Presentation Transcript

1. EURELECTRIC Conference, Brussels, 12.3.2014 European action in global context Karsten Neuhoff William Acworth, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Susanne Dröge, Oliver Sartor, MisatoSato, Stefan Schleicher, Anne Schopp
2. European action in global context A leading group of countries advances energy & climate policies … … and progresses in modernizing energy provision and use. Europe should not fall behind this group …. … and will thus enhance rather than risk its competitiveness.
3. 1-1 A leading group of countries defines energy efficiency targets and policiesExample: Targets for vehicle fuel efficiency by 2020 (litres per 100km) DIW Berlin Calculations based on ICCT, 2013.
4. 1-2 A leading group of countries facilitates investments in renewable energy Example: Feed-in tariffs DIW Berlin Calculations based on REN 21, 2013.
5. 1-3 A leading group of countries and regions prices carbonExample: Emission trading and carbon taxes schemes (Euros/tonne CO2) DIW Berlin Calculations based on Ecofys, 2013; Sopher, P., Mansell, A., 2013; OECD, 2013; Jotzo, F. et al., 2013; Rudolph, S., Kawatsu, T., 2012; Ptak, M., 2010.
6. 2-1 A leading group of countries is modernizing energy provision and useExample: Energy consumption above benchmark for cement clinker (2011) Cement production is particularly efficient in some Asian countries. DIW Berlin Calculations based on Cement Sustainability Initiative – GNR database.
7. 2-2 A leading group of countries is modernizing energy provision and use Example: Registrations of electric vehicles (2012) USA and Japan currently have the largest market for electric vehicles. DIW Berlin Calculations based on EVI, 2013.
8. 2-3 A leading group of countries is modernizing energy provision and useExample: Annual construction of wind power 2009-2012. In 2012 70% of wind deployment was outside of Europe. DIW Berlin Calculations based on REN 21, 2013.
9. 2-4 A leading group of countries is modernizing energy provision and use Example: Annual construction of photovoltaic 2009-2013. In 2013 70% of solar deployment was outside of Europe. Source: Neuhoff et al. (2014): Staying with the Leaders: Europe’s path to a low carbon economy. www.climatestrategies.org. DIW Berlin Calculations based on REN 21, 2013; EPIA, 2014; Clean Energy Regulator, 2014.
10. 2-5 A leading group of countries is modernizing energy provision and use Example: Energy intensity and average energy prices 1990-2005. Countries with higher energy prices are more energy efficient. Source: Grubb M., Hourcade J.C., Neuhoff K, 2014, Planetary Economics, Energy, Climate Change and the three domains of sustainable development, Routledge, London. (on IEA; EU KLEMS)
11. 2-6 A leading group of countries is modernizing energy provision and use Detail: Energy intensity of the Polish industry in comparison to the EU Polish industry has significantly improved its energy intensity. DIW Berlin Calculations based on Sartor, O., Spencer, T., 2013.
12. 3-1 Enhancing Energy self-sufficiencyShare of domestic energy in total primary energy supply Europe is among the least energy self-sufficient regions globally. Source: DIW Berlin Calculations based on IEA, 2012.
13. 3-2 Securing a long-term economic energy supply & JobsComparison of European fossil fuel bill and capital costs for renewables By 2013, annualised capital costs for renewable generation to replace fossil fuels have declined to a level of the fossil fuel expenditures Illustration excluding system cost! DIW Berlin Calculations based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy; Energy Statistics for the EU-27; Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e. V.; IEA; European Wind Energy Association.
14. 3-3 Increasing the innovation capacity of Europe Illustration: Patent registration for green technologies Next to the EU, Japan has registered many patents for green technologies Source: LSE calculations based on European Patent Office data.
15. 3-4 Maintain Europe’s credibility in international climate protection Necessary emission reductions to achieve the 2°C target. To achieve the 2°C target emissions will need to steadily decline Source: Rogelj et al, 2011.
16. 3-5 Maintain Europe’s credibility in international climate protection Per capita greenhouse gas emissions of larger European countries (2011) . Source: EEA, 2013.
17. 4-1 Discussion needs to differ between very energy intensive and other activities Illustration: Energy cost as share of turnover by energy carrier Sectors with energy costs above 6% account for less than 2% of German GVA. Source: DIW calculations basd on Destatis.
18. 4-2 Energy prices no explanatory variable for competitiveness of countries Illustration: Global Competitiveness Index of World Economic Forum On average manufacturing only spends 2.2% of revenue on energy.* For most (not all) industry limited importance for locational choices. DIW Berlin Calculations based on Schwab, K., Sala-i-Martín, X., 2013. * Basd on German data
19. 4-3 Prices for very energy intensive users mainly determined by regional resource Example: International coal prices, 2000 - 2012 Due to constraint transport capacity coal prices within the US currently lower than in other parts of the world. Source: Neuhoff et al. (2014): Staying with the Leaders: Europe’s path to a low carbon economy. www.climatestrategies.org. DIW Berlin Calculations based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2013; Economist Intelligence Unit.
20. 4-4 Prices for very energy intensive users mainly determined by regional resourceExample: International gas prices, 2000 - 2018 US has unique scale and accessibility of shale gas resources. For Europe, BP estimates that by 2035, shale gas will make up only 6% of gas consumption. DIW Berlin Calculations based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2013; Economist Intelligence Unit.
21. 4-5 Prices for very energy intensive users mainly determined by regional resource Example: Wholesale electricity prices, 2004 to 2014 Statistical offices only publish prices for consumption bellow 150 GWh. Gap of recent years to US East- and West Coast prices is closing. DIW Berlin Calculations based on EEX Spot; APX Power; UK Spot Base Load Index; OMEL-Elec. Spain Baseload; California ISO (SP15); PJM West Hub.
22. European action in global context A leading group of countries has policies on EE, RE and CO2 Theymake rapid progress – 70% of wind & solar outside EU Differ in discussion: energy intensive and other activities Average manufacturing spends 2.2% of revenue on energy Issue only for energy intensive – prices driven by resource base If Europe stays in leadinggroupitcan Enhance Energy self-sufficiency Secure a long-term economic energy supply & Jobs Increase the innovation capacity of Europe Maintain Europe’s credibility in international climate protection 5