Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the WFD in Ireland

1. Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the WFD in Ireland Dr Ahmed Nasr Centre for Water Resources Research – UCD Dublin Environmental Research Centre – Centre Of Excellence, EPA Dr Michael Bruen Centre for Water Resources Research – UCD Dublin

2. Outline of presentation • Response to the WFD in Ireland • Main Water Quality Issues in Ireland • Precursor Pilot Projects • WINCOMS project

3. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) BEFORE THE WFD • Irish legislation provided for water quality planning on an integrated basis since 1977. • Ireland started to promote a catchment-based, national strategy to combat eutrophication in rivers and lakes in 1997.   • Guidelines for the establishment of river basin management systems were published in 2000 (before the ratification of the WFD).

4. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) DETERMINATION OF THE RBDs • 5 national River Basin Districts were determined by the natural grouping of hydrometric areas.    • 3 International River Basin Districts between The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland was determined on the basis of: • Substantial areas in each jurisdiction lie within cross-border river basins. • The waters from substantial areas of each jurisdiction flow into or through the other jurisdiction. • In relation to rivers and lakes, the whole island of Ireland is designated as a single eco-region. • All coastal and transitional waters surrounding the island of Ireland are also included in one eco-region.

5. NORTH WESTERN IRBD NORTH EASTERN RBD WESTERN RBD NEAGH BANN IRBD SHANNON IRBD EASTERN RBD SOUTH WESTERN RBD Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) THE RBDs AND IRBDs IN IRELAND SOUTH EASTERN RBD

6. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) RBDs Characteristics

7. Local Authority River Basin Management Group River Basin Co-ordinator Steering Committee Contracted Company or Organisation of the River Basin Management Project Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE • The main activities for the implementation of the WFD take place in the context of River Basin Management Projects led by local authorities and implemented by a contractor.

8. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) BACKGROUND ON WQ IN IRELAND • Rivers: • The more densely populated and intensively farmed regions are the most polluted; • Agriculture is suspected as being the principle pollution with sewage account for the rest of pollution instances. • Lakes: • The sources of nutrients for lakes, ascribed a eutrophic or hypertrophic status, is thought to be diffuse discharges of agriculture origin; • Discharges from municipal and industrial waste treatment are partly or wholly responsible for the unsatisfactory water quality condition of the other lakes. • Groundwater: • High ammonia concentrations are attributed to organic waste source; • No wide spread nitrate pollution was found in particular aquifer despite the occurrence of some elevated values; • High phosphate levels, which are sufficient to contribute to eutrophication of rivers and lakes, have been recorded.

9. % Surveyed channel length % Surveyed channel length 1971 1971 1981 1981 1986 1986 1990 1990 1994 1994 1997 1997 2000 2000 Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) BACKGROUND ON WQ IN IRELAND: RIVERS Long term trends: Percentage of channel length in four Biological Classes

12. % Surveyed surface areas of lakes Oligotrophic Mesotrophic slightly Eutrophic Hypertrophic moderately Eutrophic highly Eutrophic Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) BACKGROUND ON WQ IN IRELAND: LAKES Long term trends: Percentage of surface area of lakes under six Trophic Categories

13. % Surveyed GW monitoring stations mg l NO3 Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) BACKGROUND ON WQ IN IRELAND: GROUNDWATER Comparisons of the percentage of GW monitoring stations with mean concentrations of Nitrate in the ranges indicated

14. ERBD SWRBD SERBD WRBD SHIRBD NWIRBD NBANIRBD Abstractions pressures Diffuse pollution pressures Point source pollution pressures Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) PRESSURES AT THE RBDS: GROUNDWATER

15. ERBD SWRBD SERBD WRBD SHIRBD NWIRBD NBANIRBD Abstractions pressures Diffuse pollution pressures Point source pollution pressures Morphology pressures Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) PRESSURES AT THE RBDS: RIVERS

16. ERBD SWRBD SERBD WRBD SHIRBD NWIRBD NBANIRBD Abstractions pressures Diffuse pollution pressures Point source pollution pressures Morphology pressures Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) PRESSURES AT THE RBDS: LAKES

17. ERBD SERBD WRBD SHIRBD SWRBD NWIRBD NBANIRBD Abstractions pressures Pollution impacts Morphology pressures Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) PRESSURES AT THE RBDS: TRANSITIONAL WATER

19. ERBD SWRBD SERBD SHIRBD WRBD NWIRBD NBANIRBD Pollution impacts Morphology pressures Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) PRESSURES AT THE RBDs: COASTAL WATER

20. Pilot Studies • Lough Derg, Ree Project. • Three Rivers Project

23. Lough Derg, Ree Project The purpose of the consultations was to ensure that local elected representatives were kept informed of the project and its objectives and afforded direct opportunity to influence its development

24. Direct Consultations with • Angling Interest Groups • Fisheries Boards • Chambers of Commerce • Farming (IFA, ICMSA, TEAGASC, Dept. of Agric., Fertililser Assoc.) • Conservation and Special Interest groups • OPW • Heritage Council • Irish Detergent Assoc.

