1 / 21

Executive Board meeting 2 February 2005

Executive Board meeting 2 February 2005. GDP. Growth in volume on previous quarter Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. 02 Q1 - 04 Q4. US. UK. Euro area. Japan. Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Consensus Economics and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US).

nickell
Télécharger la présentation

Executive Board meeting 2 February 2005

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Executive Board meeting2 February 2005

  2. GDP. Growth in volume on previous quarterPer cent.Seasonally adjusted.02 Q1 - 04 Q4 US UK Euro area Japan Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Consensus Economics and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US)

  3. Core CPI/HICPin the US, the euro area and the UK.Percentage change on same month previous year. Jan 01 - Dec 04 US US2) Euro area UK1) 1) RPI excl. food 2) Personal cconsumption expenditures deflator, less food and energy Source: EcoWin / National statistics

  4. Consumer price inflation in the Nordic countriesPercentage change on same month previous year. Jan 02 – Dec 04 Sweden (UND1X less energy) Sweden (UND1X) Denmark (HICP) Finland (HICP) Norway (CPI-ATE) Sources: EcoWin/SN, Statistics Sweden, EUR-OP/Eurostat and Statistics Denmark

  5. 31. January 13. December Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area and Sweden Sweden Euro area US Source: Reuters and Norges Bank

  6. Oil price Brent Blend USD per barrel.Daily figures Futures price 28 October (IR 3/04) 31. January 13. December Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  7. Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude. Daily figures. Jan 01 – Jan 05 Delivery in 1 month Delivery in 6-7 years Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

  8. CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 3/04 (broken line).12-month rise. Per cent Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  9. Movements in the krone exchange rate (I-44)Daily figures. 1 Dec 2002 – 31 Jan 2005 Stronger krone Weaker krone Source: Norges Bank

  10. 31. January 13. December Interest rate expectations in NorwayActual and expected developments in the key rate, and interest rate differential against trading partners at 13 Dec 2004 and 31 Jan 2005. 02.01.03 – 01.11.06 Key rate in Norway Interest rate differential against trading partners Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  11. Growth in retail trade turnover and the retail sales indexFrom same period previous year. February 2003 – December1) 2004 Turnover statistics Retail sales index 1) Turnover statistics up to August 2004, retail sales index up to December Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. Housing marketHouse prices (12-month rise), number of housing starts (last 12 months) and number of dwellings sold (last 12 months). Jan 99 – Jan 05 Dwellings sold, in 1000s Housing starts, in 1000s 12-month rise in house prices. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)

  13. Total debt mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2)12-month rise.Aug 01 - Dec 04 C2 households C3 mainland Norway C2 enterprises Source: Norges Bank

  14. Non-residential building startsArea (1000 m2). 3-month moving average. Jan 2000 - Oct 2004 Holiday properties Property management and commercial services Wholesale and retail trade Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Business sentiment indicator for manufacturingSeasonally adjusted diffusion index1). 1997 Q1 – 2004 Q4 1) A value of more than0 implies that the majority of industrial leaders expect a positive trend in the next quarter. Source: Statistics Norway

  16. Investment intentions survey for oil and gas production including pipeline transportEstimated and actual investment. In billions of NOK 2005 2004 2003 2002 Estimate made previous year Estimate made current year Source: Statistics Norway

  17. Number of person-hours workedFigures from LFS (monthly) and quarterly national accounts (QNA). Seasonally adjusted LFS: Number of thousand person-weeks worked at 37.5 hours per week QNA: Number of millions of person-hours worked per quarter. LFS(left-hand scale) QNA (right-hand scale) Source: Statistics Norway

  18. Sickness absencePerson-days lost due to sickness absence, both self-certified and doctor-certified, for employees aged 16-69, as a percentage of contractual person-days Agreement of intent Source: Statistics Norway

  19. Movements in the krone exchange rate compared with the interest rate differential. Jan 02 - Mar 06 Expected interest rate differential 31 January (left-hand scale) I-44(right-hand scale1)) 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the exchange rate Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  20. Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and I-444-quarter rise. Per cent. 1998 Q1 - 2004 Q4 Imported consumer goods in External Trade Statistics1) I-44 Imported consumer goods in CPI2) 1) Norges Bank's estimates: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages 2)Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  21. Interest rate increases in this business cycle 1) Estimated as a weighted average of 9 countries, where the weightings take account of the countries with a fixed exchange rate against USD and EUR.On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.15 per cent. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

More Related