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Population Part IV Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb? and Demographic Transition Models

Population Part IV Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb? and Demographic Transition Models. A Population Bomb?. Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England) --Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly --Believed people needed to practice

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Population Part IV Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb? and Demographic Transition Models

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  1. Population Part IVThomas Malthus, Population Bomb? and Demographic Transition Models

  2. A Population Bomb? • Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England) --Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly • --Believed people needed to practice • ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or there needed to be a • disaster to increase CDR in order to • solve population problem

  3. Neo-Malthusians • Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought: • 1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology • 2. new population “stripping” world of resources • Ehrlich (1960s) • warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production. • No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehhrlich’s thoughts?

  4. Critics of Malthus • Resources are not fixed: possibilism and technology • Lack of food resulted from distribution of wealth rather than insufficient food • Population growth can stimulate economic growth • More people=more consumers, more creativity

  5. Demographic Transition

  6. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development.

  7. Demographic Transition - Stage 1 Hunter-gatherer society –population fluctuations depended on supply of meat and vegetation. • High Birth Rate • Agricultural society (Agricultural Revolution) • High Death Rate • Epidemics and plagues • Famine • War • Low Natural Increase Rate • Stationary population growth

  8. Demographic Transition - Stage 1 • Sign. Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

  9. Demographic Transition - Stage 2 • High Birth Rate • Declining Death Rate • Divided into Two Parts 1) Industrial Revolution 2) Medical Revolution • High Natural Increase Rate • High expanding population growth

  10. Demographic Transition - Stage 2 • Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s • Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s • European colonization brought medical advancements • Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

  11. Demographic Transition - Stage 3 • Declining Birth Rate • Urbanization • Wealth • Education • Contraceptives • Low Death Rate • Low Natural Increase Rate • Slow expanding population growth

  12. Demographic Transition - Stage 3 • Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s • Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the second half of the 1900s • Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa

  13. Demographic Transition - Stage 4 • Low Birth Rate • Low TFR • Women highly involved in education and workforce • Low Death Rate • Low to no Natural Increase Rate • Stationary Population Growth • This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society.

  14. Demographic Transition - Stage 4 • Current Examples: • Many European countries (Italy, France) • United States • Japan • STAGE 5?

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