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Population

Population. Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176 Wikipedia. http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg. Thomas Malthus.

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Population

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  1. Population Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176 Wikipedia http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg

  2. Thomas Malthus • 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society • Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence • Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically • The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise.

  3. Paul Ehrlich • 1968: The Population Bomb • “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. • In the 1970s the world will undergo famines— • Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”

  4. World Population

  5. World Population http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-pop-growth-chart-map-sm.gif

  6. Human Population Density http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-map.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/human-conditions.php%3Fformat%3Dprint&h=279&w=600&sz=15&hl=en&start=3&tbnid=s2UwthIUrW89qM:&tbnh=63&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dlife%2Bexpectancy%2Bmap%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den

  7. Demographic Transition • First, high birth rates and high death rates • Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop • Finally, low birth rates match low death rates

  8. Demographic Transition • 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries • 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries • 2050: Projected completion of transition

  9. Demographic Transition • Example: U.S. History • When agrarian society, people had many kids • Source of security, labor

  10. Demographic Transition • Example: U.S. History • When became industrial, fewer kids/family • Lowered infant mortality • No need to rely on children’s labor • More opportunities for women • Happened without birth control

  11. Global Fertility • 1950’s: 5 children/woman • 1970’s: 4 children/woman • 1990’s: 2.8 children/woman • Replacement: 2.1 children/woman

  12. Global Population • Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop • Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China • Great Leap Forward Famine

  13. World Population Projection • Estimated to peak at 11 billion in 2200

  14. World Population Growth

  15. AIDS • 40 million people infected with HIV • Many will die of AIDS • Will not greatly impact global population growth • Will Impact some countries • Losses by 2020: • Uganda 45% • Rwanda 35% • Malawi 30% Malawi AIDS orphans

  16. Global HIV

  17. Food Production per Capita • Food Production per capita is rising worldwide • But falling in Africa • Food production is keeping up with population • Otherwise food prices would have risen • Food prices have dropped

  18. Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa • Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population

  19. Per Capita Production of Calories, Fat, Protein

  20. Progressivist View • Things are good and getting better: • Worldwide standard of living • Education • Health • Trade • People are an asset. • Population causes shortages which raise prices, • stimulating entrepreneurs to satisfy the shortages. • We end up better off as a result. Julian Simon

  21. Progressivist View • Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are • Decreased Infant Mortality • Increased Life Expectancy

  22. Life Expectancy http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-map.gif

  23. Revisionist View • Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of • Population growth • Ecological destruction • Social tyranny. • The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies • humans are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem) • and therefore can destroy it at will. Civilization is based on Agriculture

  24. Daniel Quinn • 1992: Ishmael • Although population is 5.5 billion, we produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving • Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people. • Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion. • Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion • To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.

  25. Social Equity View • Problems of • poverty • overpopulation • ecological destruction • Are due to • inequity of wealth • unfairness of economic and social systems Frances Moore Lappe, Food First http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg

  26. If the world were 100 people (2005) • 51 male • 49 female • 60 Asians, • 14 Africans, • 12 Europeans, • 8 Latin Americans, • 5 from USA and Canada • 1 from the South Pacific • 82 nonwhite • 18 white • 67 non-Christian • 33 be Christian (Source: Family Care Foundation)

  27. If the world were 100 people(2005) • 80 live in substandard housing • 67 unable to read • 50 malnourished • 1 dying of starvation • 33 without access to safe water supply • 39 lack access to improved sanitation • 24 have no electricity • Most of the 76 with electricity use it only for light at night (Source: Family Care Foundation)

  28. If the world were 100 people(2005) • 7 have access to the internet • 1 has a college education • 1 has HIV • 2 near birth • 1 near death • 5 control 32% of the entire world’s wealth • All 5 U.S. citizens • 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income (Source: Family Care Foundation)

  29. Both hunger and high fertility occur when: • Poverty is extreme and widespread • Society denies security and opportunity to people • Infant mortality is high • Most people can’t get land, jobs, education, health care, old age security • Few opportunities for women outside of home Bangladesh mother

  30. Children • Labor force • Chance for a job in city • Security • major investment • rational choice

  31. Women’s Education • Powerful predictor of lower fertility • Reflects opportunity in society

  32. Male Poverty • Low self-esteem • Dominate women and children • Thus more children

  33. Examples • Sri Lanka: • lower price rice • led to population decline • Cuba: • low prices for food and health care • reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6 • Kerala, India: • lower price rice, kerosene • 1/3 birth rate of average in India • Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in India Kerala, India

  34. Family Planning • Birth Control is responsible for only 15-20% total fertility decline • Thus population growth cannot be brought down simply by family planning or contraception • but it can speed the decline • Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased • 9% in 1960 • 60% in late 1990s • Demographic Transition requires improved • Health • Social Security • Education IUD: Intra Uterine Device

  35. Sterilization • Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries • Quotas are set • Incentives are used • Cash, roads, transportation, latrines • For hungry, choices are limited • 1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized Indian woman

  36. Puerto Rico: La Operacion • U. S. seized in 1898 • Sugar companies set up vast plantations • Small farmers evicted • By 1925, 2% of population owned 80% of land, 70% of population landless’ • Unemployment termed “overpopulation” by U.S. • By 1940’s light manufacturing moved in attracted to cheap labor, low taxes

  37. Puerto Rico: La Operacion • Young women were key to labor force • Problem was pregnancy • Result: massive sterilization program • Women coerced into sterilization without being told it was irreversible • By 1968, 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized. • Emigration and sterilization resulted in population drop with no increase in standard of living.

  38. Bangladesh • Intensive Family Planning in Matlab region • Contraceptive use doubled • Resulted in reduced birth rate • Cost was very high: $120/birth averted • This is 120% of per capita gross domestic product • Not replicable on a national scale

  39. China • 1950s, 60s Under Mao • children encouraged • Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman • 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation • “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many” • “late, long, few” • Have fewer children later • greater spacing between • Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_congress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm

  40. Fertility decline in China

  41. China One Child Policy • 1979 “one child” policy enacted • For urban areas • Material benefits • if have 1 child • Social & official pressure • If have more than 1 child • 71% Chinese are rural • Multiple children are common • Fertility rate has declined • But also declined in other Asian countries without coersion • Human rights violation?

  42. Birth Control Methods in China

  43. Skewed sex ratio • Sex ratio at birth (2000) • 117:100 male:female • Maternal Hepatitus B may account for much of the skewing • Boys preferred • Men care for parents in old age • Women join husband’s family • Care for husband’s parents • Selective abortion of girls • Use ultrasound to determine sex • If first child is a girl, want second to be a boy • Illegal but suspected • Female infanticide suspected • before ultrasound

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