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What you see depends on your experience Do you see the dolphins in this picture?

What you see depends on your experience Do you see the dolphins in this picture?. And, now time for a little test…. First one half of the room…. Now the other half of the room…. As quickly as you can tell me what you see…. A “Priming” effect on perception can also come from expectation.

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What you see depends on your experience Do you see the dolphins in this picture?

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  1. What you see depends on your experienceDo you see the dolphins in this picture?

  2. And, now time for a little test… First one half of the room…

  3. Now the other half of the room…

  4. As quickly as you can tell me what you see…

  5. A “Priming” effect on perception can also come from expectation • Red Panda escape from Rotterdam Zoo • After call for help, hundreds of sightings • But dead panda found shortly before reports actually went out!? • Classic Experiment with “Psych 101” Students • Told were given “smart rat” or “dumb rat” • Despite rats apparently being similar, big differences reported • Example to everyone of the importanve of “blinding” experiments

  6. The case of “Clever Hans” • Wilhelm van Osten claimed that is horse could do math, tell calendar time, understand German etc.. • Was studied by German Board of Education Commission • Oskar Pfungst led the key studies • “Blinded” queries to Clever Hans (i.e., van Osten did not know the question) • Hans’ performance plummeted – answered the questions put to van Osten • Hans was responding to subtle cues from van Osten • “observer expectancy effect” • Pfungst able to reproduce the effect by “playing “ the role of Hans! • Despite this, van Osten was unconvinced!

  7. “People say believe half of what you see…and none of what you hear” Auditory Illusions: Shepard’s Tones http://vimeo.com/34749558

  8. What better proof of our perceptual limitations than… Magic! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3iPrBrGSJM&feature=iv&src_vid=voAntzB7EwE&annotation_id=annotation_262395

  9. Beyond perception, you can’t trust instinctive conclusions • We are wired to detect patterns, infer causality • Valuable for survival (fpredator schedules, poisonous foods…) • As with faces, we can infer causality where none actually exists

  10. The Illusion of Confidence - Dunning-Kruger Effect Subjects self-evaluated ability in 4 areas; abilities were quantified, put in quartiles and compared. • The more you learn, the more you recognize how little you know.  This is why, for example, respected climate scientists never state without a doubt  • “Isn’t it also true that confidence in males is a highly desired element of sexual attraction? Thus, a lot of jerks get the dates, not because of inherent superior qualities, but because of delusional self-confidence. And think of how that affects the gene pool.” (Brian Crouch https://twitter.com/briancrouch)

  11. Problems Caused by The Illusion of Confidence • Doctors visits • An MD who consults a reference is seen as not as competent • Group decision process • First to speak is perceived as confident, and becomes the leader! • “Con” in Conman” comes from the word “confidence” • Our culture prizes confidence…too much: ?

  12. The illusion of certainty – An example • Elon U break-in case • Woman studied assailant’s face in detail • Picked out suspect’s face from photographs • Identified in line-up • Conviction based solely on eye-witness, considered credible because of her confidence. • Re-trial after another convict confessed to a related crime, eyewitness “has never seen new suspect before”, sentence for original suspect increase • When DNA analysis became available, conviction overturned –it was the other convict! • Victim is now an advocate for doubting eyewitness testimony • "It's a human system," Cannino said. "We are fallible. We make mistakes. There are practices that can be put into place."

  13. The Illusion of better-than-usual “Flashbulb Memory” • Space-shuttle “Challenger” disaster January 28th, 1986 • The next day, psychologists at Emory U. had 106 students write down when, where, how, with whom etc. they first heard the news • 2 ½ years later, found 44 of those students, had them repeat the exercise • Average “correspondence” was poor (3 out of possible 7) • 25% scored 0/7 • Confidence had no correlation with accuracy • 75% did not recall filling out the original questionnaire • Even when shown original report, some claimed later version correct!?

  14. The Illusion of “Repressed Memories” = “Implanted Memories” Elizabeth Loftus • Childhood story experiment • One fictitious event suggested, at first not recalled, but later “remembered” • Many were confident in the recall, some even elaborated on the original “memory” • Eyewitness experiment • Video that depicted a traffic accident. Subjects were then asked either: • “How fast were the cars going when they smashed into each other?” • “How fast were the cars going when they hit each other?” • Participants cued with “smashed” were more likely to claim that they’d seen shattered glass (there wasn’t any) and to give faster estimates of vehicle speed • Reminiscent of “Facilitated Communication” debacle

  15. Even neurosurgeons can get fooled by their brains • Over-confidence in his recollections • Misremembered facts (infection, level of consciousness, weather…) • Misunderstanding of how “real” mental states can feel • Lack of appreciation of perceptual errors and suggestibility • Lack of appreciation of alternative explanations • It is curious that he does not allow this obvious and natural explanation, but instead insists on a supernatural one. To deny the possibility of any natural explanation for an NDE, Alexander does, is more than unscientific - it is antiscientific. It precludes the scientific investigation of such states. • Article that investigates the author and the book: • http://www.esquire.com/entertainment/interviews/a23248/the-prophet/ “ “ • Oliver Sacks, Atlantic Monthly, December 12, 2012

  16. The Powerful, Fallible, Over-confident Brain – Summary • What we perceive as reality is entirely a construct made by our brains. • Our brains are wired to look for patterns and cause and effect, so we often “see” what is not there, and because of the limits of attention, we can miss what is there. • Our perceptions are biased by experience and expectation, hopes and beliefs. • Confidence/Certainty is seductive – but not reliably predictive of accuracy. • These imperfections are normal, do not mean lack of intelligence, sanity or character. • Therefore, compasionate skepticism is in order in dealing with anecdotal claims. This is why good science requires rigor (controls, blinding, documentation) and is difficult. • You now have knowledge that is difficult for many people to accept (that their senses, perceptions, memories, confidence are, naturally, fallible). Be tolerant, be a good messenger, and remember that you still have all of these limitations too!

  17. Recommended Reads / Listens

  18. Thank you for your attention Questions? Comments?

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