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NEXT GENERATION NETWORKS ( NGN s) OR FAREWELL TO CIRCUIT SWITCHING (CAN ELEPHANTS STILL FLY?)

NEXT GENERATION NETWORKS ( NGN s) OR FAREWELL TO CIRCUIT SWITCHING (CAN ELEPHANTS STILL FLY?). LLOYD Hotel, Amsterdam. Jens Arnbak. FACULTY of EE, MATHEMATICS AND INFORMATICS. THE CLASSICAL NATIONAL PHONE NET: A HOPELESS ECONOMIC CASE … . NETWORK INVESTMENTS: TRUNK LEVEL

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NEXT GENERATION NETWORKS ( NGN s) OR FAREWELL TO CIRCUIT SWITCHING (CAN ELEPHANTS STILL FLY?)

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  1. NEXT GENERATION NETWORKS (NGN s) OR FAREWELL TO CIRCUIT SWITCHING(CAN ELEPHANTS STILL FLY?) LLOYD Hotel, Amsterdam Jens Arnbak FACULTY of EE, MATHEMATICS AND INFORMATICS

  2. THE CLASSICAL NATIONAL PHONE NET: A HOPELESS ECONOMIC CASE … NETWORK INVESTMENTS: TRUNK LEVEL • Trunk exchanges 10% • Multiplexed cables 7% • Test equipment 7% • Radio&SATCOM relays 4% LOCAL LEVEL • Local exchanges 22% • Subscriber lines49% ~1100 € per subscriber!

  3. REVENUES IN FIXED NETWORKS • During last years of monopolies in W. Europe (1995-’97), average daily use per subscriber line was ~ 12.2 minutes national & ~0.5 minute international,including business users! • Rebalancing to cost-oriented phone tariffs in EU first completed by OPTA (1998): • Standard KPN subscription fee raised by 27% • National & local minute rates reduced by 27% • USOBelBudgetwasintended to benefit small consumers (approx. 700,000 lines ~ 10% of total)

  4. MAKING INCUMBENT’S TARIFFS COST-ORIENTED (OPTA: RE-BALANCING TARIFFS IN 1998) BELBUDGET(USO, from 1998 ) Costs, €/mth. • Until 1998 • From 1998 • BELBASIS 15.70 Cheaper Dearer! 12.40 # call minutes 9.05 0

  5. BUT: TARIFF REBALANCINGWASSOFTENEDBYCOMPETITIVE PREPAID GSM OFFERS! BELBUDGET (USO, 1998 ) Costs, (€/mth) • Until 1998 • From 1998 • (•Future flat fees??) WHEN EMPTY? 15.70 BELBASIS 12.40 # call minutes Prepaid GSM (UNREGULATED) 9.05 0

  6. Effect of ONP (1998) on incumbents’ traffic, by end 2001 (McKinsey Quarterly, 2003)

  7. REGULATORY “HARSHNESS” INDEXESABN-AMRO Bank (London City), July 2002

  8. INCUMBENTS’ TRAFFIC CHANGES2004, RELATIVE TO 2003 (Source: OVUM)

  9. BT’s NGN : FUNCTIONAL NODESCMSAN: Copper Multi-Service Access NodeFMSAN: Fibre Multi-Service Access Node WDM: Wavelength Division MultiplexingPoP: Point of PresenceAll Voice (to be) supported over IP

  10. NGN: KEY DEVELOPMENT ASPECTS(Sources: BT, OECD) • Next Generation Networks can support any ICT-based application • “NG Access” provides bandwidth on (economic) demand • To save cost and time, “NG Core” networks should be based on simpler structure - lasagna instead of spaghetti - for support of a wide range of services • Regulatory intervention is most likely to occur in the event of (access) bottlenecks, as these may not be easy to duplicate.

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