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Lecture 29: The International Realignment?

Lecture 29: The International Realignment? . 30 th April 2003 (Wednesday). Structure of Lecture 29: . A NEW LECTURE, A NEW TOPIC International Systems in History International Realignment after the Cold War International Realignment after 911

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Lecture 29: The International Realignment?

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  1. Lecture 29: The International Realignment? 30th April 2003 (Wednesday)

  2. Structure of Lecture 29: • A NEW LECTURE, A NEW TOPIC • International Systems in History • International Realignment after the Cold War • International Realignment after 911 • International Realignment after the Iraqi War • Conclusion – • Who are the Playmakers? • Project for the New American Century (PNAC)

  3. PART IInternational Systems in History

  4. Definition of International System • Distribution of Power Among Nation States • Alliances and Counter-alliances • Guiding Principles Forging the Alliances and Counter-alliances • Stability of the System

  5. Revision:World Systemic Transformation • 1815-1870: Balance of Power System Vs • 1870-1914: Bismarkian System Vs • 1918-1939: Interwar System • 1945-1991: Bipolar System Vs

  6. The Hispanic Hegemony (15th-16th Century) • Hegemony: Spain + Portugal • Alliance: Roman Catholic Church • Challengers: Netherlands + England • Achievements: • The Era of Great Discovery • The Spanish Inquisition in Latin America • Global Colonial Empire • The Spanish “Invincible Armanda” • Basis of Power: Navigation Technology • Fall of Power: Anglo-Spanish War (1588-1589)

  7. The English Hegemony (1589-1689) • Hegemony: England • Alliance: Netherlands, Protestantism • Challenger: France • Achievements: • Expansion of British Capitalism • Establishment of New Religious Centers • Basis of Power: Merchants and Capitalism • Fall of Power: The Glorious Revolution (1689)

  8. The French Hegemony (1689-1815) • Hegemony: France • Alliance: Spain + Bourbon Monarchs • Challengers: England, Prussia, Austria, Russia • Achievements: • Louis XIV as the Sun King • Palace Culture of Versailles • Expansion of the French Model by Napoleon and the Napoleonic Empire • Basis of Power: Military + Resources • Fall of Power: Defeat of Napoleon and the Congress of Vienna (1815)

  9. The British Hegemony (II) (1815-1871) • Hegemony: Britain • Alliance: USA • Challengers: Prussia, France, Russia • Achievements: • The British Colonial Empire • The British Economic Empire • English as the World Language • Basis of Power: Capitalism + Politics • Fall of Power: German Unification (1871)

  10. The British-German Rival (I) (1871-1918) • Camp A: Britain + France + Russia + Japan + USA [Triple Entente] • Camp B (Challengers): Germany + Italy + Austria + Ottoman Turkey [Triple Alliance] • Basis of Camp A Alliance: Maintenance of Status Quo • Basis of Camp B Alliance: Saturation of Colonialism by Camp A (the very new and very old powers as the losers) • Nature of Competition: Colonies, Resources and National Pride • End of Rival: WWI (1914-1918)

  11. The British-German Rival (II) (1918-1945) • Camp A: Britain + France + USA + USSR [Allies] • Camp B (Challengers): Germany + Italy + Japan [Axis] • Basis of Camp A Alliance: Maintenance of Status Quo • Basis of Camp B Alliance: Extremism and Rightist Movements • Nature of Competition: Ideology + Military • End of Rival: WWII (1941-1945)

  12. The American-Soviet Rival (1945-1991) • Camp A: USA + Western Europe • Camp B (Challengers): USSR + China + Eastern Europe + [Post-colonial Countries] • Basis of Camp A Alliance: Capitalism • Basis of Camp B Alliance: Communism • Nature of Competition: Ideology + Military • End of Rival: The Soviet Dissolution(1991)

  13. PART IIInternational Realignment after the Cold War

  14. New Rule of World Order • Bankrupt of Communism • Direct Renunciation: Russia + CIS • Indirect Renunciation: China + Cuba • Rule of Capitalism • Globalization or “Westerniztion”? • Polarization or Standardization?

  15. Dissolution of Multi-Ethnic States • USSR  15 Countries (1991) • Yugoslavia  5 Countries (1991-1993) • Czechoslovakia  2 Countries (1993) • Ethiopia  2 Countries (1993) • Indonesia  2 Countries (1999) • Towards Multi-polarity or Uni-polarity?

  16. NATO Expansion • North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) • Original Members: USA + Canada + Western Europe + Turkey • New Members: Eastern and Central Europe • “Observer”: Russia

  17. EU Expansion • European Union • Gainers and Losers in the EU • Franco-German Axis • Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) • The “Euro-Pact” and the “Non-Euro-Pact” • The Uniqueness of Britain • New Members: Eastern Europe • The Debate of “New Europe” Vs “Old Europe” • London-Madrid-Prague-Warsaw Axis?

  18. United Nations: Its Golden Years • League of Nations (1918-1945) • United Nations (1945-) • Rubber Stamp during Cold War • Reasons for its Rise in the Post Cold War Era: • Multi-polarity after Cold War • Regional Conflicts with Little Superpower Interests • Search for the New Order • Achievements: Gulf War, Kosovan War, Somalian Civil War, East Timor Independence

  19. Pax Americana (I) (1991-2001) • Hegemony: USA • Alliance: England + Europe (West and East) • Challengers: Russia + China + Islam • Achievements: • Rule of American Capital • Informal Influence of USA Everywhere • Cultural Hegemony: Hollywood, McDonald and others • Basis of Power: Capitalism + Military + Diplomacy

  20. PART III International Realignment after 911(refer to previous lectures)

  21. Pax Americana (II) (2001) • Hegemony: USA • Alliance: Whole World • Challengers: Osama Bin Laden • Achievements: • Anti-Terror Coalition • Bush Doctrines • Bypass of United Nations • Basis of Power: Capitalism + Military + Diplomacy

  22. PART IV International Realignment after the Iraqi War

  23. From Enemies to Allies • Marshall Plan (1948): • Economic Cooperation Administration (ECA) • West Germany into American Sphere • MacArthur Plan: • Japan into American Sphere • The “New Marshall Plan”: • Eastern Europe into American Sphere • The Bush Plan: • Middle East into American Sphere?

  24. Coalition of the Willing • Head: USA • Second Heads: • Britain – Leader of the “New Europe” • Australia – Leader of Asian Pacific • New Allies (I): the Transformed Eastern Europe [protégés] • New Allies (II): the Transformed Islamic Countries? (Kuwait, Afghanistan, the Future Iraq…) [protégés] • Basis of Alliance: Globalization with American Leadership (Vertical Globalization)

  25. Franco-German-Russian Alliance • Motivation of France • Stance as an Independent Power • Purification of the EU • Motivation of Germany • Economic Competition with USA • Permanent Membership in UN Security Council • Motivation of Russia • Reassertion of Superpower Status • Breakdown of Pre-ideological Demarcation

  26. “Coalition of the Non-Willing” • Head: Franco-German-Russian Alliance • Virtual Head: China • Old Members: Islam, Africa, Latin America • New Members: Canada • Basis of Alliance: Globalization based on Polarity (Horizontal Globalization) • Messages Behind “Free Toast” and the American Caricatures

  27. The Current World Order? • Camp A: Coalition of the Willing • Camp B (Challengers): Coalition of the Unwilling + United Nations • Basis of Camp A Alliance: Globalization with American Leadership (Vertical Globalization) • Basis of Camp B Alliance: Globalization with Polarization (Horizontal Globalization) • Nature of Competition: Economy + Diplomacy • NOT Military! – the “Zero Casualty” Concept

  28. Is a New Cold War Possible? • A Concerted Franco-German-Russian U-turn after the Iraqi War? • Bush’s Refusal of Hosting Chirac in his Texas Guest House • Bush’s Acceptance of Jiang Zemin 2003 • Putin’s Insistence of Sanctioning the New Iraq • Blair’s Pledge of “No Cold War” • Just Follow the American Leadership • The Future Degree of Conflicts and Cooperation

  29. PART V Conclusion – The Playmakers

  30. Playmakers of the Current International Realignment • Crisis Management? • Quasi-believers of the American Conspiracy • George W Bush and Colleagues as Excellent Crisis Managers after 911 • Counter-effect? • Failure of Osama Bin Laden’s Grand Strategy? • Well Planning? • True Conspiracy Theory • The Only Believer: Robert Byrd (Democratic Senator) • Because All Others are Conspirers?!

  31. A Think Tank War? • Think Tank: Consultancy of Government • Project for New American Century: A Conservative Think Tank • Members: Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and the Rightists of the Current Bush Administration • 1998 Jan 28: Demanded President Clinton to “Radically Change his Foreign Policy” to Depose Saddam Hussein • Aloof Response  Alternative Plannings…

  32. Project for the New American Century (PNAC) (1998) • Extension of American Hegemony Over the Rivals (Europe, Russia, China) • Abolition of Deterrence  “Gun-at-the-head Diplomacy” (Bush Doctrine) • “Control the Flow of Oils, Control Your Rivals” • PLEASE READ THE ASSIGNED ARTICLE!!

  33. Assigned Readings • Main Text: • Margo Kingston: “A Think Tank War – Why Old Europe Says No.”http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/07/1046826528748.html • Supplementary Texts: • Andrew Marr: “Blair Steps Forward” (H&R P.175-187) The Day That Shock the World: Understanding September 11th. Ed. Jenny Baxter and Malcolm Downing. London: BBC, 2001. P.175-187. • Patrick Martin: “The 20 Lies of George W. Bush.” World Socialist Website. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/mar2003/bush-m20.shtml

  34. ~~The End~~ Thank you for attending

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