Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Director of Institutional Research & Assessment

1. The Tension between Student Persistence and Institutional Retention: An Examination of the Relationship between First-Semester GPA and Student Progression Rates of First-Time Students (Session 529) Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Director of Institutional Research & Assessment Central Connecticut State University, New Britain, CT hoschbrj@ccsu.edu Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum Seattle, WA May 26, 2008 This presentation is online at http://www.ccsu.edu/oira/research

2. Overview • The Relationship Between First-Semester GPA and Graduation and Retention Rates of Full-Time, First-Time Students • (And two brief caveats) • The National Picture – Data from CSRDE • Case Study – Central Connecticut State U. • Conclusions and Implications

3. Major Findings • First-semester grade point average of full-time first-time students is: • very predictive of graduation and retention rates • this relationship is underreported • Implications • Students who perform well stay and graduate, students who do not perform well tend to depart • Corollary: students get out of their education what they put into it

4. Caveats • GPA is not just about academic performance, but also encompasses factors such as • Preparation • Effort • Commitment • Emotional adjustment • Social integration • Financial stability • Etc. • Institutions should not be let off the hook for improving: • Instructional quality • Integration of co-curricular activities • Student contact with faculty and staff • Ineffective policies and procedures

5. CSRDE Study • Consortium for the Study of Retention Data Exchange (CSRDE) collects institution-reported data about progress and graduation rates of full-time, first-time students • Data for cohort entering in 2000 published in 2007. • Institutions with incomplete data excluded • Institutions reporting <3% of entering cohort earning first semester GPA<2.0 excluded

6. CSRDE Institutions Included in Study Population

7. Institutional Success Rates by First Semester GPA Error bars represent +/- one standard deviation Source: 2006-07 CSRDE Retention Report

8. Scatterplot of Institutions and Retention Rates N = 315 institutions, DF= 2, SSE = 1.76, SE = 0.075, p < 0.001; Excludes institutions reporting less than 3% of the full-time, first-time cohort earned a first semester GPA below 2.0, on the basis that these institutions are not representative of most post-secondary institutions. Data source (CSRDE, 2007) RetnRate = 0.858 - 0.575*Below2.0 R2 = 0.255

9. Scatterplot of Institutions and Graduation Rates N = 315 institutions, DF= 2, SSE = 5.16, SE = 0.128763, p < 0.001. Excludes institutions reporting less than 3% of the full-time, first-time cohort earned a first semester GPA below 2.0, on the basis that these institutions are not representative of most post-secondary institutions. Data source (CSRDE, 2007) GradRate = 0.719 -1.14*Below2.0 R2= 0.315

10. Univariate Regression Models *** Significant at p<0.001

11. Multivariate Regression Models institutional control was not significant for graduation rates in a stepwise regression * Significant at p<0.05; *** Significant at p<0.001

12. Institutional Profile: Central Connecticut State University • Public – part of Connecticut State Univ. System • Carnegie 2005 Master’s-Larger Programs • New Britain, CT (Hartford MSA) • Fall 2007 Enrollment: • 12,106 headcount (9,704 undergraduate, 23% residential); 9,288 full-time equivalent enrollment • 52% female; 16% minority • Full-time, first-time students: 1,469 (56% residential) • Full-time, new transfer students: 678 • Six-year graduation rates: • 44% full-time, first-time students • 56% transfer students (full-time upon entry)

13. Institutional Progress Rates

14. Six-Year Graduation Rates Disaggregated (Entry F’99-F’01)

15. Six-Year Graduation Rate by First Semester GPA (Full-Time First-Time Students Entering 1999, 2000, 2001)

16. One-Year Retention Rates by First Semester Grade Point Average

17. Six-Year Graduation Rates by First Semester Grade Point Average

18. Logistic Regression

19. Implications and Conclusions (1) • Institutions should focus on student success and improved graduation rates will follow • Successful students stay and graduate, unsuccessful students do not • Graduation and retention rates are indicators of student success, not outcomes

20. Implications and Conclusions (2) • Focus on the first semester • FYE, early intervention programs • Student GPA over time remains relatively consistent after controlling for attrition

21. Implications and Conclusions (3) • Consider student engagement, especially time spent on academics Source: NSSE National Results, 2007

22. Implications and Conclusions (4) • Grade inflation • Reassure faculty they are not being asked to grade differently, but instead to develop ways to prompt students to learn more effectively • Nevertheless, grade inflation is a possibility: Source: NCES (2007), National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 2003-04

23. Implications and Conclusions (5) • Reframe the national debate: • Balance notions of retention (institution’s responsibility) with persistence (student’s responsibility) • Student success (i.e. program completion) requires a partnership among students, institutions, and policymakers

24. The Tension between Student Persistence and Institutional Retention: An Examination of the Relationship between First-Semester GPA and Student Progression Rates of First-Time Students (Session 529) Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Director of Institutional Research & Assessment Central Connecticut State University, New Britain, CT hoschbrj@ccsu.edu Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum Seattle, WA May 26, 2008 This presentation is online at http://www.ccsu.edu/oira/research