25. Methods • Media (newspapers, radio, TV) • Reports, Brochures and pamphlets • Direct contact with affected landowners • Conferences, Seminars, Workshops, both project and external, to the Public and to specialist groups.

28. Public Awareness Campaigns • General Public, • Media, • Educational, • Specialised groups(Farming , Fishing, Community groups, Septic tank communities) • Project WWW site

29. EPA Role • Recognised need for research in • Modelling - much work done, especially on diffuse pollution modelling • Implementation and decision support methods --> WINCOMS project

30. Pre-WFD in Ireland • Formal Planning Permission • EPA licencing • Public Presentation of proposed project with fixed period for observations.

31. Consequences • Adversarial system • Generally, only minor modifications made to final project after publication - or cancellation of project • Legal challenges ( including to EU)

32. Historical Approach

33. Future Direction

34. WINCOMS Project - objective - to combine the following:- • Multi-criteria decision support tools • Technical Modelling expertise • Stake holders preferences • Feedback (on many levels)

35. WINCOMS Project - people • Engineers • Scientists • Sociologists • Communication specialists • RBD Managers • Invited experts

36. Multi-criteria decision support methods - criteria • Capable of dealing with large numbers of criteria. • Capable of dealing with qualitative, as well as quantitative criteria. • Widely accepted with clear and robust logic

37. Methods ruled out • Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) Although most rigourous, there is some difficulty in dealing with large numbers of criteria

38. Methods ruled in - 1 • Concordance methods (e.g. ELECTRE, MACBETH ) and related developments e.g. NAIADE and its successors. We have already applied concordance methods to problems of highway route selection, sewage treatment works location etc. where public consultation was a strong element

39. Methods ruled in - 2 • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) (e.g. Expert Choice etc.)

40. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) Implementation factors for the design of DSS for the RBDs • Easy integration of available mathematical models; • Multi-criteria analysis approach for evaluating alternatives; • Transparent and logical methods for ranking alternatives; • An accessible web-based interface allowing the participation of stakeholders; • Self-updating mechanism in order to accept new information and update the relevant database(s).

41. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) TECHNOLOGIES AVAILABLE FOR USE IN THE DSS FOR THE RBDs • Well-established GIS database; • Web-based tool allowing of public consultation; • Web-site for each RBD; • Development of a number of state-of-the-art mathematical models; • Monitored data with the most advanced instruments.

42. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) Progress in Public awareness and participation in decision making process. • Irish people now seem more aware of and concerned with environmental issues than they were a decade ago. • According to the EPA, Irish people priorities the environmental problems as follows: • Nuclear activities; • Tap water contamination; • Chemical products; • Air and river pollution.

43. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) HYDROMETRIC AREAS IN IRELAND

44. Lough Swilly Basin Lough Neagh Basin Foyle River Basin Lough Melvin Basin Newry River Basin Erne River Basin Fane River Basin Shannon Basin Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) RIVER BASINS IN THE IRBDs

45. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) LARGEST PRESSURES IN EACH RBD A: Abstraction; DP: diffuse pollution; M: Morphology; PI: pollution impact; PSP: point source pollution

46. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) SCHEDULE OF THE WFD IMPLEMENTATION IN IRELAND

47. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) CURRENT CHALLENGES FOR THE RBDS • Key data deficiencies including: • Ecological data in most surface waters; • Groundwater level and chemical data in most aquifers; • All data in the upstreams parts of the catchments; • Priority and Hazardous Substances.    • Organisational issues such as: • Development of national approach to Programme of Measures; • Development of national approach to information management and Programme of Measure decision-making; • Coordination between local authorities being with more than one RBDs.

48. Nasr and Bruen, Multi-criteria and Decision Support Systems in support of the Water Framework Directive in Ireland, 3rd Harmoni-CA Forum & Conference - (5-7 April 2006, Osnabrück) IMPORTANCE OF USING DSS IN THE RBDs • Decisions on policy and measures : • Use of an unbiased, independent and logical methodology; • Taking account of all stakeholders concerns, both quantifiable and non-quantifiable, in a transparent manner. • The environmental management cycle is best described by the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DSPIR) framework an this requires: • Existence of mathematical models; • Existence of uncertainty analysis tools. • Design of data monitoring programme: • Filling the gaps identified in the RBDs characterisation phase; • Cost-effective justifiable.