EDC - En appui aux exportations et investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient

1. EDC - En appui aux exportations et investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient Mars 2013

2. Agenda • Rôle d’EDC • Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe

3. Rôle d’EDC • Appuyer et développer le commerce extérieur du Canada et ses efforts commerciaux sur la scène internationale • Offrir des solutions de financement et d’assurance aux exportateurs et aux investisseurs canadiens • Offrir des solutions de financement aux acheteurs étrangers qui achètent de bien et services canadien ou qui investisse au Canada.

4. Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du GolfeWorld Trade Centre Montréal Presenté par: John Bitzan, analyste des risquespolitiques, afrique et moyen orient, Centre d’informationéconomique et politique March 14, 2013

5. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries

6. Common Attributes • Conservative societies • Governments have close ties with West • Little taxation = Little representation • Mostly dependent on energy exports • Employment: expats over-represented in private sector

7. Saudi Arabia – Political Overview • Political Structure • Absolute monarchy • Strengths • Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy

8. Saudi Arabia - Political Overview – Strengths: Deep Pockets salary bonuses, housing investment, etc. Source: EIU/Haver

9. Saudi Arabia – Political Overview • Political Structure • Absolute monarchy • Strengths • Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy • Weaknesses • Aging leadership, alienated minority, socio-economic issues

10. Saudi Arabia – Political Overview – Weaknesses: Succession Les filsd’ibn Saud – 2ième génération

11. Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview • Economic Structure Source: EIU/Haver

12. Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview • Strengths • Government finances, industrial investment, trade surpluses Source: EIU/Haver

13. Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview • Weaknesses • Unemployment, spending trends Source: JadwaInvestments, Paul Gamble, SaudiArabia’sComingOil and Fiscal Challenge, July 2011

14. Saudi Arabia – Trade with Canada Source: Industry Canada/StatsCan

15. United Arab Emirates – Political Overview • Political Structure • Federation of Emirates • Strengths • Popular legitimacy • Weaknesses • Loose federation

16. UAE– Economic Overview • Structure Source: EIU/Haver

17. UAE– Economic Overview • Structure • Strengths • Government finances • Diversified • Weaknesses • Real estate, Dubai debt

18. UAE– Economic Overview • Weaknesses • Real estate, Dubai debt Source: National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Economic Research Dep’t

19. UAE– Economic Overview • Weaknesses • Real estate, Dubai debt Source: IMF, UAE Article IV, 2012

20. UAE – Trade with Canada

21. UAE – Trade with Canada Did the UAE-Canada airline dispute affect trade?

22. UAE – Trade with Canada Probably not…

23. Kuwait– Political Overview • Political Structure • Monarchy balanced by parliament • Strengths • Active parliament, relatively free press • Weaknesses • Political paralysis, no progress on foreign investment

24. Kuwait – Economic Overview • Strengths • High GDP per capita, massive oil reserves, fiscal surpluses

25. Kuwait – Economic Overview • Weaknesses • Very oil dependent, government over-spending

26. Kuwait – Economic Overview • Weaknesses • Very oil dependent, government over-spending

27. Kuwait – Trade with Canada

28. Bahrain – Political Overview • Political Structure • Monarchy with weakened parliament • Weaknesses • Unresolved tensions (post-2011), sectarian division

29. Bahrain – Economic Overview • Economic Structure • Strengths • Relatively diversified, regional financial hub

30. Bahrain – Economic Overview • Weaknesses • Diminishing oil reserves, high “break-even” oil price Source: IMF, Article IV, UAE, 2011

31. Bahrain – Trade with Canada

32. Oman – Political Overview • Political Structure • Absolute monarchy • Strengths • Ruler popular • Weaknesses • Succession, over-personalized rule, limited political reforms

33. Oman – Economic Overview • Economic Structure

34. Oman – Economic Overview • Economic Structure • Strengths • Good economic policy record, fiscal surpluses • Weaknesses • Low oil reserves, domestic gas shortage

35. Oman – Trade with Canada

36. Qatar– Political Overview • Political Structure • Absolute monarchy • Strengths • Population well-off and generally satisfied • Weaknesses • Local resentment of expats

37. Qatar – Economic Overview • Economic Structure • Strengths • Highest GDP per capita in world, world’s 3rd largest natural gas reserves, biggest LNG exporter

38. Screen clipping taken: 3/12/2013, 1:08 AM Qatar – Economic Overview • Weaknesses • High spending, high external debt to GDP ratio (~75%)

39. Qatar – Trade with Canada

40. Other Data: Ease of Doing Business Rankings (World Bank)

41. Personnes Ressources Jean Francois Croft Représentant en chef, Moyen-Orient Tel: (613) 597-7882 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: jcroft@edc.ca Vicky Brouillard Directricerégionale, Méditerranée orientale et Moyen-Orient Tel: (613) 597-8696 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: vbrouillard@edc.ca Kristien Buckingham Coordinatrice, Moyen-Orient – basé a Abu Dhabi Tel: (613) 597-3359, Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: kbuckingham@edc.ca John Bitzan Analyste des risquespolitiques, Afrique et Moyen-Orient Tel: (613) 598-2713 Courriel: jbitzan@edc.ca www.edc.ca

42. Merci! Questions?