VCCJA Baseline Recidivism Study

1. VCCJA Baseline Recidivism Study Fred Cheesman, Ph.D. Tara Kunkel, MSW The National Center for State Courts August 16, 2013

2. Purpose of the Study • To complete a baseline outcome evaluation of all Community Corrections probationers who completed supervision in FY04.

3. Key Questions for the Baseline Study • What was the demographic profile of probationers who completed Community Corrections supervision in FY04? • Did the probationers being supervised in FY04 by the 20 sites that would become the EBP sites differ demographically from the probationers supervised in the non-EBP sites in a statistically meaningful way? • What was the average length of supervision in FY04? • By offense category and offense level, what were the placement charges for the FY04 completers? • What was the average number of office contacts per probationer for the FY04 completers?

4. Key Questions for the Baseline Study • What services were local probationers ordered to complete in FY04? • What were the case closure types for local probationers whose cases were closed in FY04? If unsuccessful, why? • What percentage of FY04 local probation completers were re-arrested or received a new conviction while under supervision? • What percentage of FY04 local probation completers were re-arrested or received a new conviction post-program three years from exit date?

5. Key Questions for the Baseline Study • What types of new offenses were committed by local probationers after exiting in FY04? • What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would complete local probation supervision successfully in FY04? • What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would be convicted of a new crime post-program in FY04?

6. Sample Size Approximately 33,655 probationers in the total sample (# of defendants whose cases were closed in FY04) For the recidivism analysis a smaller group was studied 4,705 probationers

7. Baseline Question 1 • What was the demographic profile of probationers who completed Community Corrections supervision in FY04?

8. Age of FY04 Case Closures Average age = 30 years old N = 29,072

9. Race of FY04 Case Closures N = 33,655

10. Marital Status of FY04 Case Closures N = 33,555

11. Last Grade Completed – FY04 Case Closures N = 33,518

12. Prior Convictions – FY04 Case Closures

13. Average # of Prior Convictions - FY04 Case Closures

14. Baseline Question 2 • Did probationers being supervised in FY04 by what would become the 20 EBP sites differ demographically from probationers being supervised by the non-EBP sites?

15. Baseline Question #2 There were no statistically significant differences in the demographics between the EBP sites and the non-EBP sites in the FY04 sample.

16. Baseline Question 3 • What was the average length of supervision for probationers who completed supervision in FY04?

17. Baseline Question 3 • Average length of supervision for the entire sample: 8.6 months • Average length of supervision for a successful probationer: 8.2 months • Average length of supervision for an unsuccessful probationer: 9.4 months

18. Baseline Question 4 • By offense category and offense level, what were the placement charges for the FY04 probation completers?

19. Placement Type by Offense Level N = 28,969 N = 2,184

20. Placement Offenses - Misdemeanors N = 8,327 N = 5,121 N = 7,564 N = 3,263 N =1,707 N =110 N = 2,878

21. Placement Offenses - Felonies N = 352 N = 919 N = 225 N = 4 N = 10 N = 95

22. Baseline Question 5 • What was the average number of office contacts per probationer for the FY04 completers?

23. Baseline Question 5 • Average number of office contacts for successful completers: 8.9 contacts • Average number of office contacts for unsuccessful completers: 10.6 contacts • NOTE: Data quality was questionable with some sites not documenting this information in FY04.

24. Baseline Question 6 • What services were probationers ordered to complete in FY04?

25. Court-Ordered Conditions in FY04

26. Baseline Question 7 • What were the case closure types for local probationers whose cases were closed in FY04? If unsuccessful, why?

27. Case Closure by Type

28. Reason for Unsuccessful Closures

29. Baseline Question 8 • What percentage of FY04 probationer completers were re-arrested and/or had a new conviction while under supervision (by program completion type)?

30. Re-Arrest and New Convictions In-Program

31. Baseline Question 9 • What percentage of probationers were re-arrested and/or had a new conviction post-program three years from exit (by program completion type?

32. Re-Arrests and New Convictions Post-Exit Arrest Differences between the successful and unsuccessful completers all measures are significant at ..001 level.

33. Baseline Question 10 • What types of new offenses were committed by local probationers post-program in FY04?

34. Statewide Total Estimated Offense Types of New Convictions Within 3 Years

35. Number of New Offenses within 3 Years • Average of 2.18 misdemeanor arrests and 1.81 convictions within three years among all recidivists • Average of 1.76 felony arrests and .73 felony convictions within three years among all recidivists

36. Recidivism Rates by Placement Charge

37. Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Person Offenders

38. Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Property Offenders

39. Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Drug Offenders

40. Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Public Order Offenders

41. Statewide Estimated Offense Types for New Convictions within Three Years for Technical Offenders

42. Baseline Question 11 • What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would successfully complete supervision in FY04?

43. Methodology • Multivariate analyses were conducted to provide valid answers to Baseline Questions 11 and 12. • Because Type of Completion and Recidivism are complex phenomenon, any number of factors could explain variation in these two variables (e.g., age, race, sex). • To determine each of these factors’ unique contribution to explaining such variation, it is necessary to simultaneously control for the influence of all the other explanatory factors. • Multivariate analysis is the vehicle to ascertain each explanatory factor’s unique contribution to explaining variation in each of the two variables, controlling for the influence of all the other explanatory variables.

44. Predictors of successful completion • African Americans were 31% less likely to successfully complete than Caucasians. • Probationers placed on a felony-level charge are 53% less likely to successfully complete than those placed on a misdemeanor charge. • Probationers with a prior misdemeanor conviction at placement are 42% less likely to successfully complete than those with none. • Probationers with a prior felony conviction at placement are 38% less likely to successfully complete than those with none. • Every year of education beyond the average increases the odds of successfully completing by 6%. Only includes statistically significant predictors

45. Baseline Question 12 • What, if anything, predicted whether a probationer would reoffend (as measured by a new conviction within three years) post-program in FY04?

46. Predictors of Recidivism • Women are 35% less likely to have a new conviction in three years then men. • African Americans are 43% more likely to have a new conviction than Caucasians. • Probationers with prior misdemeanor convictions at placement are 117% more likely to have a new conviction than those without prior misdemeanor convictions. • Probations with a prior felony conviction at placement are 39% more likely to have a new conviction than probationers without a prior felony conviction. • Probationers who successfully complete probation are 47% less likely to have a new conviction.

47. Other Items of Note – not for the report! • 18 programs in FY04 showed a statistical difference in the recidivism rates of probationers who successfully completed versus unsuccessful completers.

48. Next Steps • Each program will receive program-specific data in the next two weeks.

49. Next Steps • Your site specific data will include: • Age, race, gender, marital status and educational breakdown of your sample • Length of supervision and # of office visits for your sample • Breakdown of closure type for your sample • Reason for unsuccessful closures in your sample • Reconviction rates for your sample

50. Next Steps • A note about your recidivism rates: