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Traders Forum: Centurion

Traders Forum: Centurion. Shaun van den Berg Head of Client Education Tuesday, 17 th September 2013 18h00 until 20h00. Agenda. Technical Market Overview Share Selection Process Fundamental checklist Technical checklist Discuss our last few trades on The Stockbroker

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Traders Forum: Centurion

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  1. Traders Forum: Centurion Shaun van den Berg Head of Client Education Tuesday, 17th September 2013 18h00 until 20h00

  2. Agenda • Technical Market Overview • Share Selection Process • Fundamental checklist • Technical checklist • Discuss our last few trades on The Stockbroker • Discuss our last few recommendations for The Investor • Upcoming Webinars • Traders Forums • Summary • Conclusion

  3. Technical Market Overview • S&P 500 Index • Hang Seng Index • Nikkei Index • DAX Index • FTSE 100 Index

  4. S & P 500 (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Support Bullish

  5. Hang Seng Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  6. Nikkei Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  7. DAX Index (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Bullish

  8. FT 100 Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  9. Technical Market Overview – Major Equity Markets • S&P 500 Index • Bullish / New Highs • Hang Seng Index • Bullish / Breaking out above resistance / Triangle • Nikkei Index • Bullish / Triangle forming • DAX Index • Bullish / Up channel / Sideways – consolidation? • FTSE 100 Index • Bullish / Triangle / Needs to breakout above resistance

  10. Technical Market Overview • Brent Crude Oil • Gold $ • Platinum $ • Euro / US $ • Rand $

  11. Brent Crude Oil Resistance Support Bullish

  12. Gold $ Resistance Resistance Support Bearish

  13. Platinum $ Bearish

  14. Euro/ USD Resistance Support USD Weakness

  15. Rand $ Resistance ZAR Weakness

  16. Technical Market Overview – Precious Metals & Currencies • Brent Crude Oil • Bullish • Gold $ • Bearish / Broken below support • Platinum $ • Bearish / Testing support • Euro / US $ • Dollar Weakness / Triangle • Rand $ • Rand Weakness / Channel down

  17. Technical Market Overview • JSE Top 40 Index • JSE Resources 20 Index • JSE Gold Mining Index • JSE Platinum Mining Index • JSE FINDI 30 Index

  18. JSE Top 40 Index (Daily) Resistance Resistance Support Bullish

  19. JSE Resources 20 Index Resistance Support Support Bullish

  20. JSE Gold Mining Index Resistance Support Support Bearish

  21. JSE Platinum Mining Index Resistance Support Bearish (Just!)

  22. JSE FINDI 30 Index Resistance Support Bullish

  23. Summary: TradeWise Report

  24. Summary: Technical Overview • JSE Top 40 Index - Bullish • JSE Res 20 Index • Bullish / Sideways • JSE Gold Mining Index • Bearish / New Lows? • JSE Platinum Mining • Bearish (Just!) • JSE FINDI 30 Index – Bullish • S&P 500 Index - Bullish • Hang Seng Index - Bullish • Nikkei Index - Bullish • DAX Index - Bullish • FT 100 Index - Bullish • Brent Crude Oil - Bearish • Gold $ - Bearish • Platinum $ - Bullish • USD/ EUR- Weakness • ZAR/ USD - Weakness • Opportunities? • Rand Hedge Shares

  25. Technical Overview: Naspers

  26. Technical Overview: BATS

  27. Technical Overview: SAB Miller

  28. Technical Overview: Richemont

  29. Technical Overview: MTN Group

  30. Share Selection Process

  31. The Share Selection Process My Watch List Step 2: Analysis Process Core Portfolio 8 - 12 Shares Step 1: Prospecting Process 3 x 30 Shares Watch List 400 Shares

  32. Prospecting: Top - Down Approach • International Markets • Economic Indicators • Exchange Rates • Precious Metals • Local Markets • Specific Sectors • Specific Shares • Checklists

  33. Prospecting: Financial Journalism • Read! Read! Read! • Bloomberg / Reuters/ CNN Money • Business Day / Business Report/ Sake • Financial Mail / FinWeek • PSG Online / MoneyWeb / Fin24 • Beware Analysis Paralysis • Scan Headlines – Shares you know • Look for Bad News

  34. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis Undervalued P/E < 18 PEG < 75 P/NAV < 2 Profitable ROE % > 15% Interest Cover> 3 times Risk Management

  35. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis

  36. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis • Value Search • Undervalued, Quality Shares • Quality rating > 70 • PEG > 35 < 75 • P/NAV <2 • ROE% > 15 • DY% 3.0%

  37. Prospecting: Fundamental Analysis

  38. Fundamental Analysis: Company Analysis

  39. Prospecting: Technical Analysis Trending Cycles / Moving Averages Trend Lines Support & Resistance Chart Patterns Overbought/Oversold Stochastic & RSI MACD OBV & VPT Outperformance/Underperformance Relative StrengthAnalysis

  40. Technical Analysis: Hi-Liter Scan

  41. Technical Analysis: MACD Oversold

  42. Technical Analysis: MACD Overbought

  43. Technical Analysis: MACD Overbought

  44. Technical Analysis: MACD Overbought

  45. Technical Analysis: Hi-Liter Scan

  46. Technical Analysis: Market Outperform

  47. Technical Analysis: Market Outperform

  48. Technical Analysis: Market Outperform

  49. Technical Analysis: Hi-Liter Scan

  50. Technical Analysis: Market Underperform

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