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Outline of Presentation

FFESC Project No. 003 Integrating Climate Change Adaptation Strategies with Sustainability and Socioe c onomic Objectives for the Quesnel Timber Supply Area Ann Chan-McLeod UBC Presentation at QMC Workshop May 4, 2011. Outline of Presentation. Study Overview

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Outline of Presentation

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  1. FFESC Project No. 003Integrating Climate Change Adaptation Strategies with Sustainability and Socioeconomic Objectives for the Quesnel Timber Supply AreaAnn Chan-McLeodUBCPresentation at QMC WorkshopMay 4, 2011

  2. Outline of Presentation • Study Overview • Progress Update on Model Development • Interim Results • TACA modeling • BEC projections • Discussion • Model Assumptions • Lumber Value

  3. Study Objective • Develop a decision support tool that would facilitate identification of a target future landscape for the Quesnel TSA that would reduce long-term vulnerability to climate change while factoring in short and mid-term sustainability and socioeconomic objectives. • The tool depicts the direct and indirect effects of projected climate change scenarios on wildlife and socioeconomic parameters over 10, 50, and 80 year horizons for the Quesnel TSA, and evaluates the effects of alternative management scenarios on the outcome.

  4. Study Area

  5. Study SpeciesSelection Criteria • Habitat specialist • Empirical data must be available for all of the following: • Direct effects of climate as observed from Interior BC • Response to mountain pine beetle epidemic • Response to forest and habitat attributes • Response to harvesting and salvage logging • Independent data for testing

  6. Study SpeciesCandidates • Swainson’s Thrush (Mixed Deciduous Forests) • Red-breasted Nuthatch (Mature Forests, Resident) • Hammond’s Flycatcher (Mature Forests, Migrant) • American Robin (Mature/Young Forests, Early Migrant) • Chipping Sparrow (Open Habitats, Early Sere) • Dusky Flycatcher (Open Conifer with Shrubs)

  7. MethodsDraft Bayesian Model - SWTH

  8. MethodsGeneral Circulation Models (GCMs) • General Circulation Models (GCMs) replicate the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere and in the ocean, in order to project future climates. • In this study, the 7 GCMs that were used to evaluate climate change effects are from the 4th Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES4) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. • Uncertainty in climate projections arise from modeled assumptions in atmospheric and oceanic processes, and also from assumptions in the political, social, and cultural conditions that drive emission levels.

  9. MethodsChoosing Climate Change Scenarios Spittlehouse and MurdockJune2010

  10. MethodsStudy GCMs Adapted from Spittlehouse and MurdockJune2010

  11. Methods BEC Projections Observed Predicted 1961 –1990

  12. MethodsTACA Modeling • Tree and Climate Assessment (TACA) tool developed by Nitschke and Innes (2008) for modeling ecosystem response to climate change • Input variables include climatic as well as edaphic parameters (e.g., soil moisture regime, soil texture, rooting depth, available water holding capacity, percolation rate) • Modeled at the level of the BEC variant • Edaphic parameters based on Craig DeLong’s PSP values (2010, pers. comm.)

  13. MethodsTACA Input into Bayesian Model AET/PET indicates probability of tree mortality (DeLong, pers. com.) • Direct mortality due to drought • Indirect mortality due to disturbance agent

  14. MethodsSilvicultural Practice

  15. Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (Current)

  16. Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2020)

  17. Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2050)

  18. Interim ResultsLodgepole Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2080)

  19. Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (Current)

  20. Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2020)

  21. Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2050)

  22. Interim ResultsDouglas Fir Drought MortalityVery Hot Scenario (2080)

  23. Interim ResultsCurrent BEC

  24. Interim ResultsSmallest Change Scenario2020

  25. Interim ResultsSmallest Change Scenario2050

  26. Interim ResultsSmallest Change Scenario2080

  27. Interim ResultsSmallest Change ScenarioBEC (% of study area)

  28. Interim ResultsCurrent BEC

  29. Interim ResultsVery Hot Scenario2020

  30. Interim ResultsVery Hot Scenario2050

  31. Interim ResultsVery Hot Scenario2080

  32. Interim ResultsVery Hot ScenarioBEC (% of study area)

  33. DiscussionModel Assumptions • Study area is 70% of the area of the TSA. • AAC is 70% of 4 million m3 • Maximum harvest of non-pine conifer = 70% of 650,000 m3 • Rotation Age: 80 years for pine; 120 years for non-pine conifers • Stand Eligibility for Salvage Harvest: 70% pine • Shelf life of MPB infested = 20 years: • Post-MPB regeneration: +15 years (i.e. 15 year old regen under canopy) • Biodiversity guidelines (wildlife tree patch): • < 50 ha – 10% • 50 – 250 ha – 12..5% • 250 ha – 20% • Log volume (Prognosis output from I. Moss) is for 5-year increments starting in 2008. This study uses 2008 data for 2010.

  34. DiscussionLumber Value Phil Winkle, 2005

  35. Project Participants Principal Investigator Ann Chan-McLeod, UBC Team Members Arnold Moy, UBC Tongli Wang, UBC Emina Krcmar, UBC Consultants and Contributors Phil Winkle, QMC Ian Moss, Tesera Systems Ron Meister, Forestmeister Services Craig DeLong, BCMOF

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