IRan Education & Research NETwork (IRENET) Madsg

1. IRan Education & Research NETwork (IRENET) Madsg.com

2. Waltz’s Neorealism The argument in favor

3. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Structural Realism Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Subsidiary hypotheses Facts and Assumptions • Assumptions need not be true; what is important is whether they are useful • Useful assumptions lead to powerful theories: • Parsimonious • Testable • The test of structural realism is whether it generates hypotheses that can be supported by evidence PSC272

4. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Structural Realism Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Subsidiary hypotheses Waltz in Review • Social systems impose constraints; all actors are compelled to behave similarly • Analogy to a competitive market • The international system is anarchic • Self-help • Defensive balancing • The number of important states and the distribution of power among them determines the constraints PSC272

5. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Structural Realism Subsidiary hypotheses Balance of Power • Balances form recurrently • Balancing vs. Bandwagoning: States prefer to join the weaker of two coalitions • If one coalition weakens, the opposing one loosens • Anticipated balancing leads to restraint PSC272

6. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Russia Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Structural Realism Subsidiary hypotheses BoP as a Reaction to a Threat: Napoleon, 1802-1815 Major Powers: FRA, UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS After French Revolution (1789), Napoleon Bonaparte rises to power. -- Consul (1802) -- Emperor of France (1804) Continues military campaigns to build empire and feed war machine. -- Poses major threat to Europe UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS form “coalitions” against FRA -- Napoleon defeated (1814) -- Congress of Vienna (1814) -- Napoleon returns (1815) -- Waterloo (1815) PSC272

7. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Russia Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Structural Realism Subsidiary hypotheses BoP as a Peaceful Equilibrium: Concert of Europe, 1815-1848 After Napoleonic Wars, Congress of Vienna continues (1815) Defeated France let back into “club” Quadruple Alliance: Austria, Britain, Prussia, Russia Congresses held to attempt to resolve issues. Buffer states/territory traded. PSC272

8. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Structural Realism Subsidiary hypotheses Assessing Balance of Power Hypotheses • Balances form recurrently • Balancing vs. Bandwagoning: States prefer to join the weaker of two coalitions • If one coalition weakens, the opposing one loosens • Anticipated balancing leads to restraint PSC272

9. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Subsidiary hypotheses Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Structural Realism Subsidiary Hypotheses • Socialization • States emulate successful competitors • Military advances: • Agincourt • French Revolution and mass mobilization • German general staff model • Organization: • Market economy • Nonconformist states gradually adapt • Bolshevik Russia PSC272

10. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Subsidiary hypotheses Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Structural Realism Subsidiary Hypotheses • Interdependence • Relative gains impede cooperation • Interdependence increases probability of war • Economic vulnerability leads to imperialism PSC272

11. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Structural Realism Balance of Power Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Subsidiary hypotheses Bipolarity vs Multipolarity 1792 1815 1854 1866 1870 1914 1939 WW I WW II Napoleonic Wars Crimean War Franco-Prussian War (“peaceful”) Concert of Europe Austro-Prussian War Multipolar loose, shifting alliances, Britain as balancer four or five Great Powers 1945 1990 Cold War—or “Long Peace” ? Bipolar (two Great Powers, tight blocs) PSC272

12. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Balance of Power Structural Realism Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Subsidiary hypotheses Bipolarity vs Multipolarity • Bipolarity is more “stable.” Why? • Multipolar balancing breaks down because of uncertainty States can maximize/accrue power in two ways: Bipolar  internal balancing Cold War Multipolar  external balancing 19th Century Europe PSC272

13. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Balance of Power Structural Realism Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Subsidiary hypotheses Bipolarity vs Multipolarity • Internal balancing is more reliable • External balancing can give rise to miscalculations that lead to general war • Large influence of small allies • Deterrence fails because there is an incentive to defect from commitments • As numbers grow, strategic complexity grows geometrically • Uncertainty is the leading cause of war PSC272

14. Allied Powers Central Powers • France • Austria-Hungary • Great Britain • Germany • Russia Structural Theories: WWI Multipolar System • Abandoning an ally invites one’s own destruction • In a moment of crisis, the weaker or more adventurous party (Austria) is likely to determine its side’s policy • Its partners (Germany) can afford neither to let the weaker member be defeated nor to advertise their disunity by failing to back a venture even while deploring its risks

15. Allied Powers Central Powers • France • Austria-Hungary • Great Britain • Germany • Russia Structural Theories: WWI Balance of Power • The Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance were approximately balanced • The defeat of any great power would give the opposing coalition a decisive advantage in the overall European balance of power • Britain entered the war to prevent Germany from upsetting the balance of power on the continent

16. Allied Powers Central Powers • France • Austria-Hungary • Great Britain • Germany • Russia Structural Theories: WWI Alliance System • The establishment of the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance divided the European powers into two camps • While seen as a form of self-protection, the alliances also had the potential to escalate small crises into major wars • When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, this brought Serbia’s ally Russia into the war, which brought Germany, France, and Britain into the war

17. N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Balance of Power Structural Realism Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Subsidiary hypotheses Assessing hypotheses about multipolarity in WWI External balancing can give rise to miscalculations that lead to general war • Large influence of small allies • Deterrence fails because there is an incentive to defect from commitments Admittedly, an unfair test PSC272

18. Strengths of Structural Realism • Parsimony • Focus on systemic effects • Power is defined as capabilities (non-tautological) • Explanatory power is in the constraints, not in the preferences • Collective action • Probabilistic predictions