SSI

2. SSI Introduction IntroductionPurpose of the SSIWorking definition of space security“The secure and sustainable access to and use of space, and freedom from space-based threats.” Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

3. SSI Introduction Methodology1) Research on trends and developments2) Online questionnaire3) Expert review of research Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

4. SSI Introduction The Space Environment- Trends -Growing debris threats to spacecraft, but annual rate of new debris production decreasingIncreasing awareness of space debris threats and continued development of international debris mitigationguidelines Growing demand for radio frequency spectrum Growing demand for orbital slot allocationsSpace surveillance capabilities to support collision avoidance slowly improving Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

5. SSI Introduction The Space Environment- Developments - Space debris population increased by 2.1 percentSpace debris mitigation guidelines drafted at UN COPUOSOver one thousand cases of radio-frequency interference reportedRegional efforts to harmonize radio-frequency utilization in Europe and Southeast AsiaChina established space debris monitoring body Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

6. SSI Introduction Laws, Policies, and Doctrines- Trends -Progressive development of legal framework for outer space activities: 1967 OST; 1968 Rescue Agreement; 1972 Liability and 1975 Registration ConventionsSome work at COPUOS, but the CD has been deadlocked on space weapons issues since 1998 National space policies consistently emphasize international cooperation and peaceful uses of outer spaceGrowing focus within national military doctrine on security uses of outer space Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

7. SSI Introduction Laws, Policies, and Doctrines - Developments - Further stalemate in “Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space” (PAROS) debate at UNExpansion of COPUOS mandate proposedNew space policies adopted in China, Europe, Japan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and USIndia, Israel, and Japan stressing national security space applicationsUS to release of new military space policy directive  Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

8. SSI Introduction Civil Space and Global Utilities - Trends - Growth in the number of actors gaining access to spaceChanging priorities and funding levels within civil space programsSteady growth in international cooperation in civil space Dramatic growth in use of global utilities Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

9. SSI Introduction Civil Space and Global Utilities- Developments - Global progress in space access, launch, and propulsion technologiesCivil space agencies announce new programs, greater focus on manned space exploration and micro-satellitesModest increases in international civil space budgetsSpace agencies develop asteroid interception missions Successful launch of first Galileo satellite despite funding concerns China and India access Russian GLONASS satellite navigation system Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

10. SSI Introduction Commercial Space - Trends - Continued overall growth in commercial space industry World commercial space revenues rose from $2.1 billion in 1980 to ~$100 billion in 2004Declining commercial launch costs support increased commercial access to space GEO launch costs have declined from about $40,000/kg in 1990 to $26,000/kg in 2000Government subsidies and national security concerns play an important role in the commercial space sector Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

11. SSI Introduction Commercial Space - Developments - Unequal growth in commercial space industryPrivatization and consolidation continuesUS continues to lose commercial launch market share to Europe and RussiaInterest in nascent space tourism sectorUS government remains single largest commercial space client Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

12. SSI Introduction Space Support for Terrestrial Military Operations- Trends -US and USSR/Russia lead in developing military space systems US has over 100 operational military satellites, 90% of global military space spending Russia has approximately 61 operational military satellitesMore states developing military space capabilities: Australia, Chile, China, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, NATO, Spain, UK all have dedicated military space assets Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

13. SSI Introduction Space Support for Terrestrial Military Operations- Developments -Significant cost overruns and delays in US military space acquisition programsRussia continues to face program setbacks Regional tensions drive military space development in Asia and Middle East China continues to expand military space program European nations expand imaging and communications capabilities Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

14. SSI Introduction Space Systems Protection- Trends -US and Russia lead in general capabilities to detect rocket launches, the US in the development of technologies to detect direct attacks on satellitesProtection of satellite ground stations a concern: protection of satellite communications links poor but improvingProtection of satellites against some direct threats improvingRussia and the US lead in capabilities to rapidly rebuild space systems following a direct attack on satellites Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

15. SSI Introduction Space Systems Protection- Developments -US developing geostationary and ground-based space situational awarenessUS successfully tests GPS “pseudolite”Increasing encryption of satellite communicationsImprovements in radiation hardened processorsUS research satellite to facilitate greater use of MEOSmaller, cheaper launches increasing ability to recover after attackRussia continuing to develop air launch capacity Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

16. SSI Introduction Space Systems Negation- Trends -Proliferation of capabilities to attack ground stations and communications linksUS leading in the development of space situational awareness capabilities to support space negationOngoing proliferation of ground-based capabilities to attack satellitesIncreasing access to space-based negation enabling capabilities Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

17. SSI Introduction Space Systems Negation- Developments -State-sponsored jamming incidents in Libya and Iran, Falun Gong sponsored jamming in China Progress on High-Energy Lasers in the US and on basic laser research in ChinaUpgrades in US and Russian ground-based anti-ballistic missile systemsActors in China, France, and UK continue basic research into kinetic kill vehiclesUS micro-satellites demonstrate dual-use rendezvous and surveillance capabilities Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

18. SSI Introduction Space-Based Strike Weapons- Trends -No space-based strike weapons (SBSW) have been tested or deployed in space; the US continues to develop a space-based interceptor for its missile defense systemA growing number of actors are developing SBSW precursor technologies outside of SBSW programs Precision navigation Micro-satellites Precision re-entry Precision attitude control High power lasers High-G thrusters Large ∆-V thrusters Precision maneuverability Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

19. SSI Introduction Space-Based Strike Weapons- Developments -SBSW ProgramsUS NFIRE Kill Vehicle test cancelledSBSW pre-cursor technologiesDevelopment of precision re-entry technology in US, Russia, China, and EuropeUpgrades in US and Russian global missile tracking and warningUS, Europe, China, Russia, and India continue research and development of global positioning systems Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion