A comparative analysis of firearm regulation in Southern Africa & beyond: Practice & impact

1. A comparative analysis of firearm regulation in Southern Africa & beyond: Practice & impact Guy Lamb, Director, Safety and Violence Initiative (UCT)

2. SADC: Firearm regulatory timeline • Pre-2001: Diversity of regulatory controls throughout Southern Africa (mostly outdated) • 2004: SADC Protocol on the Control of Firearms, Ammunition and other Related Materials enters into force • 2008: SARPCCO standard operating procedures approved

3. SADC legislative dynamics & developments since 2004 • Outside SA: low levels of legal firearm possession & no production, low firearm violence rates • Slow track record of finalized legislative reform • Some practical progress: Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia & Tanzania • SA has been the legislative champion & innovator: Made most progress in legislative reforms & implementation

4. SADC firearm regulations: some common trends • 18 years= most common minimum licensing age • Background checks of varying degrees of rigor • Regular renewals of firearm licenses • Some limitations on the number of licensed firearms • Strong focus on policing of firearms • Competency testing increasingly being considered • Marking & recordkeeping prioritized • Destructionof surplus & obsolete firearms

5. Some comparisons

6. Some interesting regulations in other SADC countries • Botswana: • Issues a maximum of 400 licenses each year (shotguns & hunting rifles) via a lottery system; • Handguns banned; • Background checks – domestic violence & hunting offences • Mauritius: • Issues +/- 25 licenses issued each year (mainly for hunting); rarely handgun licenses

7. SADC firearm controls (excluding SA): Summing Up • Lots of talk of reform, limited quantifiable change & implementation • No studies on the impact of firearm controls • BUT: homicide rates have remained relatively constant, while SA’s firearm homicide rate has declined dramatically – WHY?

8. Reduction in the firearm homicide rate in SA (1995-2007) (Source UNODC)

9. Violent death by instrument in SA’s main cities: 1999-2008 (Source: NIMSS)

10. Firearm homicide: some international comparisons (source: UNODC)

11. What has been the impact of firearm control regulations in SA? • Researchers & gun control activists: Reduction in homicide due to more rigorous firearms control policy and legislation • SAPS (2012): “Tougher controls on the ownership, possession and use of firearms have seen a marked reduction in the incidence of gun related crime in recent years” • Do we have the evidence to support these claims? • Recent studies have shown correlation, & suggested a positive regulatory effect, but what impact of specific regulations?

12. Minimum age: licencing requirement • Some US studies suggest: minimum age licencing reduces access of children & youth to firearms, which then reduce possible suicides, homicides& unintentional shootings • No studies in South Africa to support or refute this

13. Competency testing • Only a very limited number of countries require firearm licence applicants to undergo a competency or safety test • No uniform approach • No rigorous studies have been undertaken on its impact (including South Africa)

14. Safe storage of firearms • US & Canadian studies indicate that safe storage of firearms in homes can reduce firearm homicides, suicides & injuries • No specific recent studies of the impact of safes on firearm violence in South Africa

15. Background checks No studies on the impact of background checks in South Africa Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act (1993) -USA: • Prohibited: former felons, adjudicated mental defectives, former mental patients, illegal drug users &addicts, juveniles… • 2013 US President Barack Obama claimed that 1.5 million “wrong people” had been prevented from acquiring a handgun

16. Policing operations • Studies of a select number of policing interventions suggest they can reduce firearm crime • Largely limited to the US: Kansas City, New York City, Indianapolis, Richmond, Boston & Pittsburgh • Involves: hotspot policing, targeted patrols, roadblocks, search-and seizure

17. What has been the impact of hot-spot / place-based policing? Rigorous reviews of research: hot spots policing can result in a noticeable reduction in crime particularly where more problem-oriented policing approaches are pursued

18. Sao Paulo homicide drop • Goertzel & Kahn (2009); Hartung(2009); Cerqueira(2010) & Risso (2014) • 70% reduction in homicide rate between 2000 & 2010 • Attributed to more effective policing methods including the better enforcement of strict gun-control legislation

19. Policing firearm operations in SA • From 2000: Targeted policing operations • Flagship intervention: Operation Sethunya(2003): roadblocks, inspection of premises and ‘stop and search’ actions(hotspots) • Confiscation of 14,000 firearms & 1.5 million rounds of ammunition • 3,000+ arrests for illegal possession of firearms &/or ammunition • Destruction of large numbers of firearms • Amnesty (2005) • Encouraged hand-in of unlawful/unwanted firearms • 104,000 firearms handed-in

20. Impact of SAPS operations on firearm homicide? (Source: SAPS)

21. Conclusion • SA: likely a combo effect • CDC review of US studies (2005): The evidence available from identified studies was insufficient to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws reviewed singly or in combination. A finding that evidence is insufficient to determine effectiveness means that we do not yet know what effect, if any, the law has on an outcome—not that the law has no effect on the outcome

22. A targeted, evidence-driven approach to reducing firearm violence