1 / 16

Estimates of Windstorm induced Loss in Europe

ENSEMBLES GA 2007 – 12 Nov - 16 Nov 2006, Prague. Estimates of Windstorm induced Loss in Europe. RT6, WP 6.2 Meeting. Markus Donat Gregor Leckebusch Uwe Ulbrich. FUBs objective:

nolen
Télécharger la présentation

Estimates of Windstorm induced Loss in Europe

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ENSEMBLES GA 2007 – 12 Nov - 16 Nov 2006, Prague Estimates of Windstorm induced Loss in Europe RT6, WP 6.2 Meeting Markus Donat Gregor Leckebusch Uwe Ulbrich ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  2. FUBs objective: • Estimation of loss potential due to extreme wind storms in the ENSEMBLES climate model simulations (GCMs and RCMs) • Main topic: estimation of robustness of the scenario changes considering the different ensemble members Task 6.2.3: Design of sensitivity analyses based on existing climate projections and some initial performance tests Task 6.2.5: Development of models for understanding and evaluating the impacts of extremes. These models will operate within a probabilistic framework, incorporating where possible effects of adaptation and acclimatisation to climate change. Task 6.2.10: Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact models for crops, human health, forest fire, forest damage, intense precipitation, drought, wind and temperature extremes from available climate projections ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  3. GCMs in ENSEMBLES: Data ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  4. Large-scale atmospheric circulation Mean MSLP-Fields (winter ONDJFM) MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  5. Large-scale atmospheric circulation Classification of daily (geostrophic) circulation at 50N, 10E Jones et al. (1993), Jenkinson and Collison(1977) Calculation of Directional Flow (F) and Shear Vorticity (Z) based on MSLP data on 2.5°x2.5° grid [unit=hPa per 10°] Classification into Circulation Weather Types (CWTs) Types: directional, (anti-) cyclonal, hybrid types, undefined Additionally: „Gale Days“ (if G=sqrt(F²+(0.5Z)²) > 30) ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  6. Large-scale atmospheric circulation Daily Circulation Weather Types (CWTs) 20C, winter ONDJFM Changes in CWT frequencies A1B-20C, 95% significant ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  7. Gale days ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  8. Cyclone Tracks Track Density ENSEMBLE MEAN A1B-20C Winter ENSEMBLE MEAN 20C Winter MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  9. Cyclone Tracks Intensity (Lapl. P) MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  10. Extreme Wind Speeds:95th percentile of daily maximum wind MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  11. for for annual loss ≈ Storm loss model Loss estimation based on Klawa, M. und U. Ulbrich, 2003: “A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 725-732. „normed loss velocity“ ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  12. Estimation of storm loss Loss Ratio 20C-Period [unit: € per 1000€] Climate Change Signal (A2): Leckebusch et al. (2007), GRL ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  13. 1st Analysis of RCM Data 98th percentile of daily maximum wind (ONDJFM) Data: ERA40 1961-2000; ENSEMBLES RCM-Simulations (ERA40-driven, 50km) ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  14. Estimation of storm loss (max. wind speed) Data: GdV; ERA- 40 1970-1999; ENSEMBLES RCM-Simulations (ERA40-driven, 50km) ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  15. Estimation of storm loss (max. gust) Data: GdV; ERA- 40 1970-1999; ENSEMBLES RCM-Simulations (ERA40-driven, 50km) ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

  16. Contribution to Deliverables D6.15: Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Month 48 D6.16: Joint WP 6.2 paper: Impacts of projected changes in climate extremes over Europe to 2100: a review of key sectors. Month 54 ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov

More Related