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By: John Duberg Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 21, 2009

The Housing Market Implications of BRAC Activities at FGGM. On Behalf of Anne Arundel County BRAC Taskforce. By: John Duberg Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 21, 2009. Primary Project Objectives. Assess the impact of BRAC for Anne Arundel County, Howard County, and the City of Laurel on :

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By: John Duberg Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 21, 2009

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  1. The Housing Market Implications of BRAC Activities at FGGM On Behalf of Anne Arundel County BRAC Taskforce By: John Duberg Sage Policy Group, Inc. October 21, 2009

  2. Primary Project Objectives • Assess the impact of BRAC for Anne Arundel County, Howard County, and the City of Laurel on : • Housing Demand for owner-occupied and rental housing; • Housing Supply; • Housing Stratification by price point; & • Gaps in Housing Supply along multiple dimensions, including price/affordability.

  3. Housing Demand

  4. Employment generated by FGGM BRAC

  5. Location of all FGGM BRAC-related Housing Demand Source: FGGM data on housing location of current workers, Sage

  6. Net increase in housing demand by jurisdiction by owner-occupied & rented Source:Sage

  7. Housing Supply

  8. Anne Arundel County Housing Stock Projections 2006-2015 (steady state) Source: Anne Arundel County Department of Planning and Zoning

  9. Anne Arundel County home sales by Fiscal Analysis Zone

  10. Housing Stratification

  11. Net increase in housing demand by jurisdiction due to BRAC Source: Sage

  12. Distribution of net new BRAC-related housing demand by household income Source: Sage

  13. Housing demand by household income bracket by jurisdiction Source: Sage

  14. Housing Gap

  15. Historic Housing Availability, 2000 and 2005-2007 Source: U.S. Census, Anne Arundel County, Howard County, City of Laurel, Sage

  16. Future Housing Availability (est.), 2010 and 2015 Source: U.S. Census, Anne Arundel County, Howard County, City of Laurel, Sage

  17. Steady state BRAC demand by 2015: households earning less than $80,000 Roughly 30 percent of demand in these counties will be displaced due to lack of affordability.

  18. Strategies for Affordable Housing • Expand the availability of sites; • Change Land Use Policies; • Funding Strategies; and • Empower Residents.

  19. Conclusions • Despite the ongoing and historic downturn in housing activity, BRAC implementation will lead to a surplus of demand in both Anne Arundel and Howard counties, though not in the City of Laurel – this has much to do with the lack of new construction in recent years; • Affordability, or the lack thereof, will become even more of an issue for households earning less than $80k per year – historically, public policymakers have induced people to endure lengthy commutes; & • BRAC-related demand creates opportunities to do things differently, including more aggressive transit-oriented development and denser communities.

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