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Research to operations (R2O) and S2S forecast and verification products development

Research to operations (R2O) and S2S forecast and verification products development. Context: The transition of S2S research efforts and developments to operations will be a fundamental aspect to be addressed in phase 2 of the S2S project

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Research to operations (R2O) and S2S forecast and verification products development

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  1. Research to operations (R2O) and S2S forecast and verification products development

  2. Context: The transition of S2S research efforts and developments to operations will be a fundamental aspect to be addressed in phase 2 of the S2S project Proposed sub-project aiming to enhance operational infrastructure Sub-project title: Research to Operations (R2O) and S2S Forecast and Verification Products Development Sub-project would work in coordination with joint CBS-CCl Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-seasonal to Longer time Scales (IPET-OPSLS) and the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR)

  3. 1. Scientific and Operational Objectives • R2O transitionwill require efforts in two important aspects • a) Research for testing and developing methodologies for calibration, combination, verification and generation of forecast products • b) Coordination with the relevant WMO technical commissions to define the standards and protocols for operational implementation and exchange of S2S forecasts such that by the end of the Phase 2 of the S2S, the infrastructure related to the data exchange to support research can be transitioned into the operational domain. Coordinationthrough the IPET-OPSLS. Goal: finalize the transition by the end of Phase 2 of S2S so that the WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-model ensemble (LC-LRFMME) can obtain the S2S forecasts directly from the WMO Global Producing Centers (GPCs) and develop the capability for delivering S2S forecasts and reforecasts, independently of the S2S research database developed in Phase 1 of the S2S project. Data exchange envisioned to follow the paradigm of what is currently done for the seasonal forecast exchange among GPCs

  4. 2. Proposed sub-project activities 2019-2023 • Promote the development and inter-comparison of different methodologies for forecast calibration, multi-model combination, verification, and forecast formats (e.g. probability of threshold exceedance). This will build on the work of the current (Phase I) S2S Verification and Products Sub-project • Make recommendations for operational centres to harmonize their real-time and re-forecast set-ups to facilitate S2S forecast calibration, multi-model combination and verification

  5. 2. Proposed sub-project activities 2019-2023 • Work with IPET-OPSLS to (a) develop standards to define criteria for the designation of GPCs for S2S Predictions, and (b) establish standards for data exchange and delivery of S2S hindcasts and real-time forecasts to the WMO LC-LRFMME in support of the objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFSC), Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects (SWFDPs). The envisioned deliverables will be the formalization of the designation criteria and data exchange standards in the WMO (Global Data Processing and Forecasting System) GDPFS manual

  6. 3. Proposed Activities for 2019 • Develop designation criteria for Global Producing Centres for Subseasonal Forecasts (GPC-SSF): March 2019 • Recommend verification scores for sub-seasonal forecasts: June 2019 • Disseminate via a wiki page the work performed by the S2S research community on calibration, multi-model combination, verification and forecast products generation, including software tools, web portals and publications: June 2019 • The establishment of operational sub-seasonal GPCs (and possibly an associated LC) will be an important legacy of the S2S project and the R2O, verification and products sub-project is supposed to contribute to this effort.

  7. 4. Resources So far no external resources have been granted to support the activities of this sub-project. A proposal has been submitted to a 2018 Belmont Forum call on e-Infrastructures and Data Management Collaborative Research Action, involving partners from the USA, Brazil, Japan and Chinese Taipei, and is under evaluation. Unfortunately, the proposal was not selected for funding.

  8. 5. Linkages with WCRP/WWRP WGs & projects On the operational side, this sub-project has linkages with Inter-Programme Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-seasonal to Longer-Time Scale (IPET-OPSLS), a WMO joint team of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) and the Commission for Climatology (CCl) On the research side this sub-project has linkages with the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), a WMO joint working group of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP).

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