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Voting and Literacy Rate. Michael Billinger mb1911a@student.american.edu http://eagle1.american.edu/~mb1911a/ American University School of International Service SIS-600-5: Int'l Affairs Stats & Methods – Dr. Assen Assenov. Research Question & Hypothesis. Question-
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Voting and Literacy Rate Michael Billinger mb1911a@student.american.edu http://eagle1.american.edu/~mb1911a/ American University School of International Service SIS-600-5: Int'l Affairs Stats & Methods – Dr. Assen Assenov
Research Question & Hypothesis Question- What is the relationship between literacy rate and voter turn out? Hypothesis- Controlling for GDP per capita and enrollment rate in primary, secondary, and tertiary schools, countries with a higher literacy rate will have a higher voter turn out in elections.
Lit. Review “Explaining voter turnout patterns: An information theory” --John G. Matsusaka ● Question: What impact does information have on an individual's likelihood of voting? ● Findings: A person's expected benefit from casting a vote is increasing in his/her certainty that he or she is supporting the best candidate. As a result, a person is even more likely to vote when he/she becomes sure about which way to vote. “Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections” --Orley Ashenfelter and Stanley Kelley, Jr. ● Theory: There are different factors that account for level of voter participation than previously examined in traditional research, i.e. personal characteristics of voters, costs of voting, and the strategic value of voting. ● Findings: Education has the greatest impact on voting over all other personal characteristics, a literary test requirement for voting decreased the likelihood of participation, and the decision of a candidate to vote on beforehand increased the likelihood of voting.
Data Pippa Norris' Democracy Cross National Data Set -Release 3.0 March 2009 -Unit of Analysis- country -191 countries (highly reliable) Dependent Variable: voter turnout Level of Measurement: interval-ratio Independent Variables: Literacy Rate (interval-ratio) GDP per capita (interval-ratio) Combined gross enrollment ratio in primary/secondary/tertiary schools (interval ratio)
Descriptive Stats -On average, countries from the data set have a 72% voter turn out
Descriptive Stats (cont.) -Distribution of dependent variable follows a normal uni-modal curve, with a range from 23.7 to 94.5
Bivariate Analysis Research Hypothesis -Reject Ho. Avg voting and lit rate are weakly positively correlated. -Reject Ho. Avg voting and GDPPC are moderately positively correlated. -Reject Ho. Avg voting and gross enrollment are moderately positively correlated.
Regression Analysis Dependent Variable: Voter Turnout Interpretations: i)The association is statistically significant in all Models. ii) Literacy, GDPPC, and Enrollment Ratio all have a positive association with Voter Turnout. iii) In Model 3, 22.7% of the variation in Voter Turnout can be explained by its relationship to Literacy Rate, GDP per capita, and Enrollment Ratio. **p<.05, ***p< .001
Findings and Policy Implications of Research Findings: --According to the statistics, we accept the research hypothesis that controlling for GDP per capita and enrollment ratio in primary/secondary/tertiary schools, it should be expected that a country with a higher literacy rate is more likely to have more participants vote in an election. What are the policy implications of your findings? --If a government or group wants to try increase voter turnout in a country they should first work at developing the reading skills of the citizens. This should not only increase the amount of information available to them in making a decision about who to vote for, but also increase their confidence in voting.
