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What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?

What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?. The TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Ronald F. Kirby Director, COG Department of Transportation Planning Seminar on Transit-Oriented Development The Dulles Area Transportation Association September 28, 2005.

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What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?

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  1. What If…The Washington Region Grew Differently? The TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Ronald F. Kirby Director, COG Department of Transportation Planning Seminar on Transit-Oriented Development The Dulles Area Transportation Association September 28, 2005

  2. The Washington Region • Approximately 3,000 square miles • Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs • The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the TPB planning area.

  3. The TPB VisionApproved in 1998 • A policy framework guiding the region’s transportation investments in the 21st century. • Goals include: • Promoting activity centers • Increasing transit use • Reducing driving

  4. Regional Activity Centers Intended to be focal points for jobs and housing, and nodes for transportation linkages.

  5. In 2000, the TPB recognized that in many respects, the region’s long-range transportation plan was falling short of the Vision...

  6. Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for MaintenanceLittle money is available for new transportation projects New Roads and Transit* 23% 77% Operations & Preservation* * Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

  7. The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace with Growth 2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million 2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

  8. Congested Flow Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) Stop and Go Conditions Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph) (Average Speed < 30 mph) Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and GoEvening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030 2000 2030

  9. Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be PackedMorning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030 Congested 2000 2030 Highly Congested

  10. How can we move closer to the Vision? In 2000, the TPB initiated a study to investigate scenarios that might better meet the objectives of the Vision: • Promoting activity centers • Increasing transit use • Reducing driving

  11. Study of “What If” Scenarios • What ifjob and housing growth were shifted? What if new roads or transit were built? • How would 2030 travel conditions change? • Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”

  12. Some Ground Rules • The study only shifted anticipated growth between 2010 and 2030 • Therefore the scenarios shift a relatively small percentage of the total jobs and households anticipated for 2030 2030 Households 13% Underway or in the pipeline Growth by 2010 Already in place Growth by 2030 15% Households in 2000 Affected by scenarios 72%

  13. Developing the Scenarios:What arekey issuesrelated to land use and transportation?

  14. Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands) Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs Forecast Job Growth The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania Forecast Household Growth Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

  15. Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs • Inner jurisdictions – most job growth • Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth The average commute is more than 30 minutes.

  16. Issue #3: East-West Divide A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western parts of the region Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000

  17. Up to 30 minutes Up to 40 minutes Over 40 minutes Issue #3: East-West DivideWest-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour Average Commute Time Morning Rush Hour

  18. Outside Transit Station Areas 30% 70% Inside Transit Station Areas 20% 80% Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas Employment Growth 2010 to 2030 Household Growth 2010 to 2030

  19. Addressing the issues:What if we shiftedjob and household growth?

  20. What if people lived and worked closer to transit? “Transit Oriented Development” Scenario • Locate job and household growth around transit stations Metro Rail Commuter Rail Bus Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs

  21. Land around existing transit would be better used… Plus more jobs and housing would be clustered around futuretransit lines, like Rail to Tysons and to Dulles…

  22. How would 2030 travel conditions change? Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030 “Transit Oriented Development” Scenario Transit Trips Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Capita Severe AM Peak Period Congestion

  23. Under this scenario, driving would decrease by 1.2 million vehicle miles per day . . . The equivalent of 48 trips around the Earth

  24. Regional Activity Cluster What if more people who worked here lived here? WV “More Households” Scenario • Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth • Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters” Balt. VA Increase household growth by 200,000

  25. Under this scenario, parts of Tysons Corner would have three times more housing… With densities like this…

  26. How would 2030 travel conditions change? Compared to baseline forecasts for 2030 “Higher Households” Scenario Transit Trips Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Capita Severe AM Peak Period Congestion

  27. Local impacts would be even bigger, in many places. The number of automobile trips to Tysons Corner would decrease 20 percent under the Higher Households Scenario. That’s roughly 8,000 fewer trips per day… Nearly enough drivers to fill half the seats in the MCI Center.

  28. Additional scenarios under study will look at changing bothland useANDtransportation.

  29. What if more people lived near transit, and there was more transit? “Transit Oriented Development” Plus More Transit • Locate job and household growth around transit • Expand Metrorail, commuter rail, bus rapid transit and light rail

  30. “Transit Oriented Development” Plus More TransitNorthern Virginia Elements • This scenario includes Rail to Centreville • It also includes VRE to Haymarket and to Fauquier County

  31. What if we developed a network of high occupancy/toll (HOT) lanes?

  32. What do the scenarios tell us? • Moving people closer to jobs: Increases transit use Decreases driving and congestion • At least two ways to move people closer to jobs have dramatic impacts: • Increasing household growth in the region • Transit-oriented development

  33. For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board: (202) 962-3200 TPBPublicComment@mwcog.org www.mwcog.org/transportation

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