Fernandes VLGA 2 February 2012
Scope • The system • The contenders • The challenges after the elections, regardless of who wins.
Presidential election (17 March) • Absolute majority vote through a two-round system to serve a 5-year term. • 17 March: first round. • Mid-April: second round. The top two from the first round (if first round is inconclusive).
2007 results, first round. • 8 candidates. 81.8% voter turn-out. • Francisco Guterres (Lu’Olo), the President of Fretilin, got 27.9% of the votes. • Jose Ramos-Horta got 21.8%. • Fernando de Araújo (LaSama), the President of the Democratic Party (PD), got 19.2%.
2007 results, second round • Lu’Olo v. JRH. Voter turn-out was 81%. • JRH won with 69.2% of the votes.
2012 Presidential Elections • Jose Ramos-Horta • Francisco Guterres (Lu’Olo), FRETILIN • Jose Maria Vasconcelhos (Taur Matan Ruak) • Fernando de Araujo (LaSama), PD • Lucas da Costa • Jose Luis Guterres (Lugu), FRENTI-Mudanca
2012 Presidential Elections • Francisco Xavier do Amaral, ASDT* • Manuel Tilman, KOTA* • Rogerio Lobato • Abilio Araujo • Angela Pires • Angela Freitas
Predictions • There are no opinion polls. • The presidential elections will provide an indication of the various parties’ strengths. • But see “Juventude” chapter in this book ==
Party-List system • Party-List proportional representation system. • Constitution s.65(4). • One, nationwide constituency • 65 members are elected through a closed-list proportional representation system to serve 5-year terms
Party-List system • Each party must provide a list that contains the names of 65 candidates and no fewer than 25 alternate candidates. • Every fourth candidate on a list must be female.
Party-List system • It does result in proportional outcomes, so it is very democratic in that sense. • List selection is very much in the hands of the party’s leadership, not voters. • You don’t have a local representative i.e. no direct connection between individual MP and local voters.
2007 results 65 seats, contested by 14 parties. Voter turn-out was 80.5%. Won by a coalition of CNRT, ASDT-PSD, PD and UNDERTIM.
Parliamentary election (29 June) • Population: 1.15 million • Electorate: ~ 550,000
Parliamentary elections 2012 • Post-election negotiations are probably going to be determinative of the result, since it’s unlikely any party will win an absolute majority. • Coalition-building will be the name of the game. • Any opposition party wanting to win government is going to have to convince the voters that the status quo is more risky than change.
Challenges • Inter-generational experiences of what it means to be East Timorese. • Only $200,000 for a Center for Victim Identification! • Relationship with its neighbours. • What to do about men with guns? (SSR)
Literacy • Adult literacy rate rose from 36% in 2000 to 58% in 2007. • Literacy rate of the 15-24 age group rose from less than 50% to 85.1% in 2007. • First post-independence government’s achievement, despite very little money.
Literacy • Only 46% of children starting primary school reach grade 6. • Quality of education: 80% of grade 3 students in Timor-Leste failed to meet the minimum level of learning in mathematics.
Literacy • The number of primary students will increase from 183,430 (2005) to (309,020) in 2020. • Current ratio of primary school teachers to students is 35:1 • To keep this ratio between 35 and 40, the number of teachers needs to increase by 36% net.
Literacy • Currently there are 993 primary schools. • 290 more will need to be built before 2020 • Note that 83% of classrooms in existing schools were identified as being in an extremely poor condition.
Challenges (Saikia et al) • Population growth rate of 3.5% p.a. • Fastest growing nation in Asia. • Fifth fastest in the world. • Will double in 17 years. • The total fertility rate is 5.7 (down from 7.8)
2020 forecast (Saikia et al) • The total fertility rate will be 5.32. • Life expectancy: 64.2 years (m) and 66.6 years (f). • Total population will be 1.67 million. • Population growth rate will be 2.95% p.a. • 45% will be under 15 years. • Median age will be 17.78 years.
2020 forecast (Saikia et al) • Total dependency ratio (children and old people as a % of working-age population)will be 92%. • Child dependency ratio (children under 15 as a % of the working-age population) will be 86%.
Child dependency ratios (%) ‘The high dependency ratio means that the working-age population needs to carry the increasing burden of supporting the young and old population…It will be almost impossible for the economically active age group aged 15–64 years to accumulate savings.’
Elections 2012 • To date, these issues haven’t come up for discussion in the electioneering. • Maybe that will change, if any of the opposition parties tries to win by convince the voters that the status quo is more risky than change. • THE END.