the variables studied • A problem in establishing causation • Association does not imply causation. • Association alone: weak evidence about causation • Experiments with random assignment are the best way to establish causation.

18. Inference for Simple Regression

19. Regression Equation Equation of a regression line: (y_hat) = α +βx y = α +βx + ε y = dependent variable x = independent variable β = slope = predicted change in y with a one unit change in x α= intercept = predicted value of y when x is 0 y_hat = predicted value of dependent variable

20. Global test--F檢定: 檢定迴歸方程式有無解釋能力 (β= 0)

22. The regression model (迴歸模型) • Note: the slope and intercept of the regression line are statistics (i.e., from the sample data). • To do inference, we have to think of α and β as estimates of unknown parameters.

23. Inference for regression • Population regression line: μy = α +βx estimated from sample: (y_hat) = a + bx b is an unbiased estimator (不偏估計式)of the true slope β, and a is an unbiased estimator of the true intercept α

24. Sampling distribution of a (intercept) and b (slope) • Mean of the sampling distribution of a is α • Mean of the sampling distribution of b is β

25. Sampling distribution of a (intercept) and b (slope) • Mean of the sampling distribution of a is α • Mean of the sampling distribution of b is β • The standard error of a and b are related to the amount of spread about the regression line (σ) • Normal sampling distributions; with σ estimated use t-distribution for inference

26. The standard error of the least-squares line • Estimate σ (spread about the regression line using residuals from the regression) • recall that residual = (y –y_hat) • Estimate the population standard deviation about the regression line (σ) using the sample estimates

27. Estimate σ from sample data

28. Standard Error of Slope (b) • The standard error of the slope has a sampling distribution given by: • Small standard errors of b means our estimate of b is a precise estimate of β • SEb is directly related to s; inversely related to sample size (n) and Sx

29. Confidence Interval for regression slope A level C confidence interval for the slope of “true” regression line β is b ± t * SEb Where t* is the upper (1-C)/2 critical value from the t distribution with n-2 degrees of freedom To test the hypothesis H0: β= 0, compute the t statistic: t = b/ SEb In terms of a random variable having the t,n-2 distribution

30. Significance Tests for the slope Test hypotheses about the slope of β. Usually: H0: β= 0 (no linear relationship between the independent and dependent variable) Alternatives: HA: β＞ 0 or HA: β＜ 0 or HA: β ≠ 0

32. Statistical inference for intercept We could also do statistical inference for the regression intercept, α Possible hypotheses: H0: α = 0 HA: α≠ 0 t-test based on a, very similar to prior t-tests we have done For most substantive applications, interested in slope (β), not usually interested in α

33. Example: SPSS Regression Procedures and Output • To get a scatterplot (): 統計圖(G) → 散佈圖(S) →簡單 →定義（選x及y） • To get a correlation coefficient: 分析(A) → 相關(C) → 雙變量 • To perform simple regression 分析(A) → 迴歸方法(R) → 線性(L) （選x及y）（還可選擇儲存預測值及殘差）

34. SPSS Example: Infant mortality vs. Female Literacy, 1995 UN Data

35. Example: correlation between infant mortality and female literacy

36. Regression: infant mortality vs. female literacy, 1995 UN Data

37. Regression: infant mortality vs. female literacy, 1995 UN Data

38. Hypothesis test example 大華正在分析教育成就的世代差異，他蒐集到117組父子教育程度的資料。父親的教育程度是自變項，兒子的教育程度是依變項。他的迴歸公式是：y_hat = 0.2915*x +10.25 迴歸斜率的標準誤差(standard error)是: 0.10 • 在α=0.05，大華可得出父親與兒子的教育程度是有關連的嗎？ • 對所有父親的教育程度是大學畢業的男孩而言，這些男孩的平均教育程度預測值是多少？ • 有一男孩的父親教育程度是大學畢業，預測這男孩將來的教育程度會是多少？