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Lies, Damn Lies, and A Look Back at The Election of 2000

Lies, Damn Lies, and A Look Back at The Election of 2000. ICTM 2004. Kathleen Rapp Smith. There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics…. Benjamin Disraeli... as attributed to Mark Twain in his Autobiography. Why Statistics?. What better way to relate

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Lies, Damn Lies, and A Look Back at The Election of 2000

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  1. Lies, Damn Lies, and A Look Back at The Election of 2000 ICTM 2004 Kathleen Rapp Smith

  2. There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics…. Benjamin Disraeli... as attributed to Mark Twain in his Autobiography

  3. Why Statistics? • What better way to relate math to real life? • What better way to bring the media into math class? • What better source of non-routine problems? • What better way to integrate other subjects? • What could be a more useful life skill? • What better way to span the math curriculum?

  4. An Algebra Lesson • Statement: “Gore is up in Michigan 45% to 37%, still a statistical dead heat when considering the 4 point margin of error.” True or False?

  5. What does “margin of error” mean? Does it apply to each candidate or to the difference between them? What do we do with the unreported 18%? What does “dead heat” mean? How could we model this? How can we engage the students with this question? What questions could be addressed?

  6. “Gore is up in Michigan 45% to 37%, still a statistical dead heat when considering the 4 point margin of error.”

  7. Some Additional Questions? • How was this information obtained? • How many people need to be contacted? • How much does it cost? • What exactly is “margin of error”? • What are other sampling problems?

  8. The worst question ever….. Are you in favor of direct retaliatory measures against Franco’s piracy?

  9. IS THIS THE CAUSE OF ALL THE FUSS?

  10. McREYNOLDS’ VOTES BY COUNTY

  11. Where do they come from? How are they conducted? How are they interpreted? What went wrong? What points do we want to make with the students? How do we engage them with this issue? A Look at Exit Polls

  12. Bush 2,912,790 Gore: 2,912,253 A difference of 537votes! Why not just flip a coin? What was the Final “Official” Vote in Florida?

  13. What About the Electoral College?

  14. What you might address: • History of Electoral College • Current setup of the College • Does it need to be changed?

  15. The Electoral College system tends to exaggerate the vote: Clinton Dole Popular Vote 49% 41%Electoral College 70% 30% States Won 62% 38%

  16. Visit the Website: www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith/ smithka@cmi.k12.il.us And enjoy the election of 2004...

  17. Election 2002 Websites Where we will put all the stuff you have seen today www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith National archives has a nice informational site on the Electoral College and the 2000 election, http://www.nara.gov/fedreg/elctcoll/2000res.html 108 pages of article titles pertaining to the 2000 election. http://www.dailynews.yahoo.com/fc/us/Presidential_Election_2000/ The results of the exit polling in Florida www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/fl_epollgridPres.html Supreme Court of Florida: The Presidential Election Case http://www.flcourts.org http://www.flcourts.org/sct/sctdocs/ops/sc00-2431-remand.pdf A Note on the Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach http://www.madison.hss.cmu.edu/ The Electoral College http://www.fec.gov/pages/ecmenu2.htm M123 -Apportionment Methods http://www.brinkley.isu.edu/~hoffjame/m123/apportion.html Palm Beach County Election Analysis http://www.bestbookmarks.com/election/#links Journal of Statistics Education http://www.amstat.org/pubtications/jse/secure/v8n3/gourgey.cfm

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