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Detecting the Online Threat : Using hyperlink analysis and web cartography

Detecting the Online Threat : Using hyperlink analysis and web cartography. 16th National Metropolis Conference. Benjamin Ducol Ph.D candidate in Political Science ( Université Laval) and Research Assistant Canada Research Chair on Conflicts and Terrorism. March 15th 2014. Introduction.

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Detecting the Online Threat : Using hyperlink analysis and web cartography

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  1. Detecting the Online Threat :Using hyperlink analysis and web cartography 16th National Metropolis Conference Benjamin Ducol Ph.D candidate in Political Science (Université Laval) and Research Assistant Canada Research Chair on Conflicts and Terrorism March 15th 2014

  2. Introduction If the Web can be considered as ‘milieu’ for radicalization, then we need to explore : • What kind of contents and ideas are being circulated online and how they might influence radicalization ? • How are they being circulated on the Web ? • How do they relate to each other in the cyberspace ?

  3. Litterature and current knowledge • Most of empirical studies are focusing on the contents of extremist websites / webpages ; • Ex : Kimmage 2008 ; Bowman-Grieve 2009 ; Brachman 2010 ; Mozes & Weimann 2010 • Few empirical studies are looking at the structural patterns of extremist presence online ; • Ex : Reid and Chen 2007 ; Chen, Chung, Qin, Reid, Sageman and Weimann 2008 ; Chen 2011 ; Klausen, Barbieri, Reichlin-Melnick, and Zelin 2012. • Very difficult to gauge precisely the extent of extremist presence online ;

  4. Digital Methods Web Mapping and Web Cartography Online controversies Ex: French HADOPI law Virtual spaces Ex : Arabic blogosphere

  5. Digital Methods • Webometrics studies (Almind et Ingwersen 1997) : • « a set of quantitative and qualitative techniques for tracking and evaluating the impact of web sites and online ideas » : • Web mention analysis ; • Sentiment analysis ; • Link and hyperlink analysis ; • …

  6. Digital Methods • Hyperlink analysis : Why ? • It reveals information about popularity (centrality) on the Web ; • It reveals information about pattern of linkage (connectivity) on the Web; « Hyperlinks are the glue of these online communities, forming digital footprints of the way individuals make connections. Through a simple selection to include, exclude or just follow a link in our daily online interactions, we passively telegraph the way we see the world, what is important to us, to what degree and why » (Schulman 2008: 147) ; « Hyperlink is perhaps the most significant mechanism of online gatekeeping » (Napoli 2008 : 18).

  7. Digital Methods Hyperlink analysis : How ? • 3 methodological steps : • Collecting hyperlinks or URLs (Navicrawler) • URLs categorization (Navicrawler) • Visualization – Graph/Mapping (Gephi)

  8. Digital Methods Collecting URLs and categorization Navicrawler

  9. Digital Methods Collecting URLs and categorization

  10. Digital Methods Vizualization

  11. French-speaking jihadisphere Introduction • 4200 websites explored ; • 69 websites included in the final corpus ;

  12. French-speaking jihadisphere • Centralized-network ; • « Ansar al-Haqq » still the most important website of the French speaking jihadisphere ; • Fluidity between jihadi and salafi-oriented websites.

  13. 2800 websites explored ; • 30 websites included in the final corpus ; • No structured-network

  14. Voice(s) of the Caucasus emirate • 4329 websites explored ; • 173 websites included in the final corpus ;

  15. Voice(s) of the Caucasus emirate

  16. Discussion • Promises : • Overall better understanding of the extremist presence online ; • Clarifying the patterns of cross-linkage between extremist websites (ideological proximity) ; • Evaluation of the centrality of webpages compared to others (e-reputation) ;

  17. Discussion • Limits : • Not audience-centric method => need to be complemented with more audience measurement; • Only gives you the picture of « what’s going on online », but doesn't necessarily echo the real world • Growing substitution of social network pages instead of static websites.

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