Global Forests

1. Global Forests Prof. Jeffrey R. Vincent Graduate School of IR/PS, UCSD April 18, 2005

2. Outline • Info about me • Overview: forests and people • Deforestation: causes • Deforestation: policy responses • “Score card” for forest services

3. IR/PS • Graduate School of International Relations & Pacific Studies • Main degree program: Master of International Relations and Pacific Affairs (MPIA) • Combines management, political science, economics • International environmental policy career concentration • Specialized track within MPIA • For students interested in careers as environmental professionals in public, private, and nonprofit sectors • Individual courses are open to undergraduates

4. My areas of research • Biodiversity conservation and timber harvesting in Southeast Asian rainforests • Corruption in the global forest sector • Air pollution, regional climate change, and agriculture in South Asia • Adjusting national income accounts for natural resource depletion

5. Overview: forests and people

6. What is a “forest”? • IGBP: “area dominated by trees forming a closed or partially closed canopy” • According to this definition, 22% of world’s land area was forested in 1993 • FAO: “areas with a minimum crown cover of 10% and minimum tree height of 5 m” • According to this definition, 27% of world’s land area was forested in 1995

9. Benefits of forests to humans • Timber production • Fuelwood collection • Medicinals and other traditional products • Recreational opportunities • CO2 sequestration • Hydrological functions • Genetic resource values

16. Human impact on forests • Deforestation: permanent loss of forest cover • Fragmentation: discontinuities in forest cover, resulting in reduced habitat value • Degradation: e.g., due to logging • Forest fires: can be natural, but 90% are human-caused • Pollution: e.g., acid rain

20. Deforestation: causes

21. Global deforestation • Between 1990 and 2000, 94 million hectares of forest were lost • About two Californias

22. How much of world’s original (pre-human) forest cover has been lost? • Matthews (1983): 16% • Bryant et al. (1997): 50%

23. Deforestation is not occurring everywhere

25. Forest cover increased during 1990-2000 in the world’s most populous countries, China and India • And also in the U.S.

27. Myth 1:Deforestation is caused by consumption of timber in rich countries • Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%) • Most of industrial roundwood is consumed within countries where it is harvested, not exported (only 20%), directly or indirectly • Developing countries import more industrial roundwood and wood products than they export (by 18%)

28. Myth 2:Deforestation is caused by consumption of hamburgers in rich countries • Amazonia has never been a significant exporter of beef • 1982: accounted for only 0.0007% of U.S. beef consumption, mainly processed beef (e.g., sausage) • Most of beef is sold within Brazil • In fact, net importer of beef in most years • Same is true for Central America

29. Why is the deforestation rate higher in poorer countries? • Because they are more dependent on agriculture, which uses land • Countries’ economies undergo structural changes as they grow • The share of agriculture decreases, while the shares of manufacturing and services increase • People leave rural areas and move to cities • Hence, deforestation slows down as countries become richer

31. Why worry about deforestation? • If farmers determine that land is more valuable in agriculture than in forest, isn’t deforestation a good thing? • Don’t the benefits outweigh the costs?

32. Reasons to expect deforestation rates to be too high • Agricultural subsidies: exaggerate benefits of conversion • Insecure property rights: discourage land owners from thinking long term • Lack of markets: discourage land owners from managing forests for nontimber values

33. Agricultural subsidies • Ubiquitous • Driving force behind ranching in Brazil until recently • From the mid-1960s forward, the government of Brazil offered numerous fiscal and financial incentives to ranchers in the Amazon • Tax exemptions for ranching income • Tax credits for ranching investments • Subsidized loans (interest rate = 6-14% of market rate) • Value of ranch without incentives: –US$2,824,000 with incentives: +US$1,875,400

34. Insecure property rights • Case studies and cross-country statistical studies provide evidence that deforestation rates are higher when property rights are less secure • And in some countries, establishing property rights requires clearing the forest

35. Timber vs. nontimber values(Dixon and Lampietti 1995)

36. Deforestation: policy responses

37. Policy responses • Reduce agricultural subsidies • Strengthen property rights for forestland • Develop payment mechanisms for nontimber values, within and between countries

39. Direct payment mechanismsfor forest conservation • The Nature Conservancy • Private parks • Conservation concessions

40. Conservation concessions by Conservation International

41. “Score card” for forest services

43. The world is not running out of wood • Industrialized countries harvest less timber than they grow • Harvest from all sources is 79% of growth in North America, 59% in Europe, and only 16% in Russia • There is already a “tidal wave” of plantation timber, and more is on the way