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WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS

WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS IN THE SDS-WAS IMPLEMENTATION. Slobodan Nickovic Research Department World Meteorological Organization. Dust Plumes off Libya and Egypt February 18, 2011.

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WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS

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  1. WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) SOME RESEARCH ASPECTS IN THE SDS-WAS IMPLEMENTATION Slobodan Nickovic Research Department World Meteorological Organization WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  2. Dust Plumes off Libya and EgyptFebruary 18, 2011 WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  3. Health NASA dust-health related project REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011) • MODIS detection of dust strom WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  4. Health NASA dust-health related project REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011) • Sources based on MODIS hi-res data WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  5. Health NASA dust-health related project REASoN – PHAiRS (2008-2011) • Hot-spot structure of sources • Requires hi-res models WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  6. Comparison with observed values Mean values for 3 locations with observations: Casa Grande, Stanfield, Cowtown 19-22h UTC 450 00-03h UTC 430 WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  7. Health MERIT project • Links between meningitis and dusty weather • Project partners: WMO, WHO, GEO, IRI • MACC – AEMET & BSC Sahel region within the meningitis epidemics area BSC dust model – 46 years of dust & weather reanalysis (Perez et al., 2007) WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  8. WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  9. WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  10. Aviation TUNIS (CNN) 7 May, 2002, 17:44 GMT-- An EgyptAir jet crashed on a hillside outside Tunisia's capital, killing 18 people, a government official said… …Weather was foggy and rainy at the time, with sandstorms blowing in from the Sahara Desert. ... WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  11. Predicted dust load (μg m-2) Predicted cross-section dust concentration (μg m-3) Features of the case: - Major Mediterranean dust storm - Fast moving system - More than 5 mg m-3 in the elevated dust cloud core! dust 06 UTC, 7 May 2002 18-hr forecast 06 UTC, 7 May 2002 18-hr forecast 12 UTC, 7 May 2002 24-hr forecast 12 UTC, 7 May 2002 24-hr forecast Tunisian dust storm captured by MODIS Source: Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey Site of the accident 18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast 18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  12. Without aerosol Feedback With aerosol feedback Dust-radiation interactions Including interaction dust and radiation can Improve Weather Forecasts In A Regional Model (Nickovic 2002) Through negative feedback on winds “dust kills dust”. Perez et al., 2006 Ground cools down by ~5 C during strong SDS and air aloft warms slightly WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  13. WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  14. Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly in the UK operational model over the Sahara? Haywood, et al., JGR 2003 WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  15. Assimilation MODIS AOD in ECMWF MACC WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  16. Assimilation of MACC dust AOD in a regional dust model (WMO South East Regional Climate Centre) Without assimilation With assimilation WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  17. D8-NO ASSIMILATION D8-WITH ASSIMILATION DUST LOAD WET DEPOSITION 04March 2010 Case of yellow snow observed by visitors in the Kopaonik sky resort (location marked with ) WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  18. Importance of mineral composition in desert soils • Fe and P embedded in dust  ocean nutrients • cloud ice nucleation sensitive to mineral composition • Hypothesis: Fe as an enhancement factor in meningitis outbreaks (Thompson, 2008) WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  19. Kaolinite Smectite Illite Clay soils Fe-containing minerals A(I,J); 4km Calcite Quartz Feldspar Calcite Quartz Silt soils Hematite WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  20. ATMOSPHERIC IRON PROCESSING WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  21. Ocean productivityWMO in GESAMP • Dust is a carrier of the embedded nutrients such as Fe and phosphorus • In remote oceans, input of iron in dust dominates other inputs • Soluble iron is an essential micronutrient in marine environments • SDS-WAS and GESAMP • (joint workshop, March 2011) Algae Bloom Canary Islands August 2004 (Ramos et al., 2008) WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  22. Vertical Horizontal Solubility Concentration WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  23. Dust – efficient ice nucleation substance Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe • The number concentration of ice nuclei data • since January 2008 at the Taunus Observatory • DREAM simulations • Joint study [Goethe-University group and WMO (Nickovic, Barrie)] • combining observations and dust modelling • May 2008 case • Klein, et al: Saharan Dust And Ice Nuclei Over Central Europe (ACP, 2010) WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  24. 25 May 09 27 May 09 DREAM simulation: Dust load and 850 hPa wind streamlines 29 May 09 WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  25. Model Observations WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  26. Homogenization of forecasts ECMWF-dust BSC-DREAM ……N Model • Homogenization • Data format (GRIB2) • Products • Forecasting range +72h, every 3h • Geographical domain • - Lat/Lon • Color palette • ... Dust aerosol at the surface (mg m-3) Dust Aerosol optical depth at 550nm WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

  27. International Cooperative on AerosolPrediction (ICAP) NAAPS GEOS MACC WWRP JSC 21-24 February 2011

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