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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 29, 2013

Going Up for the Rebound. On Behalf of Maryland Economic Development Association. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 29, 2013. First Pitch. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*. Source: International Monetary Fund. * 2013-2014 data are projections.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 29, 2013

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  1. Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of Maryland Economic Development Association By: AnirbanBasu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 29, 2013

  2. First Pitch

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014* Source: International Monetary Fund *2013-2014 data are projections

  4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2013 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

  5. Debt by Country2012 Source: IMF

  6. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  7. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  8. S&P Select Sector Performance2012 Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

  9. Fourth Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

  10. Recession Watchas of April 2013 Source: Moody’s Economy

  11. Industrial ProductionFebruary 2001 through March 2013 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  12. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2013Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. Red Card/Pink Slip

  14. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through March 2013 Mar. 2013: +88K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  15. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMarch 2013 v. March 2012 All told 1,910K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  16. Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)March 2013 v. March 2012Absolute Change MD Total: +37.7K; +1.5% US Total (SA): +1,910K; +1.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA) March 2013 v. March 2012Absolute Change Baltimore Total: +27.4K; +2.1% MD Total (NSA): +30.8K; +1.2% US Total (SA): +1,910K; +1.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA) March 2013 v. March 2012 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +36.1K; +1.2% US Total (SA): +1,910K; +1.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) March 2013 v. March 2012 Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.4%

  20. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) March 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.6%

  21. Personal Income Growth, U.S. States (SA) 2012 v. 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Growth= +3.5%

  22. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)February 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  23. MD County Unemployment RatesFebruary 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  24. Federal Budget Revenues and Outlays2000 through 2016* Source: Congressional Budget Office *2013 through 2016 projected.

  25. States with Projected FY2013 Budget Shortfalls Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities "DK" indicates that a shortfall is projected but magnitude is not yet reported. *California's shortfall includes a $6.9 billion gap carried forward from FY12. Oregon's and Ohio's shortfalls are one half of the states' total projected shortfalls for the 2011-2013 biennium. Estimates of Ohio's two-year shortfall range from $6 to $8 billion. Nevada's shortfall is the midpoint of several estimates. Texas underfunded the state's Medicaid program when it enacted its FY12-13 biennial budget, leaving a roughly $4 billion budget hole that will need to be filled in FY13. Washington's shortfall total assumes that three-fourths of the state's $855 million mid-biennium shortfall will be closed in FY13.

  26. Infrastructure Report Cards for the U.S. and Maryland Source: American Society of Civil Engineers U.S. grades are for 2013, and MD grades are for 2011. MD grades for Drinking Water and Wastewater are only for the Baltimore Metro Area.

  27. Developments at the Port of Baltimore • The Port of Baltimore ranks 9th in the U.S. by cargo value and 11th by weight in 2012. • Baltimore ranks 1st for handling cars and farm and construction machinery (roll on/roll off). • 2012 was the best year yet for the Port of Baltimore, which saw cargo tonnage increase by 20 percent from 2011. • Baltimore is now only one of two East Coast ports to have a 50-foot channel and berth and is home to 4 new cranes capable of servicing the larger ships that will come through the expanded Panama Canal. • The Maryland Port Administration entered into a public-private partnership with Ports America in 2010, which is expected to produce 3,000 one-time construction jobs as well as 2,700 permanent direct, indirect and induced jobs. Source: Maryland Port Administration

  28. Baltimore CSX Rail Intermodal Facility • The new facility, planned for the Mount Clare Yard in southwest Baltimore City, will connect Baltimore to CSX’s emerging double-stack rail network. • Double-stacking containers on rail cars will increase efficiency and prevent Maryland from sustaining bottlenecks if the Panama Canal expansion brings more freight traffic through the Port of Baltimore as expected. • The project is estimated to cost $90 million, including $30 million to be contributed by the State of Maryland. • Construction will begin in Fall 2013 and is expected to complete by Spring 2015, hopefully before Baltimore receives its first super-sized container ship. Source: Maryland Department of Transportation

  29. Purple Line Red Line • With 19 stations, the East-West line will connect Woodlawn with lower East Baltimore, passing through the Inner Harbor and Harbor East. • The capital cost of the Light Rail project is $2.5 billion. • Pending funding, construction is expected to begin in 2015 -- operations potentially by 2021. • The Purple Line is a proposed 21-station light rail line extending from Bethesda in Montgomery County to New Carrollton in Prince George's County. • The East-West line will cost more than $2 billion. • Construction could begin in 2015 if funding is available and would likely require 3 to 5 years to complete. Source: Maryland Transit Administration

  30. Pad Save

  31. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through March 2013 3.57% 2.76% Source: Freddie Mac

  32. U.S. Housing StartsJanuary 1999 through March 2013 Source: Census Bureau

  33. Housing Inventory by Suburban MD+ March 2013 v. March 2012 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Mar. 2012: 6.5 months; Mar. 2013: 4.8 months

  34. Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction+ March 2013 v. March 2012 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Mar. 2012: 6.5 months; Mar. 2013: 4.8 months

  35. Existing Median Home Sale Prices – Select StatesDecember 2012, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: NAR, MAR, VAR, Zillow California: 27.0% Florida: 14.1%

  36. Put me in, Coach

  37. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index2005 – March 2013 Source: Conference Board

  38. U.S. Retail and Food Service SalesJanuary 2002 through March 2013 Source: Census Bureau

  39. Sales Growth by Type of BusinessMarch 2013 v. March 2012 Source: Census Bureau

  40. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through March 2013 Source: Conference Board

  41. Fourth Quarter • Economy slowed markedly during last year’s fourth quarter; • First half of 2013 also shaping up to be quite soft, though first two months of the year were a bit better than expected – sequester will gradually grind into the economy and impact the data; • Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; • Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter; • One of the greatest sources of concern is the growing divergence between financial market performance and economic performance; and • Maryland could be in trouble, but to date, the formula has produced generally respectable results.

  42. Thank You • You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com • If you are interested in up-to-date data, please visit our website at www.sagepolicy.com • Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) • Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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