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Research design and opportunities for evaluation

Research design and opportunities for evaluation. USAID Feed the Future Africa RISING (Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation) Monitoring & Evaluation Expert Meeting, September 5-7, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

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Research design and opportunities for evaluation

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  1. Research design and opportunities for evaluation USAID Feed the Future Africa RISING (Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation) Monitoring & Evaluation Expert Meeting, September 5-7, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  2. What are options for SI poverty, nutrition, ecosystem stability? • What are processes/mechanisms for integrating & delivering SI innovations? • How improve livelihoods out of poverty/improve nutrition? • How upscale/disseminate integrated innovations for SI beyond AR area? Research questions

  3. Need rigorous research design (hypotheses, parameters, puzzle, analytical methods, data collection) + appropriate counterfactuals/controls for confounding factors • Need to move away from on-farm plot-level randomized trials to design that allows farmers to select into adoption • Can use quasi-experimental and experimental (RCTs) Motivation

  4. Need global best practice: RCTs “gold standard” • Need IPGs: internationally generalizable lessons: scalability • Need to leverage public-private-civil society partnerships funded by USAID already on the ground • Need to link supply and demand side experimentation Motivation

  5. National Level Regional Level Agglomeration District No intervention Platforms: SI innovations “Counterfactual” Obs. unit Village Village Village Village Village No TF1 TF2 intervention Trials design: Random placement Response variable dependent on the trials hypothesis Response variable dependent on the trials hypothesis Degree of intervention/ method Limited/observation Limited/observation (RQ3) Some/exploration (RQ2 and 3) High/e.g., Fisher or classical experimentation: Mother-Baby; RCTS (RQ1) No intervention

  6. Trials design: Random phase-in

  7. Consumers Exports Consumers Subsistence households Consumption Supermarkets/ stores Distribution Market retailers Processing Processors/ manufacturers Storers Export centers Central collectors Trade Firms’ buyers Agents/brokers Local collectors On-farm production Farmers Breeders, foundation, certified and farmer seed; fertilizer; inoculants; agrochemicals; extension Inputs Channel 1 Subsistence production & consumption Channel 2 Fresh grains unprocessed Channel 4 Dried grains export Channel 5 Dried grains processed Channel 3 Dried grains unprocessed

  8. Trials design: Demand-side: Encouragement • Use encouragement as an instrumental variable for adoption • Random extension of credit to some farmers, randomized price subsidies through coupon distribution • Randomized Mother-Baby trials

  9. Trials design: Demand-side: Encouragement: M-B

  10. Trials design: Demand-side: Encouragement : M-B

  11. Trials design: Demand-side: Encouragement : M-B

  12. Trials design: Supply-side: Introduce to entire villages mimicking markets • Sell innovations at the market price • Choose villages without innovations and randomly choose subset of villages to sell innovations • Randomized offer of production and marketing contracts to entire treatment villages

  13. Trials design: Supply-side: Introduce to entire villages mimicking markets

  14. Offer some randomly selected groups of households in different settings at multiple sites the same technologies and delivery mechanisms • GIS-based meta-analysis of the effects of the interventions • GIS-based prediction of effects of subsequent implementation of the program Scalability

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