Understanding Redistricting and its Impact on the 2012 Elections

2. Redistricting And The 2012 Election Bernadette BuddeSenior Vice President, Political AnalysisMichael DavisVice President, Political Programs July 13, 2011

3. BAB’S PRINCIPLES • It never turns out exactly as the party operatives think • Ten years is a very long time (3 presidential elections) • This version feels less partisan than ‘70/’80/’90/2000 • Incumbents serve in current districts (decide on your grassroots strategy) • Incumbents run in new districts (decide on your PAC strategy) • Demographic reality outweighs lines • None of this makes the issues go away

4. BAB’S TERMINOLOGY • Merged pairs • Two incumbents running against each other • In primary:  example, LA-3 Boustany (R) and Landry (R) – eliminates one seat for the party regardless of primary winner • In general:  example, IA-3 Boswell (D) and Latham (R) – eliminates one seat for the party losing the general election • Seats without incumbents where a freshman will be elected • Consequences of redistricting • Added seat:  example, TX gains four seats • Redistricted hole:  example, “gaps” where an incumbent could have run but due to district realignment decides not to run; usually occurs in states losing seats (such as IL) or not gaining seats (such as CA) • Traditional open seats • Incumbent lost in primary to a challenger • Incumbent runs for another office:  example IN-6 Pence (R) • Incumbent not seeking reelection:  example OK-2 Boren (D)

5. BAB’S TERMINOLOGY (cont.) • Don’t make yourself crazy • If you don’t keep track yourself, find a source you feel is reliable and stick with that source; every pundit will label and then tally in a slightly different way. • In the end, there are only 435 districts.  If your list of plus/minus doesn’t add up to 435, the list is wrong. • We don’t know the partisan impact of redistricting until we know the outcome of all general elections • Easiest way to get House to add back up to 435 is to count victories for one party as they occur • Tabulate the number of seats gained or lost for one party with a baseline of where each party began going into election night

11. Hispanic Voters& Why The GOP Is In Trouble

12. U.S. POPULATION GROWTH, 2005-2010

14. HISPANIC % OF POPULATION,UNDER 18

16. FOR GOP TO WIN WHITE HOUSE IN 2012, THE GOP NEEDS TO WIN THE FOLLOWING STATES(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,OBAMA WIN %)

20. TEXAS GOES DEMOCRAT IN 2020(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,OBAMA WIN %)

25. EXPECTED PARTISAN CHANGE-3 REP / +6 DEM (As of July 13, 2011)

26. REDISTRICTING TIMELINE

27. REDISTRICTING TIMELINE

28. ARKANSAS

29. OLD - 2001 AR CD MAP NEW - 2011 AR CD MAP

30. ARKANSAS (3-1 REP)

31. ILLINOIS

32. OLD – 2001 CD MAP NEW – 2011 CD MAP

33. ILLINOIS (11-8 REP)

34. INDIANA

35. OLD – 2001 IN CD MAP NEW - 2011 IN CD MAP

36. INDIANA (6-3 REP)

37. IOWA

38. OLD – 2001 IA CD MAP NEW – 2011 IA CD MAP

39. IOWA (3-2 DEM)

40. LOUISIANA

41. OLD – 2001 LA CD MAP NEW – 2011 LA CD MAP LA-03 MAP

42. LOUISIANA (6-1 REP)

43. MISSOURI

44. OLD – 2001 MO CD MAP NEW – 2011 MO CD MAP

45. MISSOURI (6-3 REP)

46. NEBRASKA

47. OLD – 2001 NE CD MAP NEW – 2011 NE CD MAP

48. NEBRASKA (3-0 REP)

49. OKLAHOMA

50. OLD – 2001 OK CD MAP NEW – 2011 OK CD MAP