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U.S. Beef International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges

This presentation discusses the evolving landscape of international markets for U.S. beef, exploring the significant opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Key topics include population growth projections, income drivers of animal protein demand, the impact of trade on the U.S. beef industry, and the influence of exchange rates. Additionally, it addresses historical hurdles such as BSE and trade barriers, as well as the importance of tailored strategies for building foreign demand. As the beef industry adapts to changes in global markets, understanding these dynamics will be essential for growth.

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U.S. Beef International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges

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  1. International Markets: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Beef Denver, Colorado April 2, 2013 James G. Robb Director www.lmic.info

  2. 29 land Grant Universities: USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU

  3. Trade Background, Outlook, Issues… • The Big Picture – Population, Income, and Trade • Value of Trade to the U.S. Beef Industry • Comments on Exchange Rates • More on Beef Exports • Some Challenges and Issues

  4. The Big Picture

  5. Population and Income Drive Trade • Rate of population growth slowing, still by 2050 the projection by U.S. Bureau of Census is for 33% more people worldwide. • Top 5 Most Populated Countries in 2050 • India – 1,656 Million • China – 1,424 Million • U.S.A. – 439 Million • Indonesia – 313 Million • Ethiopia – 278 Million • To meet basic needs plus growing incomes animal protein consumption will need to double by 2050 (Economist Nov 21, 2009)

  6. Data Source: IMF

  7. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  8. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  9. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  10. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  11. Value of Trade

  12. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Data Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service, Univ. of B.C.

  16. Beef Exports

  17. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Data Source: USDA-FAS & ERS

  21. Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS; Forecasts by LMIC

  22. Some Challenges & Issues

  23. Comments– Issues, Issues, Issues… • 9-11-2001, BSE in late 2003, 2008 Credit Crisis/Recession All Had Major Trade Impacts and Lowered Cattle Prices • COOL – Trade Issue • Traceability – Niche and High Value vs Commodity Beef • Phytosanitary (BSE, H1N1) – Trade Barriers Of Choice • Beta-agonists (currently Russia and China) • Many Foreign Consumers are Evolving Quickly • Building Foreign Demand Takes Effort (often country specific knowledge) • Exports Require Infrastructure and Credit (guarantees, letters of credit, and other things often taken for granted) • Trade Agreements are Important

  24. Comments– Country Specific • Countries/Regions to Monitor Near-Term • Japan – Removal of Barrier but also Economic Headwinds • Mexico – Drought Devastated Cowherd • Oceana – Drought, especially New Zealand • Countries to Keep Tabs On Longer-Term • Cuba • China

  25. www.lmic.info Thank You!

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