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CARBOB Model for Efficient Fuel Blending Analysis

Learn why the CARBOB Model is essential for streamlining enforcement and predicting fuel specifications. The methodology involves SAS regression, diagnostic plots, and comprehensive data analysis. Models for RVP, T90, and T50 provide accurate predictions for different ethanol contents. Ongoing work aims to enhance these models further.

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CARBOB Model for Efficient Fuel Blending Analysis

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  1. CARBOB Model Western States Petroleum Association July 25, 2000

  2. Why A CARBOB Model? • Current Regulations (2266.5) Require CARBOB To Be Hand Blended With Ethanol Before Testing • CARBOB Model: • Provides An Alternative To Hand Blending • Is Compatible With In-Line Analyzers • Streamlines Enforcement

  3. CARBOB Model • Front End To Predictive Model • Input CARBOB Specifications • Predict Equivalent Blended Fuel Specifications • Perform Emissions Calculations • Model RVP, T50 And T90 • Calculate Aromatics, Olefins, Sulfur, Benzene And Oxygen

  4. Current: Proposed Blend Specifications Pass or Fail Predictive Model Future: Proposed CARBOB Specifications CARBOB Model

  5. Analysis Methodology • SAS Least Squares Multiple Regressions • Blended Property = f(Base HC Property) • “All Possible Subsets” Of Primary And Interaction Terms • True Stepwise (Forward + Backward) Elimination • Include Only Significant Terms And Exclude Terms That Increase R2 / Decrease RMSE By A Small Amount • Diagnostic Plots For Checking Non-Random Patterns And Goodness-Of-Fit

  6. RVP Model • Data Basis: • RVPBase 9.0 • Ethanol Contents From 4% To 10% • 297 Observations • RVPBlend = 1.446 + 0.961 * RVPBase • RMSE = 0.152 • R2 = 0.966

  7. T90 Model • Data Basis: • All Data With RVP Data (464 Observations) • T90 Blend = 1.493 + 0.964 * T90 Base + 0.0468 * T50 Base - 0.473 * Ethanol • RMSE = 3.66 • R2 = 0.954

  8. T50 Model • Data Observed To Behave Differently At High And Low Ethanol Contents • Two Model Ranges: • 4%  EtOH  9% • 9%  EtOH  10%

  9. T50 Model - 4%  EtOH  9% • Data Basis: • 242 Observations • T50 Blend = 21.930 + 14.875*EtOH - 10.238*RVPBase + 0.6720*T50 Base + 0.02579*T90 Base • - 0.8313*EtOH2 - 0.3103*RVPBase*EtOH • + 0.06623*T50 Base*EtOH - 0.05519*T90 Base*EtOH • + 0.03607*RVPBase*T90 Base • RMSE = 3.18 • R2 = 0.945

  10. T50 Model - 9%  EtOH  10% • Data Basis: • 188 Observations • 2 Outliers Removed • EtOH Content Excluded From Terms • T50 Blend = 559.276 - 0.5431*RVPBase • - 4.1884*T50 Base - 0.3957*T90 Base • + 0.01482*T502 - 0.05309*T50*RVPBase • + 0.02884*T90*RVPBase • RMSE = 5.82 • R2 = 0.954

  11. Summary • Have Developed Workable Models • Work Will Continue To Improve Models

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