Application of IIASA GAINS Model for Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution in Europe

1. Application of IIASA GAINS Model for Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution in Europe Janusz Cofala International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

2. Methodology

3. GAINS model: GHG-Air pollution Interactions and SynergiesObjectives Integrated assessment of international emission control strategies: • Quantification of national emission control potentials and costs • For exogenous projections of activities • Balancing of efforts across countries/economic sectors for • different objective functions, and • different exogenous constraints • Considering interactions between GHGs and air pollutants • Taking into account co-benefits between air pollution control and GHG mitigation

4. GAINS integrates multiple pollutants and their multiple effects

5. Simulation/ “Scenario analysis” mode Building blocks of GAINS Energy/agricultural projections PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, nat. projections Emission control options Emissions Costs Atmospheric dispersion Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions

6. OPTIMIZATION Environmental targets The GAINS optimization mode Energy/agricultural projections PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, national projections Emission control options Emissions Costs Atmospheric dispersion Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions

7. Applications for the Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

8. Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone • Adopted in November 1999, 26 parties, entered in force in May 2005 • Sets country-specific emission ceilings for 2010 for SO2, NOx, VOCs, and NH3 • Reductions in Europe (relative to 1990): • SO2 – 63%, • NOx – 41% • VOC – 40% • NH3 – 17%. • Based on RAINS analysis • Benefits: • Less ecosystems with excessive acidification (78 Mha) and eutrophication (57Mha) • Number of days with excessive ozone levels halved • 47,500 fewer premature deaths • Exposure of vegetation to ozone 44% lower • Currently under revision; GAINS used as a scientific tool

9. Current and future (2020) emissions of air pollutants in Europe and Russia, kilotons Russia – European part Europe

10. Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months 2020 Baseline (4.7 months) 2000 (8.2 months)

11. Emission control costs of further reductions in health effects of PM

12. Loss in statistical life expectancy - base year and optimized 75% reduction in health effects from PM

13. Costs for achieving 75% improvement of health effects from PM

14. Use of GAINS to explore co-benefits of climate policy for air pollution

15. Low carbon strategies have significant co-benefits CO2 emissions vs. health impacts (YOLLs) • Low CO2 strategies result in • less SO2, NOx and PM emissions, • lower damage to health and vegetation from reduced air pollution, • cost savings for air pollution control equipment, which compensate (part of) GHG mitigation costs. ● EU-27 ● China ● India

16. On-line calculator on the Internet

17. Why actively participate in integrated assessment ? • Better understanding of preparatory work for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol • Correcting current information in GAINS • Possibility of analyzing effects of national pathways and control strategies like: - different demand for energy, - emission reductions, their environmental impacts and costs of technologies from technical annexes - effects of grace periods or derogations in technology implementation 4. Analysis of co-benefits of climate scenarios for air pollution 5. Analysis of costs of reduction of GHG (GAINS GHG Mitigation Efforts Calculator)

18. Access to on-line versions: Europe China and East Asia South Asia Annex I countries Policy reports, user tutorials,model documentation. The GAINS model is freely accessible on the Internet: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at