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3 rd Annual Florida College Access and Success Summit Tampa, Florida October 16, 2014

Tougher Choices. Jim Dewey. 3 rd Annual Florida College Access and Success Summit Tampa, Florida October 16, 2014. 1980s Apparent Potential F ading. By mid 1980s Income per capita ≈ US K-12 $/student near US Universities rising Future with high-skill jobs seemed in reach

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3 rd Annual Florida College Access and Success Summit Tampa, Florida October 16, 2014

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  1. Tougher Choices Jim Dewey 3rd Annual Florida College Access and Success Summit Tampa, Florida October 16, 2014

  2. 1980s Apparent Potential Fading • By mid 1980s • Income per capita ≈ US • K-12 $/student near US • Universities rising • Future with high-skill jobs seemed in reach • Falling income per capita in the 1990s and 2000s • fluctuation around parity or • decline masked by the housing bubble? Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  3. Relative productivity falling Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  4. Tougher Choices (2014)downward trend extremely hard to change • Low skill starting point plus feedback effects • Skilled jobs go to cities with lots of skilled jobs • Labor market polarization • Baby boom retirees • No room to invest at current tax rates • No support to raise tax rates • Report at collinsinstitute.fsu.edu

  5. Labor Market Polarization • Routine Jobs • Mid-skill • Replaced by automation and info tech • Non Routine Jobs • Cognitive: High-skill • Manual: Low-skill • Wage gains concentrated in advanced degrees, certain STEM fields

  6. Accounting for Florida’s Low Job Skill

  7. Growing Retiree Influence • Age 65+ in 2010 • FL 17% • US 13% • Age 65+ in FL in 2030 • 1 in 3 Adults • 2 in 5 voters • Crowd out other export industries • Change the nature of cities • Less supportive of investment? • Shift taxes to business

  8. Lagging Human Capital Investment • Prior to the recession, state funding average, tuition low • During recession, state fuinding fell sharply • 50% increase in BOTH to catch US in FY 2013 • Real K-12 teacher salaries falling, 84% of US average in FY 2014. Revenue data from State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO). Deflated using the GDP deflator from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. State appropriation recovered some in FYs 2014, 2015, but comparative data is not yet available for those years.

  9. Summary • Relative to US: income per capita ↓, output per worker ↓, high-skill job share ↓ , low-skill job share ↑ • Trend hard to change due to five mutually reinforcing factors • Low starting point plus feedback effects • Labor market polarization • Baby boom retirees • No room to invest at current tax rates • No support to raise tax rates • Florida will likely be the subtropical corner of a safe, rich country, highly specialized in retirees and tourists • There are worse things to be, but we could have been better • Maybe we still can be better, but it will cost a lot more

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