Slide

1. Examples in Quantifying Flood Risk Presentation to National Flood Risk Management Policy Summit Edward Hecker Director, Contingency Operations U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 14 July 2009 Slide 1

2.  levee_flood_fight_site  levee_break_site sand_boil_point levee_inspection_line piezometer_point cross_section_line borehole_point levee_inspection_point  encroachment_site Flood Risk Management Inventory and Assessments • National Levee Inventory: • Living database and national resource. • Include all federal and nonfederal levees • Risk Assessments: • Identify failure modes and prioritize remedial actions.

3. Risk Quantification Flood Risk Management Risk = Hazard Probability X System Performance X Consequences Flood Hazards Seismic Hazards Asymmetric Hazards Life Loss Property Damage Social and Economic Damage Environment Evacuation Disaster Recovery Infrastructure Reliability Infrastructure Resilience Operation & Maintenance Contingency Planning and Response Mitigation • Risk Quantification is key to managing risks: • Understanding the source and nature of the Risk • Communicating the Risk • Acting to Reduce the Risk Probability of Failure

4. Tolerable Risk Guidelineswithin a Risk Framework Informing Assessments: How Safe is Safe? Priority & Urgency What is Tolerable? Informing Management: Effectiveness of Interim Measures? What Options are Available? What is Practicable? How Well Justified is Action? Informing Communication: How reliable is it? What are Societal Risks? What Risks Remain? Flood Risk Management Tolerable Risk Guidelines TRG Risk Framework

5. Shared Flood Risk Management Residual Risk

6. Policy Studies • Wise Use of Floodplains – An ongoing, IWR policy study to understand the effects of USACE programs and policies in different policy and watershed contexts on floodplain management choices affecting flood risk, and to describe options for policy, legislative or program reforms. • WRDA 2007, Section 2032 - The President is to submit a report to Congress describing the vulnerability of the U.S. to damage from flooding, comparative risks faced by different regions of the country, programs in the U.S. which may be encouraging development and economic activity in flood prone areas, and recommendations for improving those programs and proposals for implementing the recommendations.