Vulnerability Impact Assessment (VIA) in Panchase, Nepal

1. GON/MFSC-UNDP/UNEP-IUCN Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Project, Nepal Vulnerability Impact Assessment (VIA) in Panchase, Nepal By: Madhav Karki, Ph.D. For ISET-Nepal EBA project team

2. Outline • Brief Introduction of Panchase • Purpose and Process of VIA • Adapting to the UNEP/WCMC Guide - Conceptual Framework: Integrating EBA and CBA Tools • EBA Strategy • Methodology • Preliminary Results • Implications to the ongoing Work

3. Panchase Conservation Area (VDC Boundaries)

4. Panchase Conservation Area (Watershed boundaries)

5. Panchase Ecosystems: unique and challenging • Climatic conditions (e.g. sub-tropical-temperate); • Geophysical conditions (e.g. mountainous); • Dominant land use by humans (e.g. agriculture and –forestry ecosystem); • Land cover – mainly forest, grassland, fresh water, and agriculture; • Species composition (e.g. Oak-Castanopsis-Quercus forests); • Resource management systems and institutions (e.g. protected and community managed forests, open grazing, mixed farming system).

6. Population Growth/Decline in Project DistrictsSource: CBS, 2011

7. Population data by VDC (2011)

8. Population data by VDC (2011)

9. Purpose and Use of VIA • To assess impacts of CC not only on society but also on the ecosystem and the links between the two, • To define the objectives and focus of adaptation using ecosystem services in the centre. • To develop a knowledge base for developing human centred adaptation strategy for ecosystem management • to develop adaptation strategies that reduce climate sensitive risks and enhance resilience of community & ecosystem

10. Process: Conceptual framework, strategy, & adapted methodology

11. VIA of the Society & Ecosystem(Source: UNEP/WCMC Guidelines)

12. General Process for VIA and EBA strategy development (UNEP/WCMC Guidelines)

13. Climate Impacts on Fragile Systems and Marginal Agents (Source: ISET)

14. Coupled Human-Environmental System (CHES) ( Adapted from Locatelli, et al (2008)

15. Conception of System as gateways

16. Integration of EBA & CBA Tool • Both CBA & EBA are human-centred • Ecosystem goods and services are critical resources for people-centred adaptation • Both aim to scale up and make community-driven • CBA reduce peoples’ vulnerability; EBA enhances resilience • Both recognize the relevance of local specificities • CBA empowers people; EBA strengthen community-based approaches • Integrated approaches better address shortcomings of both

17. EBA strategy • Capitalize on natural resilience of human and eco-systems to a certain threshold level of changes; • Build on these social and bio-physical system strengths ecosystem services are available for adaptation now and in future; • Develop knowledge through traditional and scientific sources and processes • Develop adaptation strategies that reduce climate sensitive risks and builds system resilience

18. EbA Strategic Framework Sustainable Management of Ecosystem Land use Land cover Change Climate Change People and ecosystem Biodiversity Conservation Restoration of Ecosystem Socio-economic Change

19. Different Interpretation of Vulnerability (Source: O’Brian et al, 2007) Note: In the EBA context, Contextual Vulnerability is appropriate as the impacts are due to surrounding changes and existing conditions:

20. Habitat Fragmentation Vulnerability Habitat Loss Geo- graphy Hydro- logy Topo-graphy Historical Climate Variability Climate Change indicators Exposure Buffering Features Sensitivity Exposure Landscape Exposure Climate Stress Adaptive Constraints Impacts Landscape-based Vulnerability Assessment (adapted from Klausmeyer et al 2011)

21. Adapted VIA Process for Panchase: Enhanced Risk & Threats 1. Assess Vulnerability Review of methods 2. Assess Impacts 3. Assess Adaptive Constraints 5. New vulnerability due to Climate Stress 4. Assess changed sensitivity and exposure Monitoring and Evaluation 6 Resource maps Knowledge & Information Base 7. Adaptation planning & options 8.Prioritized for implementation Shared Learning Dialogue (SLD) envelop Community of practices

22. Steps for Localized System-based Vulnerability Assessment (VIA Tools for Panchase) • Participatory Resource Mapping • Adaptation Capacity/Constraint Assessment • Vulnerability Trend Assessment • Current Climate Vulnerability Mapping • Landscape Level Vulnerability Mapping • Community-level Climate Change Perception • Participatory Scenario Building • Adaptation Planning and Visioning (Shared Learning Dialogue) • Adaptation Strategy Development

23. preliminary results

24. Panchase Conservation Area (Land Use Land Cover Map, 1993)

25. Panchase Conservation Area (Land Use Land Cover 2010) (Source: ICIMOD)

26. Panchase Conservation Area (aspect)

27. Panchase Conservation Area (elevation)

28. Socio-economic Vulnerability (% landless households/population)

29. Resources Maps (Rivers and rivulets)

30. Adaptive Capacity/Institutional Strength Map

31. Climate Change Projections for Nepal

32. Temperature Trend – Kaski (804)* * The number in the bracket is the DHM Station Number

33. Temperature Trend Kaski (804)

34. Temperature Trend, Syangja (805)

35. Temperature Trend, Syangja 805

36. Temperature Trend, Parbat 614

37. Temperature Trend, Parbat 614

38. Preliminary Results (Climate Stress) Cs+ Exposure +Sensitivity • Based on the increasing trend both in historical and predicted Temperature data as well as high regional variability, the temperature related exposure and sensitivity are Moderate to High; • Since Rainfall indicates no trend with higher frequency of extreme events observed and predicted, moisture stress in the month of May is expected to be Moderate.

39. Preliminary Results (Landscape Exposure) LE= topography+ hydrology+ geography (t+h+g) As the series of Maps indicate, the Landscape is characterized by mountainous/hilly topography with moderate to high slope gradients dominated by Southern & Western facing aspects (that are generally dry), as well as the hydrology is characterized by extreme events; the Landscape Exposure is considered Moderate.

41. First order ward level vulnerability ranking (based on field survey & gateway system)

42. Preliminary Results: Priority Themes for EBA

43. Adaptation decision (sample) • B: Project name: Wildlife and Forest Conservation 1. Activity Options: • Increase tourism • Improve conservation of forest resources • Protect and conserve water resources • Conserve wildlife, grassland and habitat • Conserve biodiversity 2. Objectives: • Enhance tourism • Publicize and promote Panchase conservation area widely • Manage wildlife by protecting/improving habitats • Stop deforestation and forest fire • Identify and manage important medicinal herbs to increase income source 3. Operations (Activities): • Local people should be made aware and concerned about the value of conservation • Conservation with the help of helping/supportive local organizations • Create fire lines to avoid forest fire • Completely avoid/stop illegal hunting • Carry out afforestation in barren land to conserve habitat • Improve Public awareness through knowledge sharing • Give special importance to endangered special for their conservation Resources necessary: • Technician’s service and technical knowhow; Financial support • Improve human resources by building capacity, transfer skills, and conduct training

44. Adaptation Scenario Building Process a • 4 VDC clusters were formed local communities were engaged in listing possible adaptation activities based on the Vulnerability scenario discussed • This shared learning methods helped identify 7 thematic activities • Out of these 2 to 3 options were prioritized one of which is on Forest and Biodiversity Conservation

45. THANK YOU