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Forecasting Ecosystem Shifts in Response to Climate Change

Dr. Jim Westervelt Construction Engineering Research Lab Engineer Research and Development Center Dr. William Hargrove Forest Service January 2010. Forecasting Ecosystem Shifts in Response to Climate Change. Outline. Question Approach Results Discussion Conclusion. Question. Ideal:

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Forecasting Ecosystem Shifts in Response to Climate Change

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  1. Dr. Jim Westervelt Construction Engineering Research Lab Engineer Research and Development Center Dr. William Hargrove Forest Service January 2010 Forecasting Ecosystem Shifts in Response to Climate Change

  2. Outline • Question • Approach • Results • Discussion • Conclusion

  3. Question Ideal: How and when will ecosystems shift in response to climate change? Two parts: • Where can I currently find ecosystem driver conditions that match forecasted driver conditions? How and when will current ecosystems shift in response?

  4. Approach • Identify a set of ecosystem drivers • Develop global maps of those drivers • For current and future conditions • Conduct a cluster analysis • To group related areas • Correlate clusters with current ecosystems • Forecast future ecosystem conditions

  5. Ecosystem drivers 1. Precipitation during the locally hottest quarter 2. Precipitation during the locally coldest quarter 3. Precipitation during the locally driest quarter 4. Precipitation during the locally wettest quarter 5. Ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration 6. Temperature during the coldest locally quarter 7. Temperature during the hottest locally quarter 8. Sum of monthly Temp avg where Temp avg >= 5 deg C 9. Integer number of consecutive months where Temp avg >= 5 deg C 10. Available water holding capacity of soil 11. Bulk density of soil 12. Carbon content of soil 13. Nitrogen content of soil 14. Compound topographic index (relative wetness) 15. Solar interception 16. Day/night diurnal temperature difference

  6. Develop global maps of drivers • Choose general circulation models (GCM) • Hadley and PCM (high and low) • Choose climate scenarios • A1 (higher CO2) and B1(lower CO2) • Choose time • Current, 2050, 2100 • Collect maps (for current and 8 futures)

  7. Scenarios • A1 scenarios characterized by: • Rapid economic growth. • A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. • The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. • A convergent world. • B1 scenarios are characterized by: • Rapid economic growth as in A1 • Rapid changes towards a service and information economy. • Population as in A1. • Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. • An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.

  8. Cluster Analysis • Convert all maps to standard-deviation form • Run cluster analysis (30,000 clusters) Grouping all 9 sets across the world!! Hargrove and Hoffman

  9. Illinois Raw Clusters 2100 PCM B1 Scenario 2050 2000

  10. Illinois Raw Clusters 2100 Hadley B1 Scenario 2050 2000

  11. Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems • Choose ecosystem map • GAP • US • 533 types • TNC • Global • 814 types

  12. Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems TNC GAP

  13. Apply Correlations to Future Conditions 2000 TNC GAP 2050 2100 Hadley model – A1 scenario (high-high)

  14. Results

  15. Forest Service Application PCM, Scenario A1, 200-2100 - Chestnut_oak Hadley, Scenario A1, 2050 - Longleaf_pine http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeranges/climate_change/index.html

  16. Sample GAP – Fort Knox

  17. Sample TNC – Fort Knox

  18. Sample Similar – Fort Knox

  19. Illinois GAP – Current Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay

  20. Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2050 Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay

  21. Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2100 Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay

  22. Illinois TNC – Current Central Tallgrass Prairie North Central Tillplain Interior Low Plateau Ozarks Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie

  23. Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2050 North Central Tillplain Central Tallgrass Prairie Interior Low Plateau Ozarks Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie

  24. Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2100 Central Tallgrass Prairie North Central Tillplain Ozarks Interior Low Plateau Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie

  25. East-Cent Ill – Similar – Current

  26. East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2050

  27. East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2100

  28. Discussion • We have a process for turning GCM->RCM forecasts into potential future ecosystem maps. • We applied the process to the last round of forecasts • Ready to apply to the next round • Do s.d. maps solve the apples-to-oranges question?

  29. Next? Two parts: • Forecasted conditions currently support what ecosystems? ✔ • How and when will current ecosystems shift in response? • Resilience • Persistence • Seed distribution rates • ??

  30. Cedar Infestation, Nebraska Fire Ants and Cave Crickets, Ft Hood Some Netlogo Models • Quick • Spatial • Agent-based Striped Newt, Ft. Stewart Feral Hogs, Fort Benning Gopher Tortoise, Ft. Benning

  31. Questions?? • Sample Forest Service forecasts of movement of optimal tree habitat: • http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeranges/climate_change/index.html • ERDC-CERL forecasts of ecosystem shifts around military installations: • http://earth.cecer.army.mil

